Willis Value

[RashanGary]

There is a big miscalculation on his value here. Nobody wants a starting QB who plays that style. It works in the short term, but nobody wants to pay 45M per year (going rate of a good starting Qb with upside) for a guy who plays such an injury prone style of football.

[Fritz]

Josh Allen? Jalen Hurts?

I think having a good backup QB the next two years and then getting a compensatory pick is worth more than trading him after this season for a pick that likely isn’t much better than what the comp pick would be. I doubt that two games starting this year is enough to tempt a team to give up even a second round pick, so what’s the difference between getting a third (at best) after this season versus getting a fourth or fifth after the next two seasons, when some team signs him to a big-but-not-too-big contract to see if he’ll be The Guy?

The Packers are contenders. As we know from experience, having a competent backup QB is crucial.

[Patler]

If this is all he plays this year, or maybe another game or two, no one is going to give up more than a third day draft pick for him next offseason anyway. He hasn't PROVEN anything yet.

The Packers have a good young roster that should have real playoff potential the next two years. A capable, inexpensive backup QB is invaluable to them, as we have seen already. Where would this season be if they were at 0-3 right now?

If they lose him in FA in a couple years, so be it. They will at least get their investment back, but likely more if he continues to show well, even if it is just in preseason games. Having him for security the next two seasons is worth whatever the difference is between a possible trade and the comp pick they will get.

Of course, all this presumes he continues on the path he seems to be on.

Josh Allen? Jalen Hurts?

I think having a good backup QB the next two years and then getting a compensatory pick is worth more than trading him after this season for a pick that likely isn’t much better than what the comp pick would be. I doubt that two games starting this year is enough to tempt a team to give up even a second round pick, so what’s the difference between getting a third (at best) after this season versus getting a fourth or fifth after the next two seasons, when some team signs him to a big-but-not-too-big contract to see if he’ll be The Guy?

The Packers are contenders. As we know from experience, having a competent backup QB is crucial.

Exactly, Fritz. You said it more clearly than I did, but I was trying to say exactly the same thing. I may have confused some by referring to "a third day draft pick", meaning rounds 4 thru 7.

They only have a 7th invested in him. If they lose him in FA, the compensatory value should be at least that. Even if the Packers themselves are active in FA, and so get no compensation for him, I don't care. Having a backup QB who is inexpensive and yet can win games is very valuable to a team that thinks it is a Super Bowl contender.

Keep him as long as you can, and be satisfied with what you get when he leaves, even if it is nothing.

The only thing that could make me consider trading him next year is if catastrophe hits this year, Willis plays another 8 or 10 games, looks like a legit starting QB, and someone offers a first or second for him; but even then, only if whatever took Love out for this year would not limit him next year.

[sharpe1027]

Who said he is worth more than a third to the Packers, but not to other teams?
I don't understand your comment.

Sorry, you said third day, not third round. I suspect you knew what happened and are asking rhetorically to prove a point?

My point is it's hard to imagine he has more value to the Packers as a backup than to a team that thinks he might start. The Packers are committed to Love for the foreseeable future. Willis looks like he could be an upgrade for several teams as a starter. Not guaranteed, but even the possibility means more value than what the Packers can get.

[sharpe1027]

Josh Allen? Jalen Hurts?

I think having a good backup QB the next two years and then getting a compensatory pick is worth more than trading him after this season for a pick that likely isn’t much better than what the comp pick would be. I doubt that two games starting this year is enough to tempt a team to give up even a second round pick, so what’s the difference between getting a third (at best) after this season versus getting a fourth or fifth after the next two seasons, when some team signs him to a big-but-not-too-big contract to see if he’ll be The Guy?

The Packers are contenders. As we know from experience, having a competent backup QB is crucial.

They only get that high of a compensatory pick if someone values him and gives him a big contract, right?

I don't know what his value is in terms of round, but if he's got any value as a starter, the value should be higher with those teams than for the Packers, right?

[Fritz]

Any team that bothers to sign a free agent quarterback whom they think will be their starter is going to pay a relatively high salary, so I'd imagine if that is the case, the Packers would at least get a fourth rounder for the compensatory pick. QB's are that valuable.

And I wonder about your second point: after seeing Willis for two games as a starter, given that he has hardly had time to get acclimated, isn't it possible the Packers value him more now than they did when they spent a mere seventh for him three weeks ago? And IF he doesn't start again for Green Bay this year, is a two-game span enough for a team to give up much more than maybe a fourth for him next off-season?

For me, overall, having a competent backup for the next two years for a team that fancies itself a SB contender is quite important - more important than picking up an extra third or fourth round pick next draft, and starting over in the search for a backup QB.

[sharpe1027]

A team offers a trade based on their perceived value of Willis to their team. The Packers almost certainly value him higher than a 7th rounder, but that's different than them valuing him higher than any other team.

If even one team thinks he's starting material, won't they almost certainly place a higher value than the Packers, who only value him as a backup? Won't it be at least possible that leads to a situation where the Packers are offered more value in a trade than the see in him as a backup?

[MadtownPacker]

These past two games would convince me to find a way to keep him if I was signing the checks. A true backup is needed so who cares about a draft pick.

[sharpe1027]

These past two games would convince me to find a way to keep him if I was signing the checks. A true backup is needed so who cares about a draft pick.

At some point, if you get enough, you trade him though, right?

[Joemailman]

Why does everybody want to trade a guy now that we found out he's actually a good football player?

[ThunderDan]

At some point, if you get enough, you trade him though, right?

I think every GM is making that decision about every player. And then they have to take into consideration cap hit.

My son asked if someone offered 4 1st for Love would you trade him. The answer is no. He would be a $110,000,000 cap hit.

[MadtownPacker]

At some point, if you get enough, you trade him though, right?

If he is that good the other team will make it worth it not late shit or moving up.

I don’t know man. He has been so good I think Love should take another week off.

[MadtownPacker]

Why does everybody want to trade a guy now that we found out he's actually a good football player?

So they can complain about it down the road.

[sharpe1027]

Why does everybody want to trade a guy now that we found out he's actually a good football player?

It's because he plays at a the premium position where a backup doesn't play absent injury. If they are offered enough that they can most likely use the trade gains to get players that will see the field as starters, you should probably take the deal.

Put it this way, if in two years it comes out we turned down an early first round pick, he never starts another game in that time, and all we get is a fourth round compensatory pick, trading him next year is the better option for the team.

[sharpe1027]

If he is that good the other team will make it worth it not late shit or moving up.

I don’t know man. He has been so good I think Love should take another week off.

That's my point, though. We say he's worth so much as a backup. Whatever that value is, he's worth more at a team where he's got a legitimate chance to start. That means someone should be willing to offer more than he's worth to us.

Now, if every other team thinks he's nothing more than a backup, you keep him.