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  • Gute as GM after four drafts

    It's still a little early of course. But I think now we can see Gute's strategy and "philosophy."

    He became GM January of 2018. I give him a pass on the first draft and first year though Jaire was definitely a homerun pick, and MVS was a major contributor to Packer success, the only player besides Rodgers who almost pulled off an upset (what it was) against the Bucs.

    The Packers were in deep controversy in three of his first four years. After the overdue but necessary firing of MM, cold and heartless as it was executed, Gute & Murphy made an excellent choice in MLF, the most winning coach in his debut since the merger. He took over a team that was depleted with no depth at any positions: only a few stars left and some aging vets.

    2019 draft This and the 2022 were deep drafts, and Gute procured extra picks in both drafts. Stellar or lucky, take your pick, but he did know what he had. 2020 & 2021 were weak drafts and they made the best of it, with the sole scar being the not so loved Love pick, which still might turn out well. Gary, Savage, and Jenkins were a huge hall though I had wanted McLaurin in the 3rd: that was likely an MLF pick there.

    2020 draft They just got solid players in a weak draft. I am of the camp that the Love pick was a disaster, and the FO mishandled Rodgers who repeatedly stated he wanted to end his career in GB. They have now healed that wound. Hopefully, Gute has learned from this and moved on

    2021 draft There's a steady trend with Gute. His early picks are consistently safe and solid with less regard than in the past for positiional value. I did NOT like this at the time, but I am on board now. There were far too many reaches and settling for second bests under TT. Now taking good players in the second or third, whether they be running backs or centers opens up more possibilities on the board. He also doesn't try to fit square pegs into round holes. I think it's safe to say this is a key upgrade over the old strategy. Gute still retains much from the TT / Wolf tradition, but this is a pleasant upgrade.

    2022 draft This was the culmination. The Davante Adams trade was an absolute steal. Better a year early than a year late, and to get two extra high picks in the deepest draft that I remember was gold. And they capitalized. Gute made great value picks through round five: all starters or key rotational / back up guys. He completes his four year rebuild of the line. It's my favorite draft since I started following 13 years ago: basically a double draft imo (and per usual took a turn I did not expect).

    FA's under Gute. Name another team that did a better job the last three years in free agency. Not only was the haul in 2019 a score, but the FA's he's brought in were theft: Lazard, Tonyan, De'vondre Campbel, Rasul Douglas were players any team could have had. Gute has hugely improved on the most glaring defect in the TT regime.

    Both in the FA and moving around in the draft, Gute has outperformed Ted Thompson. His overall draft strategy to my mind is superior to TT's (2011-2017). He emerged shining after folks, several times questioned the future of Titletown (albeit the Rodgers / Love miscue was of his own making -- I did NOT think Gute would change and he proved me wrong).

    We now have one of the youngest and most talented teams in the league with good coaches (and I was always hopeful for Joe Barry after I dug into his background and pedigree). Gute's next challenge, and biggest, will be the post Rodgers era. But even the best organizations, like the Steelers & Ravens, struggle when it comes to QB.

    As to the playoffs, I regard that as somewhat of luck...... 2019 (they were lucky to get so far), 2020 (the Bucs were stacked, the oline lost the game -- Bakh out didn't help), 2021 (that team was decimated and gimpy like no Packer team I remember in 30 years. Healthy, they would have walked through the Superbowl). Next year (and as long as AR is QB) we can really be excited. I know folks are tired of dissapointment, but I really can't blame the team, MLF, or AR unless it be DREADFUL special teams but that was our Achilles, and Crosby's fall off, who could have predicted that??
    Last edited by Jaire; 05-08-2022, 04:54 PM.

  • #2
    Gutes is either lucky, or playing 3D chess in some regards. Getting Rodgers under contract while trading Adams for excellent draft capital was a coupe for the ages. If they pay Adams what the Raiders did then we lose even more good players.

    Rodgers can make it work with the weapons we have on offense. My critique would be not developing young WR with at least SOME top 3 round draft capital in preparation for this season. But I also loved this draft, the Walker pick aside. There are always things anyone would do different, but this roster is still stacked. Its young. Some tough choices will have to be made regarding 2nd contracts and letting good players walk entering 3rd contracts, but Gutes has proven up to the task so far.

    It will be interesting. I'm betting that Jones, Amos, and Preston are almost certainly gone after this season.
    The only time success comes before work is in the dictionary -- Vince Lombardi

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    • #3
      Originally posted by bobblehead View Post

      It will be interesting. I'm betting that Jones, Amos, and Preston are almost certainly gone after this season.
      The cap is being repressed by the NFL. It should be higher. Nevertheless if they can get this year's big contracts done early, they might beat the inflation that's coming (Jenkins, Gary, Jaire, and maybe Savage). As Gute said, the cap isn't as big a deal as fans make it. Letting Adams go (for a king's ransom) really helps with other signings. Jenkins / Gary / Jaire are gonna be at least $50 million per year, but the 2020 class contracts will give some breathing room.

      Amos > Savage; he's the glue back there and 30 isn't too old for safety. That will be interesting. We don't have Preston's replacement, and you really want three if you are going to contend. He will be year by year depending how/ if he declines: reliable and good value for what he does. I think he is most likely to stay actually. Jones is more valuable than merely than what he does on field. At least, his contract needs to be reworked next year. Of those Amos is hardest to replace, but it doesn't make sense to replace Preston imo.

      They must be very high on Walker to take him over Johnson & Ebiketie. Those guys usually aren't around at the bottom of round one. Still, their needs going forward are few, and can be replaced in one draft possibly: Edge, safety, RB, TE. (It's noteworthy they waited after the draft to tag Gary & Savage.)

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by bobblehead View Post
        Gutes is either lucky, or playing 3D chess in some regards.
        Indeed.

        But to Gute's credit some of the draft moves and getting huge extra draft capital in deep drafts, as well as the FA signings were not things Ted Thompson did. He gets some credit for at least taking advantage of the opportunities that came his way. What I'm most glad about is that he seems to have corrected and learned from his mistakes: this is also what I like maybe most about MLF. And it was the most frustrating to watch TT and MM stubbornly make the same mistakes year after year: that really seems to be behind us.

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        • #5
          He's been more good than bad. I'm not gonna overdo the praise, but he's a helluva lot better than Ted Thompson IMO. Bringing in solid FA players on D as well as knowing who to retain and who to let go helped a lot. I think he has also mostly handled the draft better - everything except the colossal blunder with Love.

          He and/or his people seem to use the cap a lot more effectively than Ted ever did also.
          What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?

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          • #6
            Solid take, Jaire.

            Don't agree with all of it but very well reasoned and thought out.

            Comment


            • #7
              Now, I switched my username from Tank Elf Duke to Anti-Polar Bear for a reason. Check out my grammatically fucked “Ted Is Trapped In the Closet” threads for the reason.

              But to say that the German Shepherd (Gutekunst) is a better GM, currently, than the Polar Bear (Thompson) once was is as ridiculous as the time Tony O’Day stopped rooting for the NHL. A hundred billion years from now, light from 2005 earth will reach a distant planet in some distant galaxy. The technologically super-advanced ETs there will witness the Polar Bear give birth to the Great Arm of Butte - with Sherman’s pick, nonetheless.

              And last I checked, the Polar Bear won a fluke ring as head honcho. German Shepherd? Cost Pack a ring by not drafting DK Metcalf, despite having 3 opportunities to do so. Polar Bear > German Shepherd.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Anti-Polar Bear View Post
                Polar Bear > German Shepherd.
                Apparently we have entered the Multiverse of Madness.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Anti-Polar Bear View Post
                  Cost Pack a ring by not drafting DK Metcalf, despite having 3 opportunities to do so. Polar Bear > German Shepherd.
                  hahaha

                  Forgot about that. Maybe you'll get over Metcalf in 5 to 10 years.

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                  • #10
                    wrong thread
                    I can't run no more
                    With that lawless crowd
                    While the killers in high places
                    Say their prayers out loud
                    But they've summoned, they've summoned up
                    A thundercloud
                    They're going to hear from me - Leonard Cohen

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Jaire View Post
                      hahaha

                      Forgot about that. Maybe you'll get over Metcalf in 5 to 10 years.
                      Is he over Joey Harrington yet?
                      2025 Ratpickers champion.

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                      • #12
                        One thing i keeo thinking is how under rated the draft of dillion is. He is a completely different style of back on the ground, and both are exceptional at there jobs.
                        They are both some of the best pass catching backs as well. If we have both on the field this year at the same time i can't wait to see what other defenses do....
                        I bet they both get 1400ish yards from scrimmage this year and its possible neither breaks 1000 yards rushing.
                        All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed they must rely exclusively on force.

                        George Orwell

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                        • #13
                          Dillon is damn good, and in hindsight, I'm glad we drafted him. However, he IS a different kind of RB, and IMO, not remotely as good as Aaron Jones. Dillon has a chance to be right up there with Derrick Henry as among the best of that kind of RB. I'd much rather have a game-breaking speed back like Jones, like Dalvin Cook, like Tony Pollard, and a few others as RB #1 with Dillon as the back up.

                          Also, it apparently isn't all that hard to find decent RBs. Kylin Hill, Patrick Taylor, Goodson who may or may not even make the team, etc.
                          What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Upnorth View Post
                            One thing i keeo thinking is how under rated the draft of dillion is. He is a completely different style of back on the ground, and both are exceptional at there jobs.
                            They are both some of the best pass catching backs as well. If we have both on the field this year at the same time i can't wait to see what other defenses do....
                            I bet they both get 1400ish yards from scrimmage this year and its possible neither breaks 1000 yards rushing.
                            With no DAdams the red zone Offense is what I really worry about. If Dillon becomes Christian Okoye and crushes it in with 2 tries from the 5 consistently he is a draft pick for the ages.
                            The only time success comes before work is in the dictionary -- Vince Lombardi

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by texaspackerbacker View Post
                              Dillon is damn good, and in hindsight, I'm glad we drafted him. However, he IS a different kind of RB, and IMO, not remotely as good as Aaron Jones. Dillon has a chance to be right up there with Derrick Henry as among the best of that kind of RB. I'd much rather have a game-breaking speed back like Jones, like Dalvin Cook, like Tony Pollard, and a few others as RB #1 with Dillon as the back up.

                              Also, it apparently isn't all that hard to find decent RBs. Kylin Hill, Patrick Taylor, Goodson who may or may not even make the team, etc.
                              For once I agree with you on this side. Dillon is the "inside the 30 back" imo. And I really hope Kylin Hill can come back good as ever because he was a steal in the 7th round. And honestly, Goodson was a steal for UDFA.
                              The only time success comes before work is in the dictionary -- Vince Lombardi

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