NFL Offseason/Free Agency Thread

[Fritz]

Whine all ya'all want about cap cooking, but it has served the Packers and most successful teams well for a long time. The few teams that struggle are the ones who think like some of ya'all in here - that they have to periodically (and stupidly) stop cooking and rebuild.

What really kills success is bad luck, like when somebody they really expect to carry the team either suddenly fades (Wilson) or gets hurt (Rodgers).

So the only teams that suffer are those who come to eventually “believe” the cap is real and foolishly try to balance the books?

Wow. I just need to make sure I never start to believe the Drew Barrymore won’t go out with me.

Come on, Drew. Let’s hit the town, baby!

[run pMc]

Is 'bad luck' a euphemism for 'aging'? Because that's what Russell and Rodgers have done to where injuries and poor performance get you. Having an old QB fail to play well or last a full season is not bad luck, it's bad planning.

At some point teams have to at least ease up if not stop cooking, otherwise the weight of the dead cap hits prevents your team from signing or keeping (good) players. If GB hadn't hit the jackpot on its receivers this past season, or if Gute hadn't drafted Jordan Love, they would've been a trainwreck last year...and they had kicked everything they could forward just to get under the cap and absorb Rodgers cap hit.

[bobblehead]

Is 'bad luck' a euphemism for 'aging'? Because that's what Russell and Rodgers have done to where injuries and poor performance get you. Having an old QB fail to play well or last a full season is not bad luck, it's bad planning.

At some point teams have to at least ease up if not stop cooking, otherwise the weight of the dead cap hits prevents your team from signing or keeping (good) players. If GB hadn't hit the jackpot on its receivers this past season, or if Gute hadn't drafted Jordan Love, they would've been a trainwreck last year...and they had kicked everything they could forward just to get under the cap and absorb Rodgers cap hit.

Bad Luck is a thing in the short term. But people like Tex (and APB) think making poor decisions over and over equates bad luck.

[texaspackerbacker]

Maybe, run pMc, but they had good reason to believe Wilson would be way better than he turned out to be - I call that bad luck. Worse luck for them would be if he snapped back and played good for somebody else - on their money. Joe, I know in baseball it happens like you described. I don't know, but isn't there some rule in the NFL that a guy can't double dip - still receive money from one team and then sign and get more with somebody else?

As for Rodgers, I'm actually predicting that Rodgers comes back and plays like the GOAT that he is this year for the Jets, unless there is another round of bad luck, and he gets hurt again.

Fritz, yes, now you're getting it - exactly like you said, sarcasm be damned hahahaha. As for you and Drew, luck has it's limits. I Googled her, age is catching up with her. She's 46 now, so maybe you 've got a chance like the Steelers with Wilson hahahaha.

bobblehead, yeah, that's about right I guess, but I can't really say cuz I never had any extended run of bad luck - it must mean good decisions hahahaha.

[NewsBruin]

I read in some Yahoo Sports article that Russ Wilson didn't have the same super-meticulous playbook memorization that Drew Brees had (I assume the source is Payton or someone on the offensive staff), so a lot of the if-thens and hundreds of plays were scrapped for a slimmer selection.

Back in my fantasy football seasons, I remember the Broncos having a number of above-average WRs/TEs but never a clear #1. Most of those dudes I was waiting for a breakout were still on the roster (until Jeudy got traded). So it's not like talent was a problem, but I think Wilson wasn't the playbook nerd/non-improvisor Sean Payton wanted. That may be part of "bad luck," when the coach and QB don't agree on how to play offense.

[NewsBruin]

Joe, I know in baseball it happens like you described. I don't know, but isn't there some rule in the NFL that a guy can't double dip - still receive money from one team and then sign and get more with somebody else?

I remember reading that "offsets" were one of the negotiating angles in the revamped draft contracts, and it looks like it's caught up to the vets as well.

I keep reading that Russell will get his full guaranteed Broncos salary minus whatever his current team pays him. I'm curious if his Steelers minimum is added back to the Broncos cap or if both teams lose out on that $1.xxx million.

[Frozen Tundra]

Whine all ya'all want about cap cooking, but it has served the Packers and most successful teams well for a long time.

"Whining"? Whose posts are you reading? I don't see anyone "whining" about cooking the cap; just saying that like any financial tool, it has to be used wisely and sparingly. Similar to credit cards, it can be a useful and important part of managing your budget, but - also like revolving credit - there is a risk. If you overuse it, it will limit your flexibility and limit your options for spending money on things in the future.

It's just simple common sense.

The few teams that struggle are the ones who think like some of ya'all in here - that they have to periodically (and stupidly) stop cooking and rebuild.

Which more often than not are the teams that keep kicking the cap down the road year after year because they let themselves get trapped in a cycle where eventually their only option is to tear it all down and start from scratch - like New Orleans is going to have to do now, and to some degree Denver. Just like people who can't manage credit cards. They run up big credit card debt, when the car breaks down they have to buy used because they don't have enough credit to buy new.

What really kills success is bad luck, like when somebody they really expect to carry the team either suddenly fades (Wilson) or gets hurt (Rodgers).

First of all, bad luck is one of the things that can really kill success, but it isn't the one thing. The world just isn't that simple a place. Just like with personal finances, if you plan carefully and manage your budget wisely you can survive bad luck - but if you plan foolishly, you better damned well hope your luck stays good, because if it goes bad, you're screwed.

Which is the story right now in Denver. What you call "bad luck" is what everyone else on the planet calls one of the stupidest deals any team ever made in the history of the NFL. It was a foolish risk, and it's going to cripple them for years. You can't just handwave that away as bad luck, they have nobody to blame for that but themselves. Smart GMs don't do things like put themselves into a position where they need to pray for good luck.

[Joemailman]

Tony Pollard signing 3 year, 24M deal with Titans

Vikings signing Texans OLB Jonathan Greenard to a 4 year 76M deal with 42M guaranteed. Greenard had 12.5 sacks in 2023.

Bears signing RB D'Andre Swift to a 3 year 24M deal.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

I don’t think that number counts Russell’s cap hit. Over the cap has them at $19M over after releasing Russell.

You’re either misreading or simply cannot comprehend your own source. Wilson currently sits at the very top of the Broncos’ cap hit this season at 35.4M, according to OTC. Broncos are currently 28.8M under the cap, according to OTC.

But yeah, since I lack knowledge of astrology, I’ll just assume that the sun is 8 minutes away from the earth - just like the person who cannot understand the dynamics of the NFL salary cap assumes the Broncos are in a cap hell, especially since they saw the 85M “dead money” figure.

[run pMc]

Savage signing with JAX for 3 years.

[Joemailman]

Tony Pollard signing 3 year, 24M deal with Titans

Vikings signing Texans OLB Jonathan Greenard to a 4 year 76M deal with 42M guaranteed. Greenard had 12.5 sacks in 2023.

Bears signing RB D'Andre Swift to a 3 year 24M deal.

Raider signing former Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins to 4 year, 110M deal with 84.75M guaranteed.

Jaguars signing former Bills WR Gabe Davis.

Rams signing former Lions G Jonah Jackson to a 3 year 51M deal with 34M guaranteed.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

They need to create cap space to pay off the Russ contract.

No they don’t. The greed-fucked Waltons just don’t want to pay Juedy his 12.9M 5th year option. All things being equal, Broncos coulda kept Juedy and still be $16M beneath the cap.

Trading Juedy costs the Broncos $0 in “dead money.”

[run pMc]

Packers are signing RB Josh Jacobs, according to reports. Holy crap. What are we doing?

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Packers are signing RB Josh Jacobs, according to reports. Holy crap. What are we doing?

Wait, what? Ain’t the Packers in a cap hell?

[Joemailman]

Kirk Cousins signing with Falcons.

Tony Pollard signing 3 year, 24M deal with Titans

Vikings signing Texans OLB Jonathan Greenard to a 4 year 76M deal with 42M guaranteed. Greenard had 12.5 sacks in 2023.

Bears signing RB D'Andre Swift to a 3 year 24M deal.

Raider signing former Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins to 4 year, 110M deal with 84.75M guaranteed.

Jaguars signing former Bills WR Gabe Davis.

Rams signing former Lions G Jonah Jackson to a 3 year 51M deal with 34M guaranteed.