Our Offense

[beveaux1]

Our offense through six games has been a train wreck. I don’t think that statement is the wild rambling of someone who bleeds green and gold. I look at it as a statement of fact. Why are the Packers in this shape and what can be done to correct it? Also, should we have expected this kind of fall?

To answer the first question, let’s look at our offense of the past 2 years. We had a true #1 WR in Adams, who arguably had improved to the point of being a top 3 WR in the NFL. We also had a deep threat with suspect hands in MVS that added a couple of branches each year to his route tree as a number 3 receiver. Our number 2 receiver was a tall, slow, big bodied, sure-handed receiver with excellent blocking ability in Lazard. In reserve, we had Cobb the last year, when healthy, and no one else of any consequence. Our usual compliment of average to below average FB/TEs in Tonyan, DeGuara, and Lewis completed the receiver picture.

Our RBs were Jones and Dillon, one of the best combos of running and receiving in the league. Our QB was Rodgers, who won the MVP award the past two years, and was rejuvenated after having a couple of bad years (for him) at the end of the McCarthy era.

The offensive line was one of the best in the league, seemingly unaffected by injury or shuffling. Bak, Jenkins, Myers, Patrick, and Turner could be interchanged with Newman, Runyon, Kelly, Nijman, Taylor, or Wagner. Although every combination wasn’t perfect, the glaring problems with one of these combinations were the exception rather than the rule.

[beveaux1]

This offseason we had one mission, retain Rodgers, who had been unhappy since the drafting of a successor, for the foreseeable future. We fans did not understand that Adams was also unhappy here and would not only ask to be traded, but be granted his wish and sent to a new team. The re-signing of Rodgers did not really help a precarious cap situation, but the loss of Adams did allow us to re-sign a LB and a CB but not MVS, who left in free agency.

It was clear after the draft that defense was still the priority of the front office as the two draft picks we had in the first round were used on a LB and a DL. We drafted a developmental WR from a small school in the 2nd round as well as another developmental WR, Doubs, from a small school in the 4th round. We finished drafting skill players with a flyer on a 7th round WR.

During free agency we picked up two players that would help our special teams, both defenders. We also picked up a DL and one veteran WR, Watkins, who had played very little the past two years due to injury. In reality, our cap situation did not allow us to make reasonable offers to skill players that would command more than a minimal investment.

During training camp, our 2nd round WR, Watson, had surgery and missed most of camp. Our free agent WR, Watkins was injured after 2 games and placed on IR, Cobb was injured in the 6th game and will likely be placed on IR.

[beveaux1]

WR is known to be one of the most difficult positions to master from the college game to the pro game. The difficulty is the precise running of routes. Cutting where you need to cut and being where you’re supposed to be. When a defender is placed in front of you, do not round your break or change the depth of your route. In addition, knowing which way to break based upon coverage-inside or outside shoulder.

Small school developmental WRs need time to learn these tricks and they don’t have time when the bench is depleted.

This season, Lazard became our #1 WR, Watkins, Dobbs our #2, and Cobb, our #3. All other skill players remained the same and our OL looked much as it did last year. So why are we spinning our wheels on offense?

[beveaux1]

Our approach has been to use the running game and scheme our receivers free. Our problem is that schemes generally work a couple of times before they’re on tape and defenses develop ways to stop them. If you have no deep threat, defenders crowd the line and play man against receivers they don’t fear. Our feeling going in to this year is that defenses will fear Rodgers and Rodgers will make his receivers better. The problem is two-fold. Our OL has played poorly. That can be corrected.

The bigger problem is that we have no WR that can beat man coverage like Adams and MVS could. There is very little room for error. If a receiver drops a perfect pass in tight coverage. We punt. If Rodgers throws slightly behind a covered receiver, it’s knocked away and we punt. If the receiver catches the ball falling down in the flat, there’s no YAC and we punt. If we run the ball 3 straight plays and have one stopped run, we punt. In years past we had Adams that had a step or two on a defender so he didn’t need a perfect pass. In fact, there was always Adams if we needed yardage for a first down. This year...not so much. Our drives are slogs and one bad play will ruin them because we have no big play ability with the pass. We can run and do have big play ability with Jones if, and this is a big if, we are able to pass down field effectively. Otherwise, even an average team will crowd the line and take away the run
.
Move on to line play. Remember, offensive linemen were drafted either on their ability to run block, or to pass block. Very few OL are good at both. How was our line constructed? With Rodgers, it was a pass blocking line. Myers is a big center replacing a pass blocking center. He’s built for LaFleur’s scheme. Most of our other linemen are pass blockers first, play this year excluded. When the defense plays to take away the run, a pass blocking line will have trouble. I expect we’ll have trouble until Doubs develops or Watkins comes back or we acquire someone who can stress the defense regularly.

[beveaux1]

In answer to the 2nd question, there’s only a couple of things that can improve our offense. Improved line play both in pass blocking and run blocking. We’ve never been a run first team and even last year we had trouble running when the defense played to stop our running game. Without a WR threat, defenses will crowd the line to stop the run and dare us to beat them deep. The line will have to be much better than they have been, better than last year at running the ball. I think we’ll struggle with that.

Also, a trade to get an established receiver that can stress the defense could improve our offense. I don’t think this will happen due to our cap situation and the way we hoard draft choices.

My guess is, what you see is what you get. There may be some improvement as the year goes on and as Doubs and/or Watson develops, but it won’t be earth-shattering.

The final question is should we have expected this. I think the answer is yes. We should have known that our offense would be below average to poor. The front office buffing up the defense should have been a large clue. I think they expected a big drop off. Also, there was the failure to draft any WR talent since Adams (MVS excluded). Our cupboards were bare and never re-stocked.

[RashanGary]

The OL is a bigger problem than the receivers. But the receivers are a problem too.

[run pMc]

Point of clarification: Bahk was not available last year, Jenkins and Tonyan tore their ACLs mid way through. The OL has regressed badly and it's a bit baffling considering they should be better than last year. It's possible Bahk and Jenkins are working back from their injuries.
Beyond that, you're right about the WRs struggling to beat man coverage, but there are numerous times where Rodgers has either ignored or not even seen wide open receivers.

The offense has been very poor at anything beyond the short passing game -- Rodgers has not been accurate (which could either be fluky or signs of physical decline, your pick) and they really miss Adams and the things he could do better than anyone else on the roster. Tonyan is still rounding back to form and there's nobody who scares a DB or defensive coach. Lazard is a good player but he's at best a WR2, and he started the year with a bad ankle. Those can be tough lingering injuries for WRs -- ask Davante. Watkins and Cobb aren't awful but they are known injury risks, I think the team was hoping the rookies would be improving enough to pick up in the 2nd half of the season. Well, Amari Rodgers is going to be lucky to survive the season, Watson has been hurt and his unavailability is both concerning and disappointing and Doubs is going to be good but he's inconsistent and has the dropsies. That's not uncommon (see: Finley, Dropvante, James Jones, etc.) but it's not like he's J'Mon Moore. Winfree might give them some production because he knows the offense but he's JAG and at this point in his career I wouldn't bet on it.

The idea -- or so I thought -- was that they were going to lean heavily on Jones and Dillon, and even entertained this Pony package thing which has been a dud. Jones is a good player and has arguably been their best player on offense (most productive) and yet they go long stretches where he barely touches the ball. It's inexplicable. Dillon is a good player, but I hear people whisper that maybe he was distracted for personal reasons this offseason. "Plodzilla" etc. -- he hasn't looked as explosive but he's also been getting the ball in more difficult-to-run scenarios. Neither one is catching the ball as well -- their catch % is down which goes back to Rodgers missing what should be easy outlet throws to them.

They are doing the lazy RPO thing based on numbers in the box, and defenses are baiting them into it and either stopping them with disguises or just outplaying them.

It's a team with some talent but they are underperforming, and at least some of that falls on the coaches. The OL played an atrocious game against the Jets, that falls on the players. Putting Hanson in for Newman is a laughably bad idea.
I'm not sure this team knows how to fix its issues.

They are NOT a playoff team right now.

[beveaux1]

Dillon is not an explosive player, but he's a very good running back that would get better the more they use him. I think he gets a bad rap because Jones is the only explosive player on offense, but is too fragile to be used more than 15 or so times a game.

Comparisons between them are not really fair. It's apples to oranges. Dillon can handle 20 or more touches a game and he would get better with more use. Jones is the only game breaker on offense.

[beveaux1]

Bahk was not available last year, but I was comparing us to the offense of the last two years. Some of the OL I mentioned were on the 2020 team.

[Fritz]

Wait wait wait, Run - Some juicy gossip here?

"I hear people whisper that maybe he was distracted for personal reasons this offseason. "Plodzilla" etc. -- he hasn't looked as explosive"

Do tell.

He certainly does not look explosive at all this year. He's not running over or through people either like he did last year. And he's still young.

So what's the word on the street?

[Bretsky]

The OL is a bigger problem than the receivers. But the receivers are a problem too.

This is definitely poll worthy

I'm not sure which way I'd vote.

Talent wise, wouldn't the talent level of our OL be rated higher than WR overall ?

We neglected the WR position too long and tried to solve it out of desperation be taking a HAIL WATSON by giving up our two 2nd round picks. So far that seems like our Hail Mary failed.

[Bretsky]

our offense through six games averaging a sad 17.8 points per game.

Worst six game stint point wise during AROD's career when he was the QB

[texaspackerbacker]

beaveaux, there are a few things I question or disagree with in your posts above even though probably less than half.

My primary disagreement is that our O Line was all that great last year or the year before with Bakhtiari or whatever. My position is that people are just noticing the mediocrity this year. Ditto that about A.J. Dillon - a lot of people used to think he was remotely as good as Aaron Jones. Overall, though, it hasn't been a "train wreck", just a little bit below what it should be.

Regarding missing Davante, how did we win such a good percentage of games without him in previous years? Maybe it's really MVS that we missed - seriously. A large part of the solution to the man coverage crisis might be using Watson like MVS was used - take the top off.

Criticism of Myers - not a pass blocker? It generally ain't over him that the pass rush is coming.

Rodgers' state of mind? That again? Arguably that is all stupid media shit.

You got it right about Rodgers seeming to be a little off accuracy-wise this year, though. Why? Getting old and less effective - more so mobility-wise than accuracy-wise? Maybe but I doubt it. Poor pass blocking? Yeah, but I'd say he always had that. Worse receivers? Yeah, but that's overrated too. Arguably it's a little bit of all of those. Rodgers wasn't the reason we lost to the Jets, though. He had a game that woulda been considered good for just about anybody else - just below his own usual level of excellence.

What to do? This is a little worse that just "R E L A X". The D coaching and scheming and adjusting really needs an upgrade. Part of the O Line problems may be coaching that needs to be upgraded too.

[Joemailman]

This table shows percentage of passes thrown 15+ yards down field and the completion rate on those passes.

[Freak Out]

The OL is horrid right now. Arod is getting beat down almost every time he drops back. Romeo is open all the time but Arod either misses it or makes a bad throw. The OL is killing everything. The Ron Wolf rule has been thrown out the window on fire. Stumblebums abound.