When you had 16 games and 6 playoff spots, 10-6 would usually get you in, and 9-7 was 50-50. Now with 17 games and 7 playoff teams, that has moved to10-7 and 9-8. I don't think 8-9 teams will get in often if they keep the playoff berths at 7. It is true that right now the #7 seed in the NFC is 6-7. But 5 teams are 6-7, and I think someone will break through to 9-8. We'll see.
I posted this graphic earlier this year which is based on thousands of simulations. It shows 10-7 teams making playoffs 91% of the time, 9-8 teams at 50%, and 8-9 teams at 11%.
I posted this graphic earlier this year which is based on thousands of simulations. It shows 10-7 teams making playoffs 91% of the time, 9-8 teams at 50%, and 8-9 teams at 11%.

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