The "Help" for Rodgers in '08 and Love in '23

[Patler]

Many have mentioned it in passing, but no one has really looked at it in detail. So here is a breakdown of the prior experience in the receiver and tight end groups for Rodgers in '08 and Love this year:

Rodgers '08/Love '23

Games played: 316/73
Games started: 189/29
Targets: 1,385/193
Receptions: 817/127
Receiving yds: 11,116/1,489
Touchdowns: 70/13

Players included:
For Rodgers: Driver, Jennings, Nelson, Jones. Martin, Lee, Humphrey, Finley, Kuhn, Hall
For Love: Reed, Doubs, Watson, Wicks, Toure, Heath, Musgrave, Kraft, Deguara, Sims

I included the fullbacks, Kuhn and Hall, for Rodgers to get to 10 players. They were used much like Deguara who is listed as a TE. Basically, the two groups of 10 includes all of the WRs, TEs and FBs who were used.

Driver was the most experienced in '08, but even if you take out his stats (129/103/851/503/6,977/38) the group still had good experience.

In '23 Deguara is the most experienced. If you ignore his numbers (35/6/50/39/371/2) it leaves just Doubs, Watson, Toure and rookies/first year players.


I didn't include the RBs because I didn't think they reflected much in the analysis. Rodgers had Grant and Brandon Jackson. Love has Jones and Dillon. Jones and Dillon are more experienced than Grant and Jackson were, but Jones has not been much of a factor this year after the Bears game, being out or playing limited snaps due to injuries. Both Grant and Jackson were very good in the passing game already, so I look at it as somewhat of a wash.

[Patler]

Might as well look at their O'lines too:

For Rodgers: Clifton, Colledge, Wells, Spitz, Tauscher
For Love: Walker, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom.


Edit:
OL cumulative totals:

Rodgers "08/Love '23

Games played: 338/148
Game starts: 312/124

[RashanGary]

Rodger finished with 4k and 28 tuds
Love on pace for 4k and 29 tuds


But love is trending up. 4,300 and 33 is probably closer than 4k and 29 the way it’s going.

[RashanGary]

Rodgers had 5 years in his career when he hit 4,290 yards and 33 or more tuds. Loves first year is somewhat comparable to an average Rodgers year, statistically, if he finishes on the trajectory he his on now.

Rodgers averaged like 6 interceptions a year so it’s not quite what it looks like. But an excellent first year for love so far.

[Fritz]

Rodger finished with 4k and 28 tuds
Love on pace for 4k and 29 tuds


But love is trending up. 4,300 and 33 is probably closer than 4k and 29 the way it’s going.

What's a "tud"? Is that a turd that a pirate stole the "r" from?

[bobblehead]

Don't forget the fact Rodgers was playing the schedule of a team coming off 13 wins and an NFCC game. Love is playing a schedule of a team that missed the playoffs.

[RashanGary]

Don't forget the fact Rodgers was playing the schedule of a team coming off 13 wins and an NFCC game. Love is playing a schedule of a team that missed the playoffs.

Yeah. And the young guys careers haven’t played out from Loves group, so it looks like a bunch of scrubs compared to packer HOFers at a glance. So it’s deceiving on a few levels.


But the guys are young. The OL is young. Love is off to a great start. I don’t think it’s better than Rodgers, but comparable.

[ThunderDan]

Also, you need to take into account on projections that ARod played 16 games and Love gets to play 17.

[Patler]

Don't forget the fact Rodgers was playing the schedule of a team coming off 13 wins and an NFCC game. Love is playing a schedule of a team that missed the playoffs.

Not very significant, in my opinion. Made a difference of only 2 opponents in 2008, three opponents now with the 17-game schedule. Otherwise, the Vikings, Lions, Bears and Packers play the same opponents.

Uncommon opponents in 2008, and the records they finished with in 2008:
2007 1st place Packers played: Cowboys (9/7), Seahawks (4/12) combined 13/19
2007 2nd place Vikings played: Cardinals (9/7), Giants (12/4) combined 21/11
2007 3rd place Lions played: 49ers (7/9), Redskins (8/8) combined 15/17
2007 4th place Bears played; Eagles (9/6/1), Rams (2/14) combined 11/20/1

Rogers was at no meaningful disadvantage to the others in 2008


Uncommon Opponents in 2023 and their records to date:
2022 1st place Vikings: Eagles (10/1), 49ers (8/3), Bengals (5-6) combined 23/10
2022 2nd place Lions: Seahawks (6/5), Ravens (9/3), Cowboys (8/3) combined 23/11
2022 3rd place Packers: Rams (5/6), Steelers (7/4), Giants (4/8) combined 16/18
2022 4th place Bears: Commanders (4/8), Browns (7/4), Cardinals (2/10) combined 13/22

While Love so far looks to have an advantage over what he would have had if he was playing the schedule of the 2022 1st or 2nd place finishers, his opponents seem comparable to Rodgers 2008 opponents, if not slightly stronger. But the season still has a long way to go, so I won't make too much of it. Except for a few outliers at each extreme. parity is the name of the game in the NFL.

[KYPack]

It is truly great to see you posting.

Keep posting and roasting em with Patlerizing facts, my man!

[Upnorth]

This us an excellent reminder there is hope. We've gone from snowballs chance in hell for a 3rd hof qb to snowballs chance in Florida in the shade approaching winter

[RashanGary]

Also, you need to take into account on projections that ARod played 16 games and Love gets to play 17.

Good point. He’s gonna need 4,250 and 31 to match Rodgers maiden voyage.

[bobblehead]

Not very significant, in my opinion. Made a difference of only 2 opponents in 2008, three opponents now with the 17-game schedule. Otherwise, the Vikings, Lions, Bears and Packers play the same opponents.

Uncommon opponents in 2008, and the records they finished with in 2008:
2007 1st place Packers played: Cowboys (9/7), Seahawks (4/12) combined 13/19
2007 2nd place Vikings played: Cardinals (9/7), Giants (12/4) combined 21/11
2007 3rd place Lions played: 49ers (7/9), Redskins (8/8) combined 15/17
2007 4th place Bears played; Eagles (9/6/1), Rams (2/14) combined 11/20/1

Rogers was at no meaningful disadvantage to the others in 2008


Uncommon Opponents in 2023 and their records to date:
2022 1st place Vikings: Eagles (10/1), 49ers (8/3), Bengals (5-6) combined 23/10
2022 2nd place Lions: Seahawks (6/5), Ravens (9/3), Cowboys (8/3) combined 23/11
2022 3rd place Packers: Rams (5/6), Steelers (7/4), Giants (4/8) combined 16/18
2022 4th place Bears: Commanders (4/8), Browns (7/4), Cardinals (2/10) combined 13/22

While Love so far looks to have an advantage over what he would have had if he was playing the schedule of the 2022 1st or 2nd place finishers, his opponents seem comparable to Rodgers 2008 opponents, if not slightly stronger. But the season still has a long way to go, so I won't make too much of it. Except for a few outliers at each extreme. parity is the name of the game in the NFL.

Parity is the name of the game, but records aside, Love has had a VERY soft schedule based on what teams are this year, and it stays somewhat soft. We also have played some shitty QBs that allowed Love to have ample chances to win games.

I'm no Rodgers apologist, and I'm not all in on Love, but my impression is that the schedule and the opponents have favored him thus far. However, the Lions are pretty good and we punked them at home in their annual "big game".

I think Rodgers had certain advantages as well though like a more reliable OL, and more available skill position players. To me, Love's biggest accomplishment was not losing confidence when he was getting the pocket crushed in on him. Continuing to throw to whoever happens to be open even if its an undrafted Heath, or a 5th round rookie.

The similarities are remarkable though, beyond the 3 years sitting and such. Both guys had coaches who were protecting them early on with "safe" throws designed to build confidence. The results were similar thus far. Just looked it up, the packers were 5-5 before dropping 5 in a row. I recall a lot of anger from a lot of fans over not bringing Favre back. I think Rodgers success has created more "wait and see" Love supporters than we would have seen otherwise.

[sharpe1027]

Drew Brees (2002) 16 games; 320-526 for 3284 yards; 17 TD; 16 INT; 76.9 passer rating
Peyton Manning (1998) 16 games; 326-575 for 3739 yards; 26 TD; 28 INT (ouch!); 71.2 passer rating.


Love caught a break with the Rodgers injury. imagine dealing with the comparison to how Rodgers did each week on top of trying to establish yourself in your first year as a starter.

[call_me_ishmael]

The league is much softer now so Love has some advantages and expectations of better numbers. I seem to recall being sold that ARod was going to be pretty good pretty early, even though I hated him taking over the way he did. The same way I felt Brett earned the right to go on his own terms I feel about ARod. I am super encouraged by the last couple weeks of JLove though so we'll see. It doesn't matter if you show the game in week 4 or week 14 as long as you grow and show.