Cap affect of paying as you go vs pushing out and having dead space

[Ratatouille]

The original post assumes the players all remain healthy and a playing at an appropriate level. I stole a bit from Darrell Royal** but three things can happen when signing a player to a multiyear contract and two of them are bad; the player can meet/exceed expectations, fail to play to the level of the contract, or suffer an injury (injuries) that make the contract a cap burden. The third of these is especially detrimental as a team then needs to spend additional money for a replacement player. Most teams try to structure contracts to have an out after year two and the option to kick money into future years by using roster bonuses that can be converted to a signing bonus and divided out over the remaining years of a contract.

** Darrell Royal (60s Texas Longhorns coach) " I’ve always felt that three things can happen to you whenever you throw the football, and two of them are bad. You can catch the ball, you can throw it incomplete, or have it intercepted."

[texaspackerbacker]

The difference between the NFL and MLB of course, is that in the NFL it's not guaranteed beyond the first year in virtually every case. You can cut them if they fail or get hurt without future harm except for cap issues from bonuses paid.

Wasn't that quote from Woody Hayes, not Darrell Royal?

[Fritz]

The difference between the NFL and MLB of course, is that in the NFL it's not guaranteed beyond the first year in virtually every case. You can cut them if they fail or get hurt without future harm except for cap issues from bonuses paid.

Wasn't that quote from Woody Hayes, not Darrell Royal?

I thought it was Woody Hayes, but time has shown that those fears don't warrant the way they called offenses - not even back then. Bo Schembecler would storm through the Big Ten every year just because he and Woody Hayes got all the best athletes (Hmm, could it be they cheated???), but whenever he got to the Rose Bowl, his teams got stomped because he was runnng the ball forty-five times a game and passing maybe three times. His style of ball was out-of-date by the mid-70's.

So, as we used to say so eloquently in college, fuck that shit.

As for the cap, I do tend to be more conservative. Pay as you go. Though I realize that may not be the best way to get a Super Bowl. Gotta be flexible, to some degree, at least.

[texaspackerbacker]

So for a simplistic financial conservative like me, roster bonus = good because you're not living on credit, and signing bonuses pushed ahead = bad because then in 2026 you're paying for something that you bought in 2022 that you may not even have any more.

Simplistic, I know. But you helped me understand the concepts, so thank you.

True, but in the short term, there is benefit - just like buying a house or car to use your credit analogy. Is it a good thing to have to walk or ride a bicycle until you can pay cash for a car?

And consequences? Yes, but ...... You can count on the cap going up, which enables if not cooking it per se, pushing things on down the road over and over and over, and benefiting every step of the way. The consequence might be not being able to afford quite as much as some other team for a free agent, but going overboard like that might be overpaying and not wise anyway. The successful teams generally push the cap to near the limit and are generally glad they did.

[sharpe1027]

You need to utilize all the tools, IMHO. I do think the natural tendency is to be overly aggressive in the short term to the detriment of the long term. That's only natural given the incentives to keep your job as a GM often require results every year.

[Fritz]

True, but in the short term, there is benefit - just like buying a house or car to use your credit analogy. Is it a good thing to have to walk or ride a bicycle until you can pay cash for a car?

And consequences? Yes, but ...... You can count on the cap going up, which enables if not cooking it per se, pushing things on down the road over and over and over, and benefiting every step of the way. The consequence might be not being able to afford quite as much as some other team for a free agent, but going overboard like that might be overpaying and not wise anyway. The successful teams generally push the cap to near the limit and are generally glad they did.

Tex, were you one of those guys who was juggling four or five women at a time??

[bobblehead]

Yes. The difference is the roster bonus hits all in the year it's paid, so you can cut or trade the player with no acceleration of cap into that year. When you push cap into future years using signing bonuses, you end up in situations where cutting or trading a player accelerates so much cap it's not possible to cut or trade the player. You then might have to carry a worthless player on your roster for one or more years paying significantly more than if you had not pushed so much cap into future years.

Thank god we never did that!!!

[sharpe1027]

Tex, were you one of those guys who was juggling four or five women at a time??

Sounds expensive.

[texaspackerbacker]

Tex, were you one of those guys who was juggling four or five women at a time??

hahahaha just manipulating the cap.

[bobblehead]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/ghost-of-contracts-past-haunts-packers-salary-cap/ar-BB1jQALD?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=LCTS&cvid=1d0102d4fc5e4d4c977493a4527e2ab2&ei=146

I know I should let this topic die, but this was a good article. Packers have over $50 million dead money this year. Not sure how much we have kicked forward, but I think its probably less, which means that we are currently operating at a cap liability for the years we went all in. The good news is that most teams did a similar thing after COVID so the net negative isn't as bad, but the few teams who didn't leverage the future have a pretty sizeable advantage to sign their own right now.

[texaspackerbacker]

Yet we have one of the best teams in the NFL present and future, and we're moderately active in free agency getting help where it's needed.

[sharpe1027]

We made a tough decision to cut Jones so we could make some important free agent moves. If not for all that dead cap, we could have kept Jones at his old salary and still signed even more free agents, or used the cap space to lock up Love early.

I'm not saying pushing cap out is always bad, but it has real consequences.

[texaspackerbacker]

What you can do isn't necessarily what it's smart to do. Paying Jones $12 million for whatever percentage of the season he will likely be available probably would not have been smart.

[Sparkey]

I think that Gutey has shown the best way of limit the negative after effects of "going all in" is to draft exceptionally well so that you have a deep well of exciting talent on 1st and 2nd year contracts.

[Frozen Tundra]

I think that Gutey has shown the best way of limit the negative after effects of "going all in" is to draft exceptionally well so that you have a deep well of exciting talent on 1st and 2nd year contracts.

That's the picture that is starting to paint itself, and I'm getting really excited to see where this line of thinking takes us. If I'm the rest of teh entire NFL, I'm paying very close attention to what Gute has done almost from the very beginning (but certainly since 2020) and studying this strategy and where it is leading. I'm stsrting to think that he's creating a model for team-building that may become the new gold standard for the entire league - the GM equivalent of Bill Walsh's West Coast Offense.

The more I see this guy work, the more I like him. I'm really excited about where this is going.