Matching Up With the Niners

[Joemailman]

Based on EPA, Packers and 49ers basically the same since week 12.

[QBME]

Based on EPA, Packers and 49ers basically the same since week 12.

Help a fellow Rat out - what is EPA?

[Joemailman]

Help a fellow Rat out - what is EPA?

Expected Points Added (EPA) is a commonly used advanced statistic in football. In short, this stat measures how well a team performs compared to their expectation on a play-by-play basis. EPA and EPA per Play, along with other stats using EPA, can help us evaluate team and player performance.

In this table, the further to the right you are, the better your offense. The closer to the top you are, the better the defense.

[QBME]

In this table, the further to the right you are, the better your offense. The closer to the top you are, the better the defense.

So the goal is to flat line along either the x or y axis or more preferably shoot a 45 degree?

[Fritz]

I agree, the decision to take the ball may have been the game winner. Packers came right out and punched the cowboys in the mouth. Put them in a daze that wouldn’t wear off. The equivalent of walking up to a group of motherfuckers and knocking out the baddest one. The rest of the crew immediately doubts how tough they really are. I’m still kinda blown away how dominating it was.

Should they do the same thing Saturday if presented?

Nah. If the Packers win the toss, they should take the ball, then come out and punch the Niners in the nutsack.

Weirdly, Tex makes a rational point about Barry's defenses and posts what seems to me to be a thoughtful post.

I wonder if he's passed out and his wife is now posting as "Tex." Ya never know.

[MadtownPacker]

Thought Tex is the only one here who doesn’t consume alcohol.

But he could be passed out after playing tennis and getting laid.

[texaspackerbacker]

It's been in the 20s here all day, so no tennis, but 1 outta 2 ain't bad. I'm the only one who doesn't drink? I guess that explains some things hahahahaha.

Of course, I'm right. Of course LaFleur know more than any of us, in a football context anyway. And just maybe Joe Barry does too.

[KYPack]

Thought Tex is the only one here who doesn’t consume alcohol.

But he could be passed out after playing tennis and getting laid.

You going to the ball game, man?

[MadtownPacker]

No senor. I will be watching on the rec room tv with the homeboys. Unless some shit kicks off and we go on lockdown before Saturday. Then I will have to watch on the tv reflection off the CO’s pod glass. I’m hoping Smiley gets house arrest release on Thursday because I’m next in line for a door window that looks right at the TV.

[smuggler]

So the goal is to flat line along either the x or y axis or more preferably shoot a 45 degree?

Top right diagonal stripe contains the best overall teams and then teams get progressively worse as you approach the bottom left stripe. GB/SF are effectively neutral in this comparison.

[Vincenzo]

Where I do get concerned about the matchup Saturday night is that this Packer team allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game during the regular season and they’re playing a 49ers team that averaged the 3rd most rushing yards per game.
Samuel and McCaffrey are a scary duo to consider.

[Joemailman]

Lately though Packers have been shutting down opposing RB's. Dak found some running room, so they'll need to watch Purdy. But their run defense has definitely improved. Entire season stats don't mean that much right now. In many areas, the Packers are a drastically different team than they were the 1st nine games.

[bobblehead]

Nobody wants to hear this, but they can attack the whole field. The best you can do is either hope for a penalty or mental error on their part or bend and then hold in the red zone when there’s less field to cover.

But nobody likes bend but don’t break. The theory is you get aggressive and you shut down the best teams. The reality is, you get aggressive and then you lose the game before it even starts.

It’s a lot easier to stop a team when the end zone shortens the area to cover. So bend but don’t break. That’s how you cover them.

Quite literally, Joe Barry is a good defensive coordinator. He’s doing it right.

I'll ignore the last statement as 30 years of history says otherwise.

However, they don't attack the entire field. They don't have a field stretcher and even if they did Purdy doesn't have a very strong arm. The way to defend them is to get pressure up the middle, maybe using some ILB blitzes or stunts. Force Purdy off his spot and make it impossible for him to step up and set his feet. He is much less effective if he is forced to move sideways. Then just do the normal stuff that we don't usually try with our really good DC. Disrupt the routes in their infancy, give some help behind the initial 7 yards and hope you get to the QB in time. I'm not too worried about Purdy burning us deep. They don't have a Watson, or Love's arm.

[bobblehead]

Fritz, I’m being a bit of a contrarian with the hyperbole, maybe ever so slightly inching toward troll status. But truly, during the stretch the DEFENSE was struggling we were missing Jaire, Savage and Campbell was banged up. We had:

7th round rookie corner
Undrafted rookie corner
Special teams player nickle (who’s not horrible, but barely average)
Special teams player safety in Ford who is atrocious
And
Owens who’s maybe average and only because he can tackle.


The entire back end was a sieve based on TALENT.


So while I am exaggerating Barry’s greatness, it’s not coming from a place of being a contrarian. It’s coming from the place of being annoyed by the lazy takes about the coach that don’t bother to consider what he’s working with. You guys deserve it for being so silly.

Barry HAS done a pretty good job in the playoffs. Its a fucked up dynamic where he just hands the keys to bad offenses, but then handles Detroit, Dallas, KC...even the 49ers when they needed a blocked punt to beat us.
I'm just hoping that he continues to gameplan better for elite teams. Just a couple more times. I'm ok with him saving his job if we win the next 3.

[Upnorth]

Quay needs to have a career defining game. Shanahan schemes the middle a lot. If quay can be Ray Lewis, we have a chance.

That's a massive if