Again, we need the Love Machine

[Joemailman]

Average points scored in NFL has been 21.9 in 2022. Offense has been better than that 5 times, worse 7 times.

Defense has been better than that 3 times, worse than that 9 times.

Packers are 21st in points scored, 27th in points allowed.

Defense has been hit by injuries late, but offense was hit by injuries early at OL and WR.

Neither unit has been good enough. But when you take into account free agency losses on offense, and the number of 1st round picks on defense, it sure seems like the defense has underachieved more.

[bobblehead]

Average points scored in NFL has been 21.9 in 2022. Offense has been better than that 5 times, worse 7 times.

Defense has been better than that 3 times, worse than that 9 times.

Packers are 21st in points scored, 27th in points allowed.

Defense has been hit by injuries late, but offense was hit by injuries early at OL and WR.

Neither unit has been good enough. But when you take into account free agency losses on offense, and the number of 1st round picks on defense, it sure seems like the defense has underachieved more.

No real argument here, but you have to factor in the sheer number of 3 and outs the offense had. The 3 pick game by Rodgers. The fact we coudn't sustain a drive. I've said 100x its a big picture thing. An offense that gets stuck on the sideline by a bleeding defense will have trouble finding a rhythm. A defense put right back out there time after time will get tired and start to miss tackles and make mistakes. Neither unit has been great by any means, but early on the offense was a problem. Last 2 games I'll blame the defense more.

[texaspackerbacker]

Tex, you really do ignore reality. The defense has not stunk all season. They are the only reason we have most of the wins we do. Rodgers has stunk on ice. No 2 ways about it.

Are you kidding? The defense in fact has stunk all season. We won some games early on anyway, but it still under-performed the talent. And yes, you can blame the injuries for making the situation worse as well as blaming other aspects of the team, but the solid fact is, Joe Barry is primarily to blame for the badness.

Rodgers? Yeah, he hasn't played up to his own GOAT standard, but even with the minor injuries to him and the WRs, he's been better than most QBs around the league - no 2 ways about that hahahaha.

[run pMc]

I don't the defense has stunk ALL season, but it's rarely if ever been able to have a good game at the same time the offense does.
They held Detroit -- who was averaging 30+ points a game at home -- to 15, while Rodgers threw 3 picks. The held the Bears and Bucs to 10 and 12 points respectively.
There were other games where they kept the team in the game, but overall they haven't played well this year and I would say have significantly underperformed expectations. Maybe those expectations were unrealistic, but given all the money and draft capital (and hype) spent there you would expect better.

Rodgers has cracked 246 yards in 4 games this year, not a single game has he thrown for 300+. That's not great. If you went by his performance just this year, he might crack the top 15 QBs. Barely. So yeah, technically 14th out of 35 is better than most, but that also means there are a lot playing better than him. This roster needs him to play well and elevate the rookies/lesser lights on offense.

It can be both Offense and Defense being the reason. (There's also Amari's fumble in the WAS game, where the defense held them to 3 points in a 2 point loss, but that's another story)

I don't think Rodgers is washed up. I think if he wants to come back and play next year they should absolutely want him back. I also think after the bye they should play Love to see what they have in him.
This team isn't making the playoffs and if they do they aren't winning a WC game.

[bobblehead]

Are you kidding? The defense in fact has stunk all season. We won some games early on anyway, but it still under-performed the talent. And yes, you can blame the injuries for making the situation worse as well as blaming other aspects of the team, but the solid fact is, Joe Barry is primarily to blame for the badness.

Rodgers? Yeah, he hasn't played up to his own GOAT standard, but even with the minor injuries to him and the WRs, he's been better than most QBs around the league - no 2 ways about that hahahaha.

Sorry tex. According to total QBR (which is a guide, not the bible) Rodgers is ranked 27th. He is behind Zach Wilson who might lose his job, and behind Matt Ryan who cost his coach his job. But the good news is he beats out stellar QBs like Davis Mills and Carson Wentz.

Edit: I will allow that a lot of the reason he has sucked is his thumb and having a revolving OL and
WR group. I will not allow that he hasn't sucked though.

edit 2: Joe Flacco has still had multiple 300 yard passing games since Rodgers last had one. Stellar indeed.

[Joemailman]

One reason that Packers might want to continue playing Rodgers even if eliminated: What if Love were to start games and really light things up? Rodgers is 27th in QBR, 13th in passer rating, 21st in completion percentage. There is a possibility Love could put up numbers better than that. Packers could have a legitimate quarterback controversy. But they can't just move on from Rodgers like they did from Favre because of Rodgers' contract.

[bobblehead]

One reason that Packers might want to continue playing Rodgers even if eliminated: What if Love were to start games and really light things up? Rodgers is 27th in QBR, 13th in passer rating, 21st in completion percentage. There is a possibility Love could put up numbers better than that. Packers could have a legitimate quarterback controversy. But they can't just move on from Rodgers like they did from Favre because of Rodgers' contract.

Certainly they can. As a matter of fact at some point they will have to. Even if he played it out as written they get tagged hard. The only choice in moving on from Rodgers is when and how they get hit. But get hit they will.

If they trade/cut him at the right time they can simply add void years right beforehand to smooth out the hit. They over paid him to make him happy when he had the leverage. If Love is incredible don't think they won't move on one way or another just becuase it accelerates when they take the hit.

And to tex and APB this doesn't mean you can ALWAYS cook the cap. The hit will still be felt. The mets probably thought they were smart when they manipulated the numbers with Bobby Bonilla too. But eventually you have to pay.

[run pMc]

I think that's absolutely in Rodgers' calculations about playing or not. Also think he wanted to play the Bears because they suck and it would likely help pad his stats and for the legacy of it. No way is he going to let Jordan Love play for the all time lead in wins...plus he owns the Bears and will do everything he can to prove it.

I think he plays against the Rams because his thumb/ribs will be better and they also suck.
After that he'll go to Miami and the defense will get torched, by which time there are just two division games left and they're out of the playoff picture. I expect SEA/NYG/WAS to have enough wins in 3 weeks to push GB out of contention. At that point Love probably gets a look. 2 games is probably just enough to give Love some game snaps but not quite enough to make him look like the heir apparent and push Rodgers out the door.

This offseason will be very interesting... I think Rodgers will come back for the money if nothing else. Gute and MLF says they want him back, but of course they're going to say that.
They will be facing some decisions re: the rest of the roster, but I think Barry has to go. That alone might give the defense a bump.

I think with another solid draft and at least an average level DC they could bounce back. They should have an easier schedule and some of their young players could make a jump. This year they had a lot of bad bounces and there should be some regression to the mean also... that might already be happening over the last 4 games tbh.

At the risk of being Captain Obvious, next season comes down to managing the cap, drafting well, and replacing Barry with a better DC.
They have some good pieces under contract they can win with.
If next season turns into a tirefire then you start selling off some of your older but still good players like the Bears did with Roquan and Quinn to eat the dead money and gain future draft picks and cap space. They are probably going to have a really really bad year in the near future, but that will let them reset and then bounce back. (By then your old-but-good players won't be good -- they'll just be old.)

[NewsBruin]

If they trade/cut him at the right time they can simply add void years right beforehand to smooth out the hit. They over paid him to make him happy when he had the leverage. If Love is incredible don't think they won't move on one way or another just becuase it accelerates when they take the hit.

I don't think this is right. As I understand it, "void years" are to prorate a signing bonus against the cap through the length of the contract while the player is under contract (up to five years). A three-year contract means 33% of the signing bonus is counted each year, 25% for a 4-year contract, or 20% for the first five years.

But as soon as the player is cut or traded, the rest of the signing bonus immediately counts against the cap (or you can split it halfsies if you do it over the summer). Brees and Rodgers both had years added to cut down the annual signing bonus amount, but --unless I misunderstand-- their team can't keep that signing bonus split up for multiple years after the player is gone, no matter how many years were on fhat contract.

The Ringer had this article, which I think tries too hard to be funny, but has all the points right.

[call_me_ishmael]

I truly, 100%, believe this team is much better than they represented themselves this year and if they run it back I expect them to be in the NFCC chase next year. Thus, ARod returns.

Run it back with Amos, punt on the other shitty safety, draft a WR, OT, TE, and S and you got a stew going.

[bobblehead]

I don't think this is right. As I understand it, "void years" are to prorate a signing bonus against the cap through the length of the contract while the player is under contract (up to five years). A three-year contract means 33% of the signing bonus is counted each year, 25% for a 4-year contract, or 20% for the first five years.

But as soon as the player is cut or traded, the rest of the signing bonus immediately counts against the cap (or you can split it halfsies if you do it over the summer). Brees and Rodgers both had years added to cut down the annual signing bonus amount, but --unless I misunderstand-- their team can't keep that signing bonus split up for multiple years after the player is gone, no matter how many years were on fhat contract.

The Ringer had this article, which I think tries too hard to be funny, but has all the points right.

But the team has 50+ contracts to play with, not just Rodgers
Money is fungible. You simply convert your 5 highest contracts (that will play this year) to bonus and add void years. Voila you are borrowing against future caps, but you can cut arod. It does however handicap future caps.

[texaspackerbacker]

bobblehead, have you suddenly seen the light about the salary cap? Or is this just more of your stupid sarcasm?

Good Post, CMI. The Packers coulda/woulda/shoulda been way better this year, and whatever they are going forward, they will be way better with Rodgers than with Love.

About the needs you cited, yeah, pretty much, but not necessarily in that order. I think the O Line is pretty solid right now - Tom looked better to me than I ever remember Bakhtiari looking, although it was only the Bears they were playing. Jenkins is back where he should be, Guard. Yes, even with Watson and Doubs and Toure and probably keeping Lazard, we could use a WR, but probably late in the draft. TE probably. I thought Tonyan would be like he was before the injury, but it kinda depends on whether they think he still will be or if they see him as damaged goods. Safety, for sure, probably even first round. You left out OLB/Outside Pass Rusher. You also left out Kicker. I'd like to see them go as high as 5th or even 4th round to get a really good one.

[bobblehead]

bobblehead, have you suddenly seen the light about the salary cap? Or is this just more of your stupid sarcasm?
.

No tex, I haven't "seen the light". And I am not being sarcastic. I have always said you can kick the can down the road. You also have to pay for that down the road. Its a trick you can use for a few years while competitive to keep the band together. Once used you are simply kicking it down the road to pay for past kicking and you gain zero advantage in doing so. Why do I feel like I'm repeating very clear and exacting explanations that you seem not to understand.

[run pMc]

No tex, I haven't "seen the light". And I am not being sarcastic. I have always said you can kick the can down the road. You also have to pay for that down the road. Its a trick you can use for a few years while competitive to keep the band together. Once used you are simply kicking it down the road to pay for past kicking and you gain zero advantage in doing so. Why do I feel like I'm repeating very clear and exacting explanations that you seem not to understand.

This is true.
There's also the part where you can only kick the can on any given contract so much. They've converted a good number of salaries to bonuses in years past so they only have a few left where they can do that. Stretch your cap however you want, there is a limit to that flexibility however.

At some point they won't have Rodgers but they will have a very large amount of dead cap, along with a FBS level roster because they'll barely have enough usable cap space to field a team.

[texaspackerbacker]

No tex, I haven't "seen the light". And I am not being sarcastic. I have always said you can kick the can down the road. You also have to pay for that down the road. Its a trick you can use for a few years while competitive to keep the band together. Once used you are simply kicking it down the road to pay for past kicking and you gain zero advantage in doing so. Why do I feel like I'm repeating very clear and exacting explanations that you seem not to understand.

Interesting/ You acknowledge that kicking the can down the road can go on indefinitely, but you say at some point, the team will have to pay, and it will bite them in the ass.

At what point, would you expect that to happen? What would trigger the disaster you foresee? I could maybe see something like that if they decreased the cap or maybe even just kept it static, but that IMO is extremely unlikely. And even then, a LOT of teams would suffer - all but the very very few who aren't living on the edge cap-wise. Just in the normal progression of things, I'd say it can go on forever. Why/How do you think otherwise?

runPmc, There only would be all that dead money if Rodgers was cut or traded before the end of the contract. As I have said, doing that would be bonehead stupid regardless of cap considerations and more so with that.