Official 2024 NFL Draft Thread

[KYPack]

Yeah, Jalen Carter was involved in a car crash - basically he was drag racing with other UGA staff and plauers and the other car crashed and people died. He fled the scene but came back later.

I like T.Sweat's tape but he's not going to be a 3 down player and he's also not a great fit in Hafley's 4-3. That plus this latest dumbfuckery will drop him down boards, and word of him liking to party (He was arrested at 2pm in the afternoon on a Sunday) is a major red flag. Yeah, he's young and immature, but what happens when he gets a bag of money and is expected to be a pro? GB has a pretty full DL room now, but I could see them sneaky pick one late. Kenny Clark's contract is up and they might go younger there, but I'd rather keep Clark.
The Boyd kid from NIU was brought in for a top 30 visit, look for him to be a Day 3 prospect for GB.

If Sweat was there in R4 or 5 I'd think about it, but he'll be gone by then. When he's motivated and keeps his pad level low he is an absolute load and IOL will get bowled into the QB's lap. I saw it sometimes, but not enough. Kind of a shame, was enjoying the image of Garrett Bradbury trying to handle him and failing miserably.

He blew in the little machine at 330 AM. Ya know,. the cocktail hour. Maybe they booked him at 2pm, but the action took place in the early morning hours. The guy was faced.

[Fritz]

Put another "Harry the Hitman" into the defensive backfield with Xavier McKinney, and I think we'd see a very different defense than we've seen in Green Bay in a hell of a long time.

Harry the Hitman?

How about Harry "Son of Chuck" Cecil?

[bobblehead]

My hot take - RAS focused too much on weight. That guy seems like a good agile athlete, but not particularly fast. How are they scoring off the charts in RAS?

So your hot take is size doesn't matter?? Ok, I know you are saying it focuses too much on weight not that it doesn't matter. Personally I think it should focus on body composition. A big fat guy can't gain quality size at all. He can gain athleticism while maintaining size possibly, but he can't gain size for sure. A lean fit guy can gain size without sacrificing athleticism. Its definitely a balance and perhaps RAS does focus on weight too much. RAS is after all like any model...you get out of it what you set the parameters for the input.

[run pMc]

In 2016, Platte said that Size (height and weight) made up 20% of the score. Bench is another 10% of score.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2016/5/16/11678686/relative-athletic-scores-what-they-are-and-why-they-work

I think it's fair to look at size outliers and be wary.
Even with his size, bench and explosion numbers IDK how AJ Dillon was a 9.15 RAS. His 10 yard and agility numbers were not great. It's certainly possible there's some adjustments being made for size to those (41" vert is impressive no matter what, but especially at his weight) and it does feel a little distorted.

GB doesn't use RAS, but they have some similar measurement they use - I suspect it is tailored by position and puts higher importance on agility and explosion measurements.

All of that aside, I'll be captain obvious and say you have to go off film. Game tape and GPS tracking data from games (and practice) can reveal a lot about a player. Training for weeks to master combine drills can mask things tape can't. Tape tells you if you're a good player, drills tell if you're a good athlete. I also like the adage that you don't double-count combine drill performance in your grading - it should be evident on tape already. If it's not, go back and rewatch, and question why there's a difference.

[SudsMcBucky]

So your hot take is size doesn't matter??

Interesting......my wife has the exact same hot take.

[Fritz]

In 2016, Platte said that Size (height and weight) made up 20% of the score. Bench is another 10% of score.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2016/5/16/11678686/relative-athletic-scores-what-they-are-and-why-they-work

I think it's fair to look at size outliers and be wary.
Even with his size, bench and explosion numbers IDK how AJ Dillon was a 9.15 RAS. His 10 yard and agility numbers were not great. It's certainly possible there's some adjustments being made for size to those (41" vert is impressive no matter what, but especially at his weight) and it does feel a little distorted.

GB doesn't use RAS, but they have some similar measurement they use - I suspect it is tailored by position and puts higher importance on agility and explosion measurements.

All of that aside, I'll be captain obvious and say you have to go off film. Game tape and GPS tracking data from games (and practice) can reveal a lot about a player. Training for weeks to master combine drills can mask things tape can't. Tape tells you if you're a good player, drills tell if you're a good athlete. I also like the adage that you don't double-count combine drill performance in your grading - it should be evident on tape already. If it's not, go back and rewatch, and question why there's a difference.

My wife also put great emphasis on agility and explosion.

That's why she chose me.

[bobblehead]

In 2016, Platte said that Size (height and weight) made up 20% of the score. Bench is another 10% of score.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2016/5/16/11678686/relative-athletic-scores-what-they-are-and-why-they-work

I think it's fair to look at size outliers and be wary.
Even with his size, bench and explosion numbers IDK how AJ Dillon was a 9.15 RAS. His 10 yard and agility numbers were not great. It's certainly possible there's some adjustments being made for size to those (41" vert is impressive no matter what, but especially at his weight) and it does feel a little distorted.

GB doesn't use RAS, but they have some similar measurement they use - I suspect it is tailored by position and puts higher importance on agility and explosion measurements.

All of that aside, I'll be captain obvious and say you have to go off film. Game tape and GPS tracking data from games (and practice) can reveal a lot about a player. Training for weeks to master combine drills can mask things tape can't. Tape tells you if you're a good player, drills tell if you're a good athlete. I also like the adage that you don't double-count combine drill performance in your grading - it should be evident on tape already. If it's not, go back and rewatch, and question why there's a difference.

Different scores matter more for different positions. 3 cone is important for WR but not so much for a LB. 10 yard means a lot more for a RB than the raw 40.

[bobblehead]

My wife also put great emphasis on agility and explosion.

That's why she chose me.

My wife said its all about the girth. I put on 40 pounds and she had to tell me that wasn't what she meant. I feel shame.

[bobblehead]

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2024/04/12/packers-believe-zach-tom-has-hall-of-fame-potential-at-center/

"I was told by a couple of people within the organization, they think Zach Tom is a Pro Bowl right tackle, an All-Pro guard and a potential Hall of Fame center,” Demovsky said.

Sounds like me. I'm the insider. Now draft the tackle at 25.

[smuggler]

Tom at RT is also currently the best lineman on the team, so we'd need a pretty damn compelling reason to move him.

[Patler]

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/202...ial-at-center/

"I was told by a couple of people within the organization, they think Zach Tom is a Pro Bowl right tackle, an All-Pro guard and a potential Hall of Fame center,” Demovsky said.

Sounds like me. I'm the insider. Now draft the tackle at 25.

Didn't they say the same thing about Elgton Jenkins three years ago? He had played LT, LG, C and RT. Could be Pro-Bowl caliber anywhere, including LT, possibly All-Pro inside; but his best position would be Center.

I doubt they will weaken RT to improve at center. Tom's "HoF" career at center probably depends on the Packers drafting at least a Tauscher-level right tackle.

[Frozen Tundra]

Didn't they say the same thing about Elgton Jenkins three years ago? He had played LT, LG, C and RT. Could be Pro-Bowl caliber anywhere, including LT, possibly All-Pro inside; but his best position would be Center.

I doubt they will weaken RT to improve at center. Tom's "HoF" career at center probably depends on the Packers drafting at least a Tauscher-level right tackle.

It would take one hell of a player to replace Tom in his rookie year, so if they do plan to slide him inside, they're probably thinking 2025. Chances of replacing Tom this year at #25 are pretty remote. Every year he stays at RT, the better he's likely to get at it, and by 2025 he may be too good at tackle to risk replacing with a rookie or rotational player.

And by 2025, there may be other players on the roster who are ready to replace Myers. Tom wouldn't be the first offensive lineman to have a terrific career playing a position of need, even though he was more naturally suited for a diffferent spot on the line.

If I had to guess, I'd say that if they stand pat at #25, there's better than a 50-50 chance they'll go O-line. The value at offensive line in general (and especially tackle) is just too high this year, because the position is so heavily over-represented in this draft.

In 2020, the first round saw 5 tackles and 6 OL total. In 21, 4 tackles and 5 offensive linemen overall. 2022 - 5 OT out of 8 linemen total. In 2023, 5 offensive linemen, all tackles.

Last 5 years, anywhere from 5-8 offensive lineman going in Round 1 - 4 or 5 drafted as tackles each year.

This year, most projections see anywhere from 7-8 to as many as 10 offensive linemen likely going 1st round, almost all of them tackles (or at least, drafted as tackles).

It's really rare that any position group has such an abundance of talent clustered in the first couple dozen picks of the draft, and for a team that is drafting in the bottom of the round (and expecting to keep drafting in the bottom 15% or so for years to come), it's a rare opportunity to get a player at a crucial position who would probably go in the top half of the draft most seasons. At #25, we could quite possibly get a player who would have been gone by #12 or 15 in almost any other draft.

This is a luxury that most teams can not afford - the ability to prioritize hunting for bargains to bolster your roster, instead of filling immediate holes.... but a well-balanced team can. And the last couple of Gutenkunst's drafts have put us in a position where we can afford to manage our drafts that way.

[bobblehead]

Didn't they say the same thing about Elgton Jenkins three years ago? He had played LT, LG, C and RT. Could be Pro-Bowl caliber anywhere, including LT, possibly All-Pro inside; but his best position would be Center.

I doubt they will weaken RT to improve at center. Tom's "HoF" career at center probably depends on the Packers drafting at least a Tauscher-level right tackle.

They said similar things about Jenkins in so far as he could play anywhere, but Jenkins is much larger than Tom and I don't think he is "better" inside than out. He is good all the way across. Tom is built and moves more like a guard/center than a tackle. Jenkins did play LT successfully before his injury, and then wasn't quite up to playing RT so soon after it. Personally I think Tom is a really good tackle, but as I've said, he could be a top 3 guard in the entire league and he isn't even close to that as a tackle.

[Fritz]

I listened to a speculative podcast the other day about the Packers trading up. If they did, the after was of the opinion that the most likely position in which to do so was corner, and he focused on Arnold and Mitchell. Imagines one might still be there at 16.

[Joemailman]

Peter Bukowski
@Peter_Bukowski

In today’s
@TheLeapGB
we put together a roadmap for the Packers draft. Who are their types? Where are they projected? What does history tell us about where certain positions are best drafted? A clear path emerges.

https://www.theleap.football/p/putti...ft-roadmap-for