Way too early 2022 mock draft

[call_me_ishmael]

General consensus is this is just a horrible draft like 2015, no?

[Joemailman]

General consensus is this is just a horrible draft like 2015, no?

I don't know yet. Seems weak at QB. Might not be one drafted in top 10. 4 teams (Lions, Giants, Jets, Eagles) have 2 1st round picks. Jets and Eagles also have 2 2nd round picks. They'll sure be disappointed if it's a weak draft.

[Joemailman]

Badgers LB Leo Chenal entering NFL draft.

[RashanGary]

Last year the thought was that it would be a deeper than usual draft. Due to Covid seniors were allowed a 5th year. A bunch of guys stayed in school. The 5th-7th rounds should be deeper than usual.

[Joemailman]

Draft Network had 17 edge rushers in its top 100. Good timing for the Packers. https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings

Jermaine Johnson of Florida St, Travon Walker of Georgia and Logan Hall of Houston have the kind of size Packers are looking for.

[texaspackerbacker]

Badgers LB Leo Chenal entering NFL draft.

A little bit unfortunate for the Badgers, but we've got a ton of high rated red shirts and recruits as LBs. Good Luck to him. He should be damn good in the NFL. He'd look good in green and gold about the 3rd or 4th round. Let's pick up one of those pass rushing OLBs in the first round.

[Joemailman]

According to Draft Network, number of players in Top 100 by position:

QB 6
RB 6
WR 12
TE 5
OT 8
IOL 9
IDL 6
EDGE 17
LB 11
CB 14
S 6

Could work out pretty well for the Packers. Packers have lack of depth at Edge and LB. One of the Smiths could be gone. Campbell will be a FA. Packers also have a bunch of WR's who will be FA's. Might be a year to stock that position. More than any year I can remember, what happens at end of year and free agency could impact what they do in the Draft.

[smuggler]

Top 100 players certainly includes more than 6 RB, if you're not taking into account positional scarcity or value. That's why no one bothers to draft a RB high, relatively speaking.

[Joemailman]

Top 100 players certainly includes more than 6 RB, if you're not taking into account positional scarcity or value. That's why no one bothers to draft a RB high, relatively speaking.

There were only 4 RB's taken in the 1st 100 picks of the draft last year. I don't know how much draft sites use positional value in their rankings. Quite a bit I would think. They're compiling what they see as the top draft prospects, not necessarily the top college players.

[smuggler]

Oh, of course, the number of backs drafted in the top-100 is quite different than the best 100 players, though.

Teams actually do draft based on positional scarcity and positional value. RB has the least to offer in those realms.

I guess my point is that a list of the top-100 prospects should be the 100 players most likely to succeed in the NFL, and there should actually be ~7-8 backs on that list, even if only 3-4 backs get drafted in the top-100. Meanwhile there should only be maybe 1 or 2 college safeties. Even if 5-6 safeties get drafted.

[call_me_ishmael]

I guess my point is that a list of the top-100 prospects should be the 100 players most likely to succeed in the NFL, and there should actually be ~7-8 backs on that list, even if only 3-4 backs get drafted in the top-100. Meanwhile there should only be maybe 1 or 2 college safeties. Even if 5-6 safeties get drafted.

I genuinely am super confused by the above. Why would only 1 or 2 safeties be the top 100 players but 7-8 rubbing backs would be?

[call_me_ishmael]

Pull another Rashan Gary this year. Draft an edgy, let 'em sit behind Prestone for a year. They desperately need a long boy at DE that can stop the run and make something happen there as well. I feel pretty good about the OL for a change.

[Fritz]

I genuinely am super confused by the above. Why would only 1 or 2 safeties be the top 100 players but 7-8 rubbing backs would be?

Rubbing backs - sounds kinda perverted.

I think the idea of that post is that it's more likely that about 7 - 8 running backs will make it, but only a couple of safeties will do as well?

[smuggler]

A lesser player at safety will get drafted higher than a better player at running back, because safeties are hard to find and running backs are easy to find.

[run pMc]

As with many things, it depends on Rodgers.
If Rodgers stays, they have a chance to keep Adams too. They'll need to extend Jaire since he'll be on his fifth year which is pricey.
All that is a way of saying they'll have to gut their roster to keep those guys, meaning both Smiths are gone... so they'll need OLB/EDGE defenders to start. You'd have Rashan and nobodies; maybe they bring back Mercilus as a solid veteran/rotational depth, but they'll need bodies. I think they draft an EDGE player high.

They will need to find a replacement for Chandon/Henry Black. That would be the other thing I'd look for on Day 2 - a CB/S type who can play in the slot. I don't think Jean-Charles is the answer. Rasul will be gone so Jaire and Stokes are on the outside; they can get by there but the slot and 3 safety looks are a question.

DeVondre Campbell is probably gone -- he's earned a good payday. If he didn't get interest for some reason they could bring him back, but I don't know if Gute goes bargain bin shopping or tries to draft a mid-round LB. It's like RB; most ILBs wear out and aren't highly valued, although I think Joe Barry values them more (and uses them better) than Mike Pettine. Maybe that counts for something.

WR continues to be iffy; MVS is a FA but he I don't think he'll get much interest unless he goes off in the playoffs. He's been out a lot this year. Amari has a long way to prove he's even a rotational player. Aside from him almost all the WRs are going to be RFA/FA's, so they'll have choices there.
Tonyan's injury also means they can bring him back on a cheap 1-2 year deal. I'm getting to the point where I'm against spending a lot for a TE in terms of draft capital or FA money unless they are a special player; the bust rate is high and it takes a long time for those who do stick to develop.

DL - Kenny needs help. Maybe Slaton makes a leap; Keke's been out so much it's hard to tell. Lowry's played well at times this year, but he's either gone or brought back on a short/cheap deal.
OL - Njiman is a ERFA or RFA - they can slap a R2 tender on him and if anyone bites they can draft his replacement. The rest of the group is solid enough for now, but it never hurts to use a mid/late round pick on a developmental/depth player.

If Rodgers is not here next season, Adams is probably gone as well and they will likely have lots of draft picks (if Rodgers is traded), a big hole at QB, and probably some cap space to work with. Next year the division looks like it won't be that strong, so there's that.

While he's made some big mistakes, I actually think Gute has done a decent job so far in his tenure in drafting and FA. He'll have his work cut out for him whether they extend Rodgers (which I think they should) or not.