Official Packers at 49ers Divisional Round Discussion Thread

[Joemailman]

Hey Joe (btw great Jimi tune) you observed in another thread how this is beginning to mirror a past season. Can you please update?
1. Beat Bears
2. Beat #1 division seed.
3. Maybe…???

Beat Bears in regular season finale to make playoffs
Beat NFC East champ in wild card round (Philadelphia in 2010)
Beat NFC #1 seed in divisional (Atlanta in 2010)
Beat NFC North champ in NFCCG

[Joemailman]

49ers starting ILB Dre Greenlaw listed as questionable with an achilles. 49ers don't take their ILB's off the field much. If Greenlaw plays, I would really look for MLF to try and isolate TE's and maybe even Jones on him.

[RashanGary]

We’ve been playing two months straight of back against the wall football. The 9ers haven’t played a meaningful game in almost a month. I think you want to take the ball first again. I think we might be able to get in a cheap shot with our sharpness vs them knocking off the rust. And then right away, you kind of have them and their crowd stunned.

[RashanGary]

It’s looking like off and on rain. Maybe if Purdy is in a rain drive you can take a couple risks with single safety and make him try to go over the top. He’s got small hands, a weak arm AND the receivers have a better chance of drops with a wet ball. I think there are enough factors making a long pass unlikely that you can get aggressive on underneath stuff.

[QBME]

Beat Bears in regular season finale to make playoffs
Beat NFC East champ in wild card round (Philadelphia in 2010)
Beat NFC #1 seed in divisional (Atlanta in 2010)
Beat NFC North champ in NFCCG

Yes, thank you.

I ain't superstitious (late, great Jeff Beck), but stars seem to be aligning .

[Joemailman]

Expect a lot of penalties Saturday. The officiating crew doing the game called the most penalties during the regular season, averaging 15.3. Packers and 49ers were both in the top third of most penalized teams.

[smuggler]

They do not run whole crews in the playoffs. The NFL puts together new crews with the highest graded officials.

[RashanGary]

Expect a lot of penalties Saturday. The officiating crew doing the game called the most penalties during the regular season, averaging 15.3. Packers and 49ers were both in the top third of most penalized teams.

Most of sf penalties must come on the defense side because I didn’t see many at all from their offense in 4 games. Or maybe they were penalized earlier in the season on offense.

[RashanGary]

Christians dad, Tim Watson (drafted by Ron Wolf to the Packers in the early 90s) watched all of the 49ers tape. His analysis was really close to what I saw too.

The thing that stood out from Purdy that both of us saw was how regularly he completed those deep out routes. Deebo and Aiyuk both run those routes really well, especially aiyuk. And Purdy throws them with great anticipation. You know why they’re getting there, but still, when you see that ball hovering in the air off of his average arm strength, you’re thinking it’s a house call every time and instead it’s a freaking 20 yard gain.

23 and 37 are snappy guys who can really break on the ball. Don’t be surprised if they sit on one of those and make a house call. Purdys luck is going to run out on those.

[RashanGary]

https://x.com/interneth0f/status/1748201136350278126?s=46&t=nQImf8h3Oxzq2_jOx_kBGw

This was a really bad matchup, but this is “pad level” coaching tape.

[RashanGary]

Oh shit! 30 hours away and the hourly is 85% chance of rain from 6pm-11pm. If there’s 85% chance in any given hour it’s gotta be over 99% over the course of the game.

It’s gonna be a mudder.

Love has huge hands, Purdy tiny. Passing isn’t going to be easy for anyone, but Purdy might fumble when his arm goes back. Dillon never fumbles.

This is a completely different game than it looks on paper. 49ers really are the favorite. If anything it evens the playing field.

[RashanGary]

Guys who rely less on changing direction and should excel on a slippery surface….

AJ Dillon
Christian Watson
Luke Musgrave
Jonathan Taylor

To a lesser degree
Tucker Kraft


49ers players
McCaffrey (he’s surprisingly a north/south guy at his size
Juan Jennings

To a lesser degree
Kittle



So bet accordingly, degenerates.

[RashanGary]

I just made a $25, 8-leg parlay bet to win $2,100

This is a mud game parlay (relying on a bunch of things that are more likely or less likely to happen in a mud game)


Under Purdy completions
Under Purdy attempts
Under Love completions
Under Love attempts
Over McCaffrey yards (he’s a north/south runner who should excel in a mud game. And has fresh legs)
Over Juan Jennings receptions (hes their only guy who’s not quick and doesn’t require this quick breaks that won’t happen in a mud game)
Under Aiyuk receptions (relys too much on change of direction)
Green Bay to +9.5 (shouldn’t be high scoring)

[RashanGary]

I fucking love my chances to hit this parlay. It’s obviously long odds when 8’freaking things ALL have to happen, but at +8700, I think the odds make it a good bet.

[George Cumby]

~0.5-1.0" rain between now and kickoff.