Final 2021 DVOA ratings

[esoxx]

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.

Needless to say, this is a very comprehensive way to evaluate teams. It thoroughly evaluates all three phases of the team - offense, defense, special teams.

Here's a shocker, the Packers finished #32 in Special Teams DVOA. Yuck

So, how do the playoff teams stack up in the DVOA ratings you ask? Well, there's one team that appears to be head and shoulders above the others.

That team is:

Tex's own Dallas Cowboys.

This is the first time Dallas has finished #1 in DVOA rating since their dynasty seasons of the early 90's. They finished #1 in 1992, 1993, 1994. For anyone that remembers those teams, they were certainly very well rounded and dominant.

Here are the top ten rankings for 2021:

1: Dallas Cowboys - Total DVOA 30.9%
2: Buffalo Bills - Total DVOA 27.7%3
3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Total DVOA 27.6%
4: New England Patriots - Total DVOA 23.3%
5: Los Angles Rams - Total DVOA 21.6%
6: San Francisco 49ers - Total DVOA 19.5%
7: Kansas City Chiefs - Total DVOA 17.5%
8: Seattle Seahawks - Total DVOA 11.8%
9: Green Bay Packers - Total DVOA 11.5%
10: Arizona Cardinals - Total DVOA 10.9%

Here's where the remaining playoff teams wound up.

15: Philadelphia Eagles - Total DVOA 3.8%
17: Cincinnati Bengals - Total DVOA 0.0%
20: Tennessee Titans - Total DVOA -3.0% (number 1 seed in AFC ha)
21: Las Vegas Raiders - Total DVOA -5.2%
24: Pittsburgh Steelers - Total DVOA - 10.4% (how are they in the playoffs)

Jax finished last at -31.3% Truly bad

No doubt GB's Total DVOA suffered b/c of their poor ST's (32 as noted), but also b/c of their defense (22). GB's offense was #2 behind TB. TB's defense was #9.

Dallas was impressive as they were #6 in offense, #2 in defense, and #6 in ST's.

Rodgers will need to play out of his ass to get the Packers an OWL.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2022/dallas-tops-final-2021-dvoa-ratings

[RashanGary]

It’s not a bad metric. I would put us around 9th. Average defense. Really good offense. Bad STs. Just a good team. The bright side is all of the other teams have issues this year too. Dallas isn’t as good as their DVOA shows them. Tampa is limping in. The Rams miss Robert Woods and haven’t had their offense on track since he went out. The Cardinals are just ok. SF is playing better but still not world beaters. There just isn’t a great team this year. We just need a little luck and a couple good games in a row and it’s our year.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Then again, DVOA isn't the be all and end all. The Saints would have been in the Super Bowl the last four years--according to total DVOA.

The Saints and Bills would have been in the Super Bowl in 2020 based on total DVOA (Buccaneers and Chiefs).
The Saints and Ravens would have been in the Super Bowl in 2019 (49ers and Chiefs).
The Saints and Chiefs would have been in the Super Bowl in 2018 (Rams and Patriots).
The Saints and Patriots would have been in the Super Bowl in 2017 (Eagles and PATRIOTS).
The Cowboys and Patriots would have been in the Super Bowl in 2016 (Falcons and PATRIOTS).
The Seahawks and Chiefs would have been in the Super Bowl in 2015 (Panthers and Broncos).

[RashanGary]

Then again, DVOA isn't the be all and end all. The Saints would have been in the Super Bowl the last four years--according to total DVOA.

The Saints and Bills would have been in the Super Bowl in 2020 based on total DVOA (Buccaneers and Chiefs).
The Saints and Ravens would have been in the Super Bowl in 2019 (49ers and Chiefs).
The Saints and Chiefs would have been in the Super Bowl in 2018 (Rams and Patriots).
The Saints and Patriots would have been in the Super Bowl in 2017 (Eagles and PATRIOTS).
The Cowboys and Patriots would have been in the Super Bowl in 2016 (Falcons and PATRIOTS).
The Seahawks and Chiefs would have been in the Super Bowl in 2015 (Panthers and Broncos).

A lot of times a team gets healthy and hot at the end and wins it. Their season cumulative DVOA doesn’t match with how they’re playing at the end. Conversely, a team that had a great DVOA season can get injured at the end or just be struggling with some things at the end.

It’s who is healthy and hot. We’re getting healthy but it remains to be seen if we’re hot. It might be some growing pains working the guys back in. I worry more about the first playoff game than the second. The NFCC game, if we make it, should have all of our guys back in back to back weeks.

This year could be the year. And maybe it’s not. It’s definitely up in the air. It should be an exciting ride.

[esoxx]

It's certainly not a predictor of who will be in or win the Super Bowl. There's too many factors including luck and officiating that can be a huge influencer on the result. But I don't think it should be brushed aside either.

One thing DVOA doesn't measure is penalties. There Dallas also excels, but not not in a good way. They led the league with 127 accepted penalties. Conversely, Green Bay had the least penalties in the league with 69. Being smart/disciplined in the playoffs is critical.

Further, it doesn't factor that Fat Mike is on the sidelines just waiting to make a stupid decision(s) in crunch time including clock mismanagement.

[RashanGary]

DVOA doesn’t account for Zadarius and Jaire playing. It is a cumulative stat with them being out. There’s no saying a healthy Packer team can’t out perform their season DVOA

[HarveyWallbangers]

DVOA doesn’t account for Zadarius and Jaire playing. It is a cumulative stat with them being out. There’s no saying a healthy Packer team can’t out perform their season DVOA

Or Bakh, Myers, and Cobb (for the last part of the year). We did lose Elgton and Tonyan (those guys played earlier in the year and probably helped the DVOA), but we are pretty healthy for this time of year.

[Bretsky]

Is Elgton done this year ? I know he was injured but forgot exactly what it was

[HarveyWallbangers]

Is Elgton done this year ? I know he was injured but forgot exactly what it was

Yes. Elgton, Tonyan, and Mercilus are done. MVS has a back injury, and we don't know his status yet. Everybody else is healthy.

[Upnorth]

In the year in review dvoa article our weighted dvoa (earlier games in season have less impact.) When eliminating loves 1.5 games we jump to #3 overall.
Outsiders doesn't claim dvoa is power rankings but rather efficiency rankings. Team 1 won't beat #32 gaurenteed, there is just a high probability. So #1 losing to #3 (for example) often happens. It's football, any given sunday

[Fritz]

Then again, DVOA isn't the be all and end all. The Saints would have been in the Super Bowl the last four years--according to total DVOA.

The Saints and Bills would have been in the Super Bowl in 2020 based on total DVOA (Buccaneers and Chiefs).
The Saints and Ravens would have been in the Super Bowl in 2019 (49ers and Chiefs).
The Saints and Chiefs would have been in the Super Bowl in 2018 (Rams and Patriots).
The Saints and Patriots would have been in the Super Bowl in 2017 (Eagles and PATRIOTS).
The Cowboys and Patriots would have been in the Super Bowl in 2016 (Falcons and PATRIOTS).
The Seahawks and Chiefs would have been in the Super Bowl in 2015 (Panthers and Broncos).

Harv, if you can figure out a way to monetize this, you'll be wealthy. You could create a playoff system and throw in a couple of other odd factors - penalty likelihoods or something - and have an entire league of nothing but playoffs each year, with your own DVOA Champion. It'd be like a fantasy league of sorts.

And Saints fans would be thrilled.

[RashanGary]

In the year in review dvoa article our weighted dvoa (earlier games in season have less impact.) When eliminating loves 1.5 games we jump to #3 overall.
Outsiders doesn't claim dvoa is power rankings but rather efficiency rankings. Team 1 won't beat #32 gaurenteed, there is just a high probability. So #1 losing to #3 (for example) often happens. It's football, any given sunday

Eliminating Loves 1.5 games is interesting. I’m glad they did that in the year in review article. It says what the eyeball test says…. We have a shot!

[esoxx]

Eliminating Loves 1.5 games is interesting. I’m glad they did that in the year in review article. It says what the eyeball test says…. We have a shot!

Of course we have a shot. It also doesn't hurt having home field advantage in the ice box, aka Lambeau Field. Packers the only team with an undefeated home record this season.

Packers are still clear favorites to win the Super Bowl:

FOOTBALL FUTURES
Super Bowl
ROT ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL LVI MONEYLINE
Green Bay Packers
+375
Kansas City Chiefs
+450
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+750
Buffalo Bills
+750
Tennessee Titans
+800
Los Angeles Rams
+1000
Dallas Cowboys
+1200
Cincinnati Bengals
+1800
New England Patriots
+2000
Arizona Cardinals
+2200
San Francisco 49ers
+2200
Philadelphia Eagles
+5000
Las Vegas Raiders
+5000
Pittsburgh Steelers
+8000

[run pMc]

It's particularly weird to see the Seahawks higher than the 13-4 Green Bay Packers. For that, you can blame the New Orleans Saints as well as Jordan Love. The Packers' total DVOA for the season is still being dragged down by their huge blowout loss to the Saints back in Week 1. The Packers move up to eighth in weighted DVOA, which no longer includes that game. Then the problem is Love's two games subbing in for Aaron Rodgers. In the version of weighted DVOA I use in the playoff odds simulation, I remove the Packers offense from those two games and it moves the Packers up to third behind only the Cowboys and Patriots. That plus the No. 1 seed makes them the clear Super Bowl favorites

Was wondering if they factored in the NO loss and JLove's play.

Also:

The New York Giants are the worst offense and the New York Jets are the worst defense. Green Bay finishes with the worst special teams.

[esoxx]

I wonder if a team has ever won a Super Bowl with the worst rated special teams?

Hopefully Moore can at least stabilize the return game a bit.