Grading the Packer's Draft

[Fritz]

Fritz, you are a harsh grader. Ignore injuries. Stokes, Myers, slaton and McDuffie can olay at various levels. We Recouped the van lanen pick. Hill.was a good talent, but a head case that didn't pan out.

You assume because of the image I posted that I gave the draft a failing grade.

However, some poop is of better quality than other poop. Any poop after a bag of White Castle hamburgers is the worst of the worst of poops. Your shredded-looking, slightly green poop after a meal of mashed potatoes and ribeye following the day before's pizza is bad, really bad. But if you're eating salad, and you have some corn with your vegetarian main dish, than you're looking at a well-formed, higher quality poop.

I'd say it was a poopy draft, but not White-Castle-Poop bad. Stokes, at the beginning of his second year - before he suffered his major injury - already had some folks scratching their heads at what seemed to be a drop-off in his play. Myers - a functional center, but you hope for more than functional with a second round pick. Slaton, a rotational guy. Newman, barely hanging on depth guy. Kylin Hill actually looked promising before he hurt himself and then showed his head-case side. So they took a seventh-round swing on him, no problem.

But really, a poopy draft. Mid-range-quality poop, but still, poopy.

[run pMc]

2021 draft - Stokes being injured makes it a little tough to grade, but drags things down.
Myers is an average NFL starting C. Not above average, not below average. You can win with him, but you'll be looking to replace him. He'll get a contract somewhere, even if it's a 1 year deal. A bit steep to use a R2 on him, and over Humphrey but he's started a lot of games.
Rodgers was a bad pick.
Newman was a starter as a rookie and held up well, and went downhill from there. There's some value returned by a R4 OL who gave you 24 starts, even if half of them were meh at best.
TJ Slaton is turning in to a good player. He had some games last year where he was really good. He's a bit miscast in a 4-3 but he will absolutely get a 2nd contract somewhere.
SJC never panned out. I thought he was a slot CB but they tried him outside mostly.
Cole Van Lanen turned into the Anthony Johnson Jr. pick. Jury's out there, but CVL is still playing for JAX
McDuffie might be a starter this year, he's been solid depth and ST stalwart. Not bad for R6. A lot of R6 guys don't stay on the roster the length of their contract. He'll get a 2nd contract somewhere.
Kylin Hill showed promise, then he ran the kickoff out when he wasn't supposed to, blew out his knee, and got mad about his spot on the depth chart. They let him go and after a cup of coffee here and there I believe he's out of football. That's how it goes with R7 picks sometimes.

I'd give the draft a C-, simply because of Stokes being hurt, and the whiff on Rodgers. Myers and Newman have been disappointments but the draft as a whole wasn't a total dud.

[run pMc]

Here's a grade: Giant F to the Falcons for taking Penix at 8, and after paying Cousins. They let the Bears pick Rome Odunze, who will be a problem for the NFCN.

[smuggler]

Pretty annoyed the Vikings got Dallas Turner, too, even if they didn't get much else this year (or next).

[Fritz]

2021 draft - Stokes being injured makes it a little tough to grade, but drags things down.
Myers is an average NFL starting C. Not above average, not below average. You can win with him, but you'll be looking to replace him. He'll get a contract somewhere, even if it's a 1 year deal. A bit steep to use a R2 on him, and over Humphrey but he's started a lot of games.
Rodgers was a bad pick.
Newman was a starter as a rookie and held up well, and went downhill from there. There's some value returned by a R4 OL who gave you 24 starts, even if half of them were meh at best.
TJ Slaton is turning in to a good player. He had some games last year where he was really good. He's a bit miscast in a 4-3 but he will absolutely get a 2nd contract somewhere.
SJC never panned out. I thought he was a slot CB but they tried him outside mostly.
Cole Van Lanen turned into the Anthony Johnson Jr. pick. Jury's out there, but CVL is still playing for JAX
McDuffie might be a starter this year, he's been solid depth and ST stalwart. Not bad for R6. A lot of R6 guys don't stay on the roster the length of their contract. He'll get a 2nd contract somewhere.
Kylin Hill showed promise, then he ran the kickoff out when he wasn't supposed to, blew out his knee, and got mad about his spot on the depth chart. They let him go and after a cup of coffee here and there I believe he's out of football. That's how it goes with R7 picks sometimes.

I'd give the draft a C-, simply because of Stokes being hurt, and the whiff on Rodgers. Myers and Newman have been disappointments but the draft as a whole wasn't a total dud.

It weren't a draft that gets you closer to the Super Bowl. Let's put it that way.

[run pMc]

Stokes, SJC and Slaton are the only picks at "Premium Positions" (QB. OT, DL, EDGE, CB) so if they don't hit on those they aren't very glamorous. Missing on Amari was tough too.

I think looking at number of starts, if they reach the end of their contract on the roster, and if they get a 2nd contract are all reasonable metrics if combined with others.

Picking Amari over Amon-Ra or Nico Collins still stings, and it's very easy to bias the entire class negatively based on his ROI alone.

[run pMc]

Back to this draft: I think the 2nd round was pretty good, and I like some of the Day 3 picks. I'll leave it at that. It's hard to say much else when we haven't even seen them in a preseason game yet.

I don't understand how media can "grade" a draft other than to compare a team's draft with their own board or a consensus board, which is not going to match the team's board. The best they can do is compare based on team needs and perceived value according to a public draft listing.
It's like comparing the answers to two similar but not identical math tests.

Draft grades are content to feed fan appetite. Nobody remembers what writers gave the 2021 draft. Fun watercooler stuff but meaningless.

[Scott Campbell]

Stokes, SJC and Slaton are the only picks at "Premium Positions" (QB. OT, DL, EDGE, CB) so if they don't hit on those they aren't very glamorous. Missing on Amari was tough too.

I think looking at number of starts, if they reach the end of their contract on the roster, and if they get a 2nd contract are all reasonable metrics if combined with others.

Picking Amari over Amon-Ra or Nico Collins still stings, and it's very easy to bias the entire class negatively based on his ROI alone.

Making it a little worse, I think Gute traded up for Amari.

[ThunderDan]

Back to this draft: I think the 2nd round was pretty good, and I like some of the Day 3 picks. I'll leave it at that. It's hard to say much else when we haven't even seen them in a preseason game yet.

I don't understand how media can "grade" a draft other than to compare a team's draft with their own board or a consensus board, which is not going to match the team's board. The best they can do is compare based on team needs and perceived value according to a public draft listing.
It's like comparing the answers to two similar but not identical math tests.

Draft grades are content to feed fan appetite. Nobody remembers what writers gave the 2021 draft. Fun watercooler stuff but meaningless.

I was listening to NFL Radio on Sirius and they were saying a draft picks value is nothing until they start helping your team win games. All they are is potential at this point, we will find out if this draft was good or bad when the players hit the field or don't.

[Fritz]

I was listening to NFL Radio on Sirius and they were saying a draft picks value is nothing until they start helping your team win games. All they are is potential at this point, we will find out if this draft was good or bad when the players hit the field or don't.

True. You can "grade" a draft for whether the team stuck to a coherent plan, whether they addressed positional needs, and that sort of thing, but you can't grade the picks themselves until you're at least two seasons in, probably three.

So if Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt don't take that one more step, then you can probably say that draft was not so great, in terms of the first round. They're both starting-caliber, which is good, but both seem to have not quite met the first-round expectations. Though this could be that year.

[RashanGary]

This was the year after the Covid season. It was, like this year, a historically thin draft. If the grade is a C based on normal expectations, he probably performed at about B level compared to the rest of the league that year.

Likewise, this years draft probably won’t be so great in the mid to later rounds either.

[sharpe1027]

True. You can "grade" a draft for whether the team stuck to a coherent plan, whether they addressed positional needs, and that sort of thing, but you can't grade the picks themselves until you're at least two seasons in, probably three.

So if Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt don't take that one more step, then you can probably say that draft was not so great, in terms of the first round. They're both starting-caliber, which is good, but both seem to have not quite met the first-round expectations. Though this could be that year.

Your first round expectations are higher than mine.

[run pMc]

This was the year after the Covid season. It was, like this year, a historically thin draft. If the grade is a C based on normal expectations, he probably performed at about B level compared to the rest of the league that year.

Likewise, this years draft probably won’t be so great in the mid to later rounds either.

COVID definitely impacted the draft.
Getting an extra year meant you have more older prospects coming out.

NIL is the other piece to the puzzle. Combined with getting an extra year of eligibility from COVID, players have less incentive to declare early. In 2021 it might have resulted in a thinner draft, but I don't think 2024 was a thinner draft because of it. I actually think NIL makes for more robust drafts -- you have better developed players or players with more demonstrated production at the college level for scouts.

The talent at specific positions also varies by year (this year's QB class = very good, this year's ILB class = not so good)... so RG you're not wrong but I just think there are a lot of factors in play you didn't mention.

[MadScientist]

This year's draft may have been weakened by fewer players starting college in 2020, due to COVID.

[RashanGary]

COVID definitely impacted the draft.
Getting an extra year meant you have more older prospects coming out.

NIL is the other piece to the puzzle. Combined with getting an extra year of eligibility from COVID, players have less incentive to declare early. In 2021 it might have resulted in a thinner draft, but I don't think 2024 was a thinner draft because of it. I actually think NIL makes for more robust drafts -- you have better developed players or players with more demonstrated production at the college level for scouts.

The talent at specific positions also varies by year (this year's QB class = very good, this year's ILB class = not so good)... so RG you're not wrong but I just think there are a lot of factors in play you didn't mention.

There were only 50 juniors that came out. Usually it’s 100. Juniors are staying back because of the NIL and portal. They make money at school now.

Next year there will be more seniors so next years draft will go back to being deeper.