Official Free Agency/Offseason Thread

[run pMc]

You're partly right, APB. The dead money has been paid already, and thus accounted for cash flow-wise. It still counts against the cap, in future years generally speaking. If they restructure a $10M salary down to $2M and pay the rest in a bonus, that 'cooks' the cap by spreading that $8 across the remainder of the contract. Let's say it's over two years in this example Cash flow-wise, it's paid out, and the amount against the current year is $6M (2 + 8/2) instead of 10, but the remaining 4 is added to whatever is owed next year. It doesn't vanish, it accumulates into a future year.

You can cook a cap by adding void years, redoing all your significant 2nd contracts so the salaries are small, etc. but sooner or later you run out of cap space or redoable contracts or both. If you overcook your cap you can end up with a lot of that cooked money hitting your cap all at once and putting you in cap hell.

The Panthers aren't in cap hell despite eating a lot of money for DJ Moore, McCaffrey and Anderson because they have very few players left with big contracts -- Brian Burns and Shaq Thompson lead the way at 16M and 14M. They could probably do something with Burn's contract, I believe it's the 5th year. Next year they have a ton of cap space. GB has several contracts where they are paying out 20M. GB right now looks like they have quite a bit of space, but they need $9 million more to trade AR, plus some for draft picks etc.

Cap can be cooked, but not indefinitely. There are limits, and not just the cap itself. You have to have workable contracts to cook. Some of GBs contracts aren't easy to get out of, not just AR's. Has Russ Ball lost a step? They've done a lot of cooking already.

[RashanGary]

The Packers could probably make about 30 or 40 more million if they max voided everyone possible. But then they’re out of ways to cook the cap.

[Fritz]

Preston could be gone after the season, but the way they redid his contract doesn't save them much if they do... I think like 2.5M in 2024.

How would you handle Bahktiari's contract? It expires after the 2024 season and they just redid it. His cap number balloons next year and they save a lot of money by releasing him. Are you saying they extend him? if they wanted to do void years they would likely already have done that when they redid it this year. I'm curious what you view as "handled right" means.

I agree you don't want to get rid of quality players if you don't have to, but age and contracts along with cap space might demand it. I love Aaron Jones but giving a 5-9 30 year old RB 17M in 2024 is not smart. Maybe they can do something to keep him but you're likely extending him and asking him to take a paycut or something. Again, RBs have short careers and can be replaced without too much trouble, so paying a lot for one is iffy.

I wouldn't give up on this season or those beyond it, especially if the Super Bowl isn't your thing. I don't expect them to win the SB, and I'd be surprised if they win 10+ games, but they should be more interesting and possibly more fun than last year. We at least get to see what the MLF offense will look like, and we can see if/how JL, Watson, Doubs, and other young players develop. Free agency -- once they unwind their cap mess -- as well as NFL's push for parity will likely get GB back into playoffs sooner than you might think. I remember the bad old days of the 80's, they aren't going back to that. The league and the GB FO are too smart for that now.

The above is where I'm sitting, mentally, these days. It's not that I "hate" Rodgers - sure I whine about his personality sometimes, but he doesn't abuse women or children or kill people, so in my eyes he's a better person than many NFL players. I just got tired of the drama the past couple of years. Will he or won't he? How much say will he have over personnel? Are his emotional needs being met by the front office? And while he played at a high level prior to last year, some of that, at least, was the brilliance of Davante Adams. But still, Rodgers is the best QB I've ever seen play in Green Bay, going back to Bart Starr. I'm just ready for the next chapter - see if and how the young guy develops, see what MLF's offense "really" looks like, see how the front office, completely untethered from Rodgers's "requests," drafts this year and who they sign or don't sign. Just time to turn the page, for me. I know Tex doesn't feel that way, and that's fine. Rodgers has brought a bunch of success to GB, at least up until the playoffs, and since Tex doesn't care much about the playoffs, then that's not a big deal for him.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

You're partly right, APB. The dead money has been paid already, and thus accounted for cash flow-wise. It still counts against the cap, in future years generally speaking. If they restructure a $10M salary down to $2M and pay the rest in a bonus, that 'cooks' the cap by spreading that $8 across the remainder of the contract. Let's say it's over two years in this example Cash flow-wise, it's paid out, and the amount against the current year is $6M (2 + 8/2) instead of 10, but the remaining 4 is added to whatever is owed next year. It doesn't vanish, it accumulates into a future year.

You can cook a cap by adding void years, redoing all your significant 2nd contracts so the salaries are small, etc. but sooner or later you run out of cap space or redoable contracts or both. If you overcook your cap you can end up with a lot of that cooked money hitting your cap all at once and putting you in cap hell.

The Panthers aren't in cap hell despite eating a lot of money for DJ Moore, McCaffrey and Anderson because they have very few players left with big contracts -- Brian Burns and Shaq Thompson lead the way at 16M and 14M. They could probably do something with Burn's contract, I believe it's the 5th year. Next year they have a ton of cap space. GB has several contracts where they are paying out 20M. GB right now looks like they have quite a bit of space, but they need $9 million more to trade AR, plus some for draft picks etc.

Cap can be cooked, but not indefinitely. There are limits, and not just the cap itself. You have to have workable contracts to cook. Some of GBs contracts aren't easy to get out of, not just AR's. Has Russ Ball lost a step? They've done a lot of cooking already.

Who gives a fuck about being hit with a dead money of $20M when you gain an extra $3M in cap space? Who gives a fuck about having $50M in dead money when you have $60M in cap space?

Only a bunch of fat white pigs and that fat desert camel in Jacksonville give a fuck. Dead money is nothing but an accounting tool the owners utilize to keep labor expenses down. Like, yo, let’s cut Cletidus Clark cos Nutz could do what Clark does (3 sacks a season, inability to dominate the trenches and a penchant for disappearing for long stretches in the season) for far less frogskins; Cletidus’ dead cap of $20M gives us pigs an excuse not to spend frogskins on hotshot players til the goddamn CBA forces us to!

Absence of Butte, which vet currently on the Packers roster is worthy of a big contract? Only J-Alex. Perhaps Gary Lightbody, too, if he can continue to ascend post injury. The dead money of Amos, Tonyan, Crosby, Lowry, and even Butte, among others, ain’t gonna mean shit in 3 years when the Packers will be something like $100M under the cap - which will force them to go on a spending spree, per the CBA.

[texaspackerbacker]

Where to start, so much to comment on hahahahaha.

APB, as always, great job analyzing the cap; Lousy job analyzing Clark. That chart somebody posted a while back about the cap and dead money and where all the teams stand really said it all. Pushing things to the limit is really the way to go if you want to win - that plus getting lucky is the formula. Yeah, dead money is already paid; Yeah also, it counts against the cap; The thing is, it gets spead out.

That spreading out, runpMc, is the answer to "what I'd do about Bakhtiari's contract". First of all, I'm not the one to ask, because I have way lower regard for that sacred cow than just about anybody. But assuming (dubiously) that he is worth keeping, you just do what has been done with so many other good players, extend extend extend, and don't worry about the fact the cap hits continue after the guy is gone. Similarly, Aaron Jones shouldn't have a cap hit of $17 million, but he absolutely shouldn't be gone. In other words, he more than any others mentioned should be extended and the cap hit spread out. The Panthers were stupid to get rid of the players they got rid of, but that's somebody else's problem.

As for a "bright future" with Love, Watson, Doubs, etc., Watson is gonna be absolutely great if he stays healthy, but he will probably go to waste to a great extent with Love rather than Rodgers at QB. Doubs is like a lot of other WRs around the league, ok, maybe even good, but not great. If the Packers are gonna be anything other than solidly below average with Love as QB, Aaron Jones is one key, and the D stepping up - as is highly unlikely with Joe Barry - is the other key. That, a healthy Watson, and special teams not blowing it, and you get up to maybe 9 or 10 wins. I would think 5-8 wins is a lot more likely. That's what's on that page ya'all want to turn to. Be careful what you wish for.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Tex, what do you call someone who produces 3 sacks season, is a milksop in the trench, especially vs the run, and does more disappearing acts than a teenager flipping burgers - all while getting paid $18M/yr?

A: An overrated, overpaid, underachiever.

[texaspackerbacker]

I call him a top five, maybe top 2 or 3 interior D Lineman in the league who gets way too much blocking attention due to lesser players around him (maybe Wyatt will help that situation) and a scheme where a lot of what he's supposed to do is occupy blockers while the LBs zoom in or out to make the tackles and get the sacks.

[run pMc]

I tend to lean closer to Tex's assessment of Kenny Clark. He's a bit overpaid and didn't have a great year, but he has had very little help on the DL and is frequently doubled teamed.

per https://www.packersnews.com/

For the season, he was double-teamed on 190 of his 809 defensive snaps or 23.5% of the time. He was doubled on 120 pass plays and 70 run plays.
By comparison, Gary was double-teamed on 15.4% of his 376 snaps. Surprisingly, he was doubled on just 10.5% of pass plays.

Who gives a fuck about being hit with a dead money of $20M when you gain an extra $3M in cap space?

Depends on the player and how tight against the cap you are.
When you cook the cap, the money does not just evaporate away, you still have to account for it in a future cap year. The cap is not unlimited. Each restructure is essentially a new loan, borrowed against future cap space.

If you think Jaire is the only player worthy of a big contract, you'd be letting a number of very good players go. I'm not sure I'd go that far.
As for Bahktiari's contract, they just redid it for this year, pushing money out until next year - his final year. That they didn't add any void years is telling. It likely means he either doesn't want to do any favors for GB, or he wants to keep open the possibility of an extension. Void years can get in the way of that.

[Joemailman]

OBJ going to Ravens.

[Fritz]

OBJ going to Ravens.

Plays three games, makes an impact. Packer fans bitch that Guter didn't sign him. Gets hurt in fourth game - just an "aggravating" injury. Misses two games. Comes back. Plays in two more. Gets hurt again. etc, etc.

[Teamcheez1]

OBJ going to Ravens.

The shocker is they’re paying him $15M guaranteed. This to a guy who has barely played the last 3 years with 2 ACL injuries and the wrong side of 30.

[run pMc]

Ravens WR group has not been very good, especially after they traded Hollywood Brown. He's the de facto #1 and he has guaranteed money. Not a bad setup for him.
I also wonder if he knows something about the Lamar situation. I can't believe he's so concerned with only the money that he'd play for a team without a top 10 QB. Tyler Huntley isn't bad, but IIRC he's on a one year RFA deal and he's no Lamar.

Weird signing. He wasn't a fit for GB, schematically or cap-wise anyway.

[Fritz]

Ravens WR group has not been very good, especially after they traded Hollywood Brown. He's the de facto #1 and he has guaranteed money. Not a bad setup for him.
I also wonder if he knows something about the Lamar situation. I can't believe he's so concerned with only the money that he'd play for a team without a top 10 QB. Tyler Huntley isn't bad, but IIRC he's on a one year RFA deal and he's no Lamar.

Weird signing. He wasn't a fit for GB, schematically or cap-wise anyway.

I don't know if anyone else in the league would've even come close to matching that number, given what his injury history/age is. So at that rate, I kinda doubt OBJ would care if Brett Hundey's mom was throwing the football for the Ravens.

Weirdly overpaid for what they're going to get.

[run pMc]

Lions trade Jeff Okudah to ATL for a R5 pick.
Okudah was the #3 overall pick a few years back. He's had injury problems and has been inconsistent but with good coaching and support around him is young enough where he could still be decent.

Prevailing theory is DET will take a CB with one of their R1 picks.

[Fritz]

Lions trade Jeff Okudah to ATL for a R5 pick.
Okudah was the #3 overall pick a few years back. He's had injury problems and has been inconsistent but with good coaching and support around him is young enough where he could still be decent.

Prevailing theory is DET will take a CB with one of their R1 picks.

Lions really pooped the bed on that one.

But that was the previous GM, who came from the scraggly Belichik coaching bush.