Willis Value

[ThunderDan]

Fine put your money where your mouth is, let’s have a 2 part bet.

Part 1, Willis will not be a Packer next year.
Part 2, Willis new contract will average over $15 million a year.

$100 a leg, loser donates to their favorite charity and posts the receipt.

3 years, $67.5 Million. That is over $22 million a year. I guess I was way under what his value is.

[NewsBruin]

Looking at Miami's 2026 cap roster, trying to figure out what their team will be like this year. They may not have a lot, but they'll have the ability to put out a double-Jaylen/double-Malik offensive formation.

EDIT: They have a cornerback named Storm Duck?

[Fritz]

Double Jaylen? Whuut? Are they trading Reed?

[NewsBruin]

Double Jaylen? Whuut? Are they trading Reed?

No, to qualify for the double-double formation, your last name has to start with W:

QB Malik Willis
WR Malik Washington
RB Jaylen Waddle
RB Jaylen Wright

[bobblehead]

3 years, $67.5 Million. That is over $22 million a year. I guess I was way under what his value is.

I didn't see your post, but I would have accepted the second part, however I agreed 100% he wasn't going to be a packer. I had him pegged for the Steelers.

[pbmax]

People who are overly concerned about the cap - like the crap above - need to learn the difference between static analysis and dynamic analysis.

Well, what does the dynamic analysis tell us now?

[ThunderDan]

I didn't see your post, but I would have accepted the second part, however I agreed 100% he wasn't going to be a packer. I had him pegged for the Steelers.

It was a two part bet with TPB. He was sure Willis was going to be a Packer and was going to be less than $15M a year. I said not a Packer and at least $15M a year.

He wouldn't take the bet.

[bobblehead]

It was a two part bet with TPB. He was sure Willis was going to be a Packer and was going to be less than $15M a year. I said not a Packer and at least $15M a year.

He wouldn't take the bet.

So every once in a great while he is right (to not bet on himself being right).

[NewsBruin]

And history will never see the double-double offensive formation.

[NewsBruin]

Well, what does the dynamic analysis tell us now?

I think it's a way of saying that when agents argue comparable value (Justin Fields/Daniel Jones), against a reliably growing cap, for a scarce commodity, with more than one irrationally thirsty team needing a starting QB, you can find one GM capable of paying above what would be considered market rate because they convince themselves it's better value than what they (or their successor) will get next year.

"Hey, bud, that's a nice jacket. I bet it will look even nicer when you're shaking all of the teal-and-orange confetti out of it next year."

[texaspackerbacker]

It was a two part bet with TPB. He was sure Willis was going to be a Packer and was going to be less than $15M a year. I said not a Packer and at least $15M a year.

He wouldn't take the bet.

hahahaha That's why I didn't bet - I just hoped and thought it might work out that we would keep Willis, but I was wrong (yeah, hard to believe, but it happens). As good as he was with the Packers, I'll make another statement or two that somebody might want to bet against: I think Miami overpaid, and that he will turn out to be not worth the money. I also think that Desmond Ridder will turn out to be a very adequate backup for the Packers, maybe close to as good as Willis if heaven forbid, he gets to play as much.

Dynamic analysis is what the salary cap is all about.

[bobblehead]

I think it's a way of saying that when agents argue comparable value (Justin Fields/Daniel Jones), against a reliably growing cap, for a scarce commodity, with more than one irrationally thirsty team needing a starting QB, you can find one GM capable of paying above what would be considered market rate because they convince themselves it's better value than what they (or their successor) will get next year.

"Hey, bud, that's a nice jacket. I bet it will look even nicer when you're shaking all of the teal-and-orange confetti out of it next year."

Yet if you are GB you can't find that GM who wants to give you even a 2nd for a starting LT on a rookie contract so instead you wait until he has a rough year and get no comp pick even while delaying your own young LTs development. And you hold onto your backup QB until he proves he is just as good as the starter then let him sign for less than half what said starter makes.

[Teamcheez1]

Who will have a better year at QB in 2026?

Love over Willis.

[Fritz]

Yet if you are GB you can't find that GM who wants to give you even a 2nd for a starting LT on a rookie contract so instead you wait until he has a rough year and get no comp pick even while delaying your own young LTs development. And you hold onto your backup QB until he proves he is just as good as the starter then let him sign for less than half what said starter makes.

You've been proven correct - in hindsight. But given that the Packers thought they'd be competing for a championship, and understanding the need for depth on the offensive line, they thought it'd be smarter to keep their first-round second-year tackle as a starting guard or backup. That was understandable, at least, even if it was a poor choice in the end. The big mistake was probably thinking Morgan could play guard well.

I don't blame Guter. He thought - hell, we all thought - the Packers would get a third-round comp pick for Walker. Even after the season was over, most people thought Walker would sign a $20 million contract and the Pack would get a third.

It will be interesting to see how Willis does in Miami this year. I'd bet that if he does well, the Willis backers will be "I told you so"-ing all over. If he doesn't do well, the Willis backers will point out his poor supporting cast.

[ThunderDan]

You've been proven correct - in hindsight. But given that the Packers thought they'd be competing for a championship, and understanding the need for depth on the offensive line, they thought it'd be smarter to keep their first-round second-year tackle as a starting guard or backup. That was understandable, at least, even if it was a poor choice in the end. The big mistake was probably thinking Morgan could play guard well.

I don't blame Guter. He thought - hell, we all thought - the Packers would get a third-round comp pick for Walker. Even after the season was over, most people thought Walker would sign a $20 million contract and the Pack would get a third.

It will be interesting to see how Willis does in Miami this year. I'd bet that if he does well, the Willis backers will be "I told you so"-ing all over. If he doesn't do well, the Willis backers will point out his poor supporting cast.

I have a feeling that Willis won't last a full season. Miami has traded away everybody. I wonder if Willis knew that was going to happen if he would have signed with a different team for less money.