Official 2024 NFL Draft Thread

[run pMc]

Dov Kleiman
@NFL_DovKleiman

Wow: The belief amongst executives in the NFL who know #Commanders GM Adam Peters is that he will draft J.J. McCarthy at #2 overall.


If true, this would open things up for the Vikings to trade up to 5 and take Daniels or Maye.

I find it hard to believe much Dov says is true, until it's confirmed elsewhere. Also, this smells to me like prime pre-draft cow manure packaged up and whispered along as rumor to media.
There's no way you take McCarthy over Maye unless your personnel department has been heavily drinking for 72 hours. Maye is a better prospect by a not-small margin.

Also, if WFT takes McCarthy and MIN somehow trades up to draft Maye, look out. I have some faith that CHI will screw up Caleb, but a half competent team could develop Maye into a franchise QB. I think McCarthy is ok but I also think he could easily get overdrafted.
Presumably if WFT take McCarthy then Eliot Wolf will sprint the Maye card up to the podium for NE. All the same, I don't believe any rumors right now... everyone is lying why they open their mouths.

[run pMc]

I've done some interactive mocks lately where DeJean is available at 25, Barton at 41, and Edgerrin Cooper at 58. Don't know if that's realistic, but I'd be pretty happy.

Same. I think Barton is a good player who had the athleticism and versatility GB likes. DeJean is good, but is he a CB or a S? He's never played S so you probably have to give him a redshirt year to learn that, I'm not sure Gute does that. Maybe Hafley is a teaching savant and DeJean is a quick study.

[red]

Dov Kleiman
@NFL_DovKleiman

Wow: The belief amongst executives in the NFL who know #Commanders GM Adam Peters is that he will draft J.J. McCarthy at #2 overall.


If true, this would open things up for the Vikings to trade up to 5 and take Daniels or Maye.

i thought JJ WAS the vikings target and the guy they fell in love with?

[red]

DeJean is good, but is he a CB or a S?

well, i believe the new scheme needs a safety that can play slot corner a lot of the time

so this is a perfect problem for him to have

and he has starting experience at both CB and as a lb/safety hybrid (exactly what we need) . so is he a cb or s? he's both, and excelled at both

[run pMc]

well, i believe the new scheme needs a safety that can play slot corner a lot of the time

So you don't think they'll play Jaire and Stokes outside and Nixon and Valentine inside when they need 4 corners? I agree with if you if they want to play a hybrid guy. I suppose it depends on injuries and the situation (down & distance).

They just paid Nixon $6M to play slot, but if a team goes 4 or 5 wide I see what you mean. Everything I've heard of DeJean at safety is that it's a projection though, hence my skepticism. I'm not sure they take a CB before late R3 based on all the bodies they have, but a trade could change that.

[smuggler]

Can't really trust the grapevine stuff at 2 overall. It's a great time for a smokescreen or two.

[Fritz]

Agree, Smuggs. Does anyone really think that JJ McCarthy is truly the second-best player in this draft? Even at the QB position?

[red]

Agree, Smuggs. Does anyone really think that JJ McCarthy is truly the second-best player in this draft? Even at the QB position?

nope, but i don't think any of the QBs are really the best players in the draft

if this was 20 years ago, you probably wouldn't see any of these QBs goin gin the first round

teams just don't learn, thats why the bad ones keep staying bad. they keep overdrafting the hell out of these QB that have no place in the first round

[red]

first round QB's. good or shit?

2023 (too soon really, but whatever)

young #1- shit
stroud-#2- good
richardson #4- incomplete, too broken

2022
picket #20- shit, already traded

2021 (perfect example of over drafting QBs)
lawrence #1- not shit
zach wilson #2- LOLOLOLOL
trey lance #3- somehow worse then fucking wilson
fields #11- as shitty as his team was, traded
mac jones #15- shit, already traded


2020 (the one good year)

burrow #1- good
tua #5- not bad
herbert #6- just fine
love #26 -

[red]

2019

Kyler murray #1- coach killer? pretty blah
daniel jones #6- horrid
dwayne haskins #15- really bad then hit by dump truck while walking on highway

2018

mayfield #1 - ok-ish? pretty average starting QB for the first overall pick, but still a starter
sam darnold #3- the last "can't miss superstar" QB from USC. shit
josh allen #7- HIT, A FUCKING HIT!!!!!!!
josh rosen #10- complete shitshow
lamar jackson #32- 2 time MVP with the last pick in the 1st

2017

mitchy turbo #2- another shit player on a shitty team
mahomes #10- he's ok
watson #12- was good, now bad. he's gotta pay for it.

2016
goff #1- just ok, nothing special, but not horrible. his first team didn't want him
carson wentz #2- eh, not great, not completely shit. not very good for the #2 overall

2015
winston #1- nope, that didnt work
Marcus Mariota #2- this one didn't either

2014

bortles #3- not even close
johnny football #22- wow, just no
bridgewater #32- might have been not shit if it wasn't for the injury. incomplete

[red]

thats 16 shit players

8 i would say are good (4 came in 2020)

6 that were - eh

2 that were injured

and somehow my counts off, you assholes figure it out

[KYPack]

Great post Red. I've been thinking about this factor and how it affects QB's. The old rule of thumb is that about 40% of #1 picks become good starters. This factor is even worse when it comes to QB's. 70% of no 1 QB's aren't worth the powder to blow them to hell.

It's even a greater risk when you consider all the value of those high picks. Those high busts are a double whammy. You get nothing for the selection and your team is divided and in a worse boat than before the draft. Hell, the Jones pick cost one of the all time great coaches to lose his job! (Not that there's anything wrong with that!)

You had a vintage year (2020) followed by a death year (2021)

No rhyme or reason there.

[MadScientist]

You had a vintage year (2020) followed by a death year (2021)

No rhyme or reason there.

There is rhyme and reason for 2021 being a bad year. Given how a lot of players stayed an extra year, and scouting was limited in the previous year, it was a terribledraft all around. I don't know if any of the 2020 hits came out earlier because of the pandemic, but 4 good QB's in the first round is a lucky draft regardless.

[KYPack]

There is rhyme and reason for 2021 being a bad year. Given how a lot of players stayed an extra year, and scouting was limited in the previous year, it was a terribledraft all around. I don't know if any of the 2020 hits came out earlier because of the pandemic, but 4 good QB's in the first round is a lucky draft regardless.

Yer right. That is a reason, Mad. Now what's the rhyme?

[run pMc]

QBs get overdrafted because of their importance in the game and potential value if you hit on one.

Draft success in the aggregate is basically a coin flip, having more/higher picks increases your odds slightly.

I'd also say that the team a player lands on matters a lot.
- If they have a garbage organization and coaching staff, they aren't going to develop. (Justin Fields)
- If they get shoved on the field as a Day 1 starter before they are ready with a leaky OL, they are going to fail. (Zach Wilson)
- If you trade away your best WR, they will struggle. (Bryce Young)

Granted, those QB examples were unlikely to beat the odds because of other shortcomings, but the situation they entered certainly did them no favors.

Jordan Love had time to develop with a patient organization, had a halfway decent OL, and while the receivers were a wildcard, by end of year they had gelled. The big assumption was he'd have a good running game with Jones/Dillon and the defense would hold up, but by midseason things started to trend up.

FWIW I think not having a single, psycho owner helps GB a lot -- the fans and the owner often want the shiny new QB to play right away when they are still learning the playbook. Meanwhile the coach and GM are trying to keep their job. There have been a lot of good QB prospects ruined by being drafted into bad environments.