Ted Thompson

[vince]

Add that to the lack of veteran stability on the OL, and lack of play makers at the skill positions, and you have a team that really doesn't have much of a chance to win week in and week out.

I disagree with this assessment. Donald Driver is absolutely underappreciated apparently, and Greg Jennings is a playmaker - and he's only going to get better. Ahman Green can still play, notwithstanding some crucial mental blocks he seemed to have last week. Brett Favre still has more than enough to get the job done. I would be for getting a stud TE, but Bubba, also notwithstanding last week, has been a reliable target when tough yards have been needed...

IMO, and I believe Ted Thompson would agree, his big mistake was not finding a way to re-sign Wahle. He screwed that one up. And as Partial pointed out, noone would have predicted that most of the sacks that Brett has suffered to this point have been a result of Clifton or Tausch. Their play has been disappointing thus far.

When this team learns more about itself, and when the defense can all play together, I think the 06 Packers will be very competitive week in and week out. How many wins this year? Probably more losses than wins, but they'll be more and more competitive as time progresses.

[RashanGary]

Vince,

edit: this is about his post a few above, not the last one vince posted.

I think that might be the best post I've ever seen on packerrats. I don't know how to express full agreement any stronger than just saying I agree. but I AGREE!!!

Nice post, nice way to anylize it. As far as patients and taking risks go, that is Ted Thompson to a T. He's willing to go into a season with a crappy gaurd or a crappy RB because he couldn't get one of value the season before. He's willing to risk losing in the short term so that in the long term he will have a roster truely capable of winning the SB.

As far as vision goes, most people don't understand how the cap effects decisions. They don't realize how Pitts and Sea got where they are, but just want to get there now and know that a FA would help. What they forget to notice is that Pitt didn't sign any FA's to get where they are. They had losing seasons. They didn't reach or get impatiant. When the time was right and a few bounces went their way *Rothlisburger became great*, they won. That is how it's done.

Thompson will prove to be a very good GM IMHO. It won't happen overnight. Each year should be better than the one before and if a little luck goes our way *getting a HOF player at an important position* we'll have a really good chance of winning a SB. BTW, you don't get HOF players at important positions from FA. He has to hit big on at least one draft pick soon if we want to really compete over the next 5 years.

It's not a sure thing, but if he stays strong and doesn't cave into the pressures of short term victories he'll give himself a chance. He better damn well hit on a star player. Maybe that's Hawk and we're well on our way. Maybe it's Adrian Peterson and we're about to get lucky. Who knows but I truely believe he's taking the sound approach and while it hurts now, it won't be so brutally painfull in the years to come.

[Partial]

Vince,

edit: this is about his post a few above, not the last one vince posted.

I think that might be the best post I've ever seen on packerrats. I don't know how to express full agreement any stronger than just saying I agree. but I AGREE!!!

Nice post, nice way to anylize it. As far as patients and taking risks go, that is Ted Thompson to a T. He's willing to go into a season with a crappy gaurd or a crappy RB because he couldn't get one of value the season before. He's willing to risk losing in the short term so that in the long term he will have a roster truely capable of winning the SB.

As far as vision goes, most people don't understand how the cap effects decisions. They don't realize how Pitts and Sea got where they are, but just want to get there now and know that a FA would help. What theyJ forget to notice is that Pitt didn't sign any FA's to get where they are. They had losing seasons. They didn't reach or get impatiant. When the time was right and a few bounces went their way *Rothlisburger became great*, they won. That is how it's done.

Thompson will prove to be a very good GM IMHO. It won't happen overnight. Each year should be better than the one before and if a little luck goes our way *getting a HOF player at an important position* we'll have a really good chance of winning a SB. BTW, you don't get HOF players at important positions from FA. He has to hit big on at least one draft pick soon if we want to really compete over the next 5 years.

It's not a sure thing, but if he stays strong and doesn't cave into the pressures of short term victories he'll give himself a chance. He better damn well hit on a star player. Maybe that's Hawk and we're well on our way. Maybe it's Adrian Peterson and we're about to get lucky. Who knows but I truely believe he's taking the sound approach and while it hurts now, it won't be so brutally painfull in the years to come.

Assuming a GM has their job an average of 5 years. Assuming a different team wins the super bowl, that means only 1/6th of GMs actually win a superbowl. I have a very hard time seeing TT accomplish anything, because he his youth movement may or may not pan out. It is definitely worth note that while there are benefits of going young, the odds are also greater than these players fail to develop, sometimes due to not getting over the mental hump, some for other reasons. There have been no signs of any of this youth stepping up and becoming players yet. Will there be at the end of the year? I doubt it. Do I think some of these guys will be good in 4 years, yes I do, but I then they will be playing in their contract years looking to strike it big, and TT will have too many people to resign to be competitive and keep a roster in tact. Just food for though, i'm off to class.

edit - boy that was poorly written. I typed that at the very end of my java lab before I left the building to go to another class once I completed the work.

A few prime examples of what I have been saying are as follows:

Nick Collins - has he maxed out his potential? Physically he has to tools, but you see him making mental mistakes and being in bad position time and time again. He seems to have regressed this year. Does he have the mental capacity to handle this role? Nick Collins has shown flashes of potential that he could be a great player, but as for now and likely ever in my opinion, he will always only be a solid, slightly better than average starting safety. Solid in the box, and a liability in coverage.

Marviel Underwood - Has he maxed out his potential? He was looking good enough to be a satisfactory back-up in training camp, and now he is hurt. He already wasn't extremely fast, will he be able to recover? My guess is Underwood will be cut next year because he will have lost a step and isn't good enough to justify holding a roster spot for him.

Terrence Murphy - Bad luck. Still have to hold TT accountable, though. He had a second round pick and he is no longer with the team. Woulda, shoulda, coulda doesn't mean shit when it comes to evaluating TT.

Brady Poppinga - The Packers are praying to god he can turn out to be a solid starter at the very least so that they can justify TT building such a young team, and so they can feed to the media more how he is a draft aficionado. Reality is, he is a poor quality starter, and might turn out to be serviceable. Serviceable is pretty good for a 4th round pick, I suppose.

Junius Coston - On the team by default. They have no depth and he is horrid. He is far from being a solid back-up. He will not be on the roster next year. Anyone that thinks he is more than a career back-up is out of their minds.

Mike Hawkins - No longer on the team, and was only on it last year 'cause he could run and jump like the dickens and had ideal height. I think Hawkins will be a solid nickelback 4 years down the road.

Mike Montgomery - looks to be a good pick-up in the late rounds and will develop into a solid but unspectacular player in my opinion. Mike Sherman did this a few times, too, though.

Then, their is Will Whitticker and Craig Braigg - neither are on an NFL team today.

In my opinion, it looks like TT was able to find a late round find (Sherman seemed to do this every year) and be lackluster everywhere else. You would hope with 4 picks on the first day, next year you would have 4 solid starters out of those guys. At best, he will have 2 starters, and neither one is looking especially solid at this point.

This year, it looks like he did a little better. In my opinion, he played it safer and took the guys that were safe picks. Because of that fact, I don't we'll find any players who are top 2 at their position from this draft, but I think he'll find a lot of solid starters. However, having a team with 22 solid starters won't win you a superbowl.

For one, I am not sold that it was him that landed Walter Jones and Shawn Alexander. Perhaps it was dumb luck that they both turned into amazing players, or perhaps it was the scouts that saw that glimmer in them. Who knows. Secondly, there is ZERO evidence in place that displays even a glimmer of hope that he can have a repeat performance of landing to all-time players in the middle-bottom of the first round. His 2005 draft in reality was better or worse than a typical Sherman draft. If A-Rod turns out to be a stud, that will change, but if he is only middle of the pack starting QBs I don't think its any better of worse.

In his stint in Seattle, the team went 8-8 start, 6-10, 9-7, 7-9, 10-6. In his time there, his team went .500.

I am not at all sold on that he is the man for the job. I am not sold he is not either. The man-loving of TT has got to stop though. To this point, he has fielded awful teams and has appeared to have drafting skills on par with Mike Sherman. He seems to have the same knack for the free agent bust (overpaying, underperforming) where Bubba Franks = Cletius Hunt, Charles Woodson = Joe Johnson.

He has shown an inability to judge his own talent and is has made the idiotic and fatal mistake of thinking his awful guards were skilled enough to handle the starting job. A mistake that could turn two would-be good players into career back-ups because of losing all their confidence due to excessively losing and getting beat and getting the glare from the great #4.

[MJZiggy]

There have been no signs of any of this youth stepping up and becoming players yet. Will there be at the end of the year? I doubt it.

Jennings, Hawk, Spitz, Collins, Barnett, Wells (even Colledge) all have the ability to step up and be players at any time. They have shown flashes of it and will consistently improve this season because they all work their asses off for it right now. This season. Were they "playmakers" in the preseason? I'd like to say that Jennings was, Hawk was already showing signs. I don't buy for a minute that there is no talent or immediate playmaking ability on the youth of this team. Once they get into a groove, Christl will have an open invitation to bite my ass for the "lack of playmakers" comments that he will be proven wrong about by the end of the season. Too many people are buying into that foolishness.

[Partial]

There have been no signs of any of this youth stepping up and becoming players yet. Will there be at the end of the year? I doubt it.

Jennings, Hawk, Spitz, Collins, Barnett, Wells (even Colledge) all have the ability to step up and be players at any time. They have shown flashes of it and will consistently improve this season because they all work their asses off for it right now. This season. Were they "playmakers" in the preseason? I'd like to say that Jennings was, Hawk was already showing signs. I don't buy for a minute that there is no talent or immediate playmaking ability on the youth of this team. Once they get into a groove, Christl will have an open invitation to bite my ass for the "lack of playmakers" comments that he will be proven wrong about by the end of the season. Too many people are buying into that foolishness.

I remember a young team that was loaded with "playmakers and high first round picks" They had "the next randy moss" drafted #2, Roy Williams at #6, and Mike Williams (the best touchdown target to enter the league in year!) at #10. They also drafted Joey "no confidence" Harrington #3 overall. To finalize one of the most potent offensives of young playmakers, they drafted Kevin Jones with the 30th pick in the draft. This, all in addition to using a first round pick on Jeff Backus, and I believe a second round pick on Dominc Raliola just to name a few. Going too young is an awful idea and can stunt the development of players. This is a prime example of that happening.

The Packers guys haven't shown consistent signs of being good players. Everyone has flashes occasionally. Until they can elevate there game consistently, I am not sold that a single one will be an upper-echelon player.

[RashanGary]

Partial,

I will express never dieing, man love for TT untill he's proven to be a crappy GM.

I believe in pretty much every thing he says. I believe in not doing something that will bring about a gain in the short term, but rather focusing on the big picture and doing what you believe will be the best decision looking back at the big picture.

I believe in his abilities to draft well, partially just because he's shown confidence *I know..What a reason* and partially because of the track record of the teams he's worked for.

Last years draft disappoints me a little but he's shown the ability to move on from a mistake. If this draft ends up looking as bad as last draft, I'll start to jump off his band wagon. Rodgers could make his first draft a solid B if he's a good starter like Dilfer or Brad Johnson but I'm not really banking on that. As far as this draft goes, it looks better from teh onset. Even the gaurds, who have been beat up a bit in the run game, have protected decent for he pass. They look better than any starter last year.

Anyway, I think this draft is good and I think more of his future drafts will look similar. If he has more drafts like his first and less like his second, I'll jump off his ship. As for now, I believe in what he says. I believe in focusing on the big picture. I think over time, it will work out great.

Ziggy,

I agree. I think we have 2 playmakers but I'm not going to toot Thompsons horn that loudly. I don't like to go out on limbs anymore and my love for Thompson is far enough already

[Partial]

Partial,

I will express never dieing, man love for TT untill he's proven to be a crappy GM.

I believe in pretty much every thing he says. I believe in not doing something that will bring about a gain in the short term, but rather focusing on the big picture and doing what you believe will be the best decision looking back at the big picture.

I believe in his abilities to draft well, partially just because he's shown confidence *I know..What a reason* and partially because of the track record of the teams he's worked for.

Last years draft disappoints me a little but he's shown the ability to move on from a mistake. If this draft ends up looking as bad as last draft, I'll start to jump off his band wagon. Rodgers could make his first draft a solid B if he's a good starter like Dilfer or Brad Johnson but I'm not really banking on that. As far as this draft goes, it looks better from teh onset. Even the gaurds, who have been beat up a bit in the run game, have protected decent for he pass. They look better than any starter last year.

Anyway, I think this draft is good and I think more of his future drafts will look similar. If he has more drafts like his first and less like his second, I'll jump off his ship. As for now, I believe in what he says. I believe in focusing on the big picture. I think over time, it will work out great.

Ziggy,

I agree. I think we have 2 playmakers but I'm not going to toot Thompsons horn that loudly. I don't like to go out on limbs anymore and my love for Thompson is far enough already

So, ok, his player are all good by their 4th year. They all want big salaries. What does TT do now?

[RashanGary]

We keep them. Our salary cap is set up to do just that.

We're not going to be this young forever. The only reason we are now is becuase Thompson hated pretty much everything about Shermans roster and believed it was time to part ways with EVERYONE.

[Partial]

We keep them. Our salary cap is set up to do just that.

We're not going to be this young forever. The only reason we are now is becuase Thompson hated pretty much everything about Shermans roster and believed it was time to part ways with EVERYONE.

So what is the difference between TT's roster and Sherman's? TT has close to average NFL starters drafted at the top, and a few decent players in the lower rounds.

How do you figure the cap is set-up to do that? There is no way they can keep paying high first round picks until they are competitive. It just does not work that way.

[MJZiggy]

I don't think every one of the rookie contracts comes due at the same time. I thought Hawk signed on for 6 years, not 4, so his comes due in a different year and last years' rookies come due a year sooner than this years. And they will all likely be paid on a sliding scale depending upon their performance, not to mention that some of them will be locked up during the season the year before to eat up the cap space that TT seems to be overrun with lately. I think TT has shown that he has good enough vision not to get himself stuck in the mess that Sherman always had to deal with. Besides, every GM should have the problem of having so many of his players become huge impact guys.

[Partial]

I think the way he handles Barnett will be very telling as to how far his team will go. Barnett will be one of the most overpaid players in the NFL soon.

[HarveyWallbangers]

So what is the difference between TT's roster and Sherman's? TT has close to average NFL starters drafted at the top, and a few decent players in the lower rounds.

How do you figure the cap is set-up to do that? There is no way they can keep paying high first round picks until they are competitive. It just does not work that way.

Sherman's roster was full of players acquired by Ron Wolf. That is the difference. There's little doubt we are in the mess that we are in because of the pathetic drafts we had from 2001-2004. Sherman was a big part of that.

Here's the list of players still on the team from those drafts:

Robert Ferguson, Scott Wells, Corey Williams, Aaron Kampman, Ahmad Carroll, Nick Barnett, and David Martin. We'll give him credit for Javon Walker also. He also acquired Al Harris via a draft pick. That's a pretty pathetic and small group.

Who did Sherman mostly win with? Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Chad Clifton, Mark Tauscher, Ryan Longwell, KGB, Mike Flanagan, Marco Rivera, William Henderson, Bubba Franks, Na'il Diggs, Darren Sharper. Guys that Ron Wolf acquired. When those guys got old, we didn't have any young players to replace them OR we didn't have the salary cap room to resign some of them (thanks to guys like Joe Johnson and Cletidus Hunt).

[MacCool606]

Ron Wolf also won the Mike Holmgren sweepstakes, then helped him assemble an all-star coaching staff. The GM gets the players, the Coaches build them into a team.
If we had a proven coach with a good staff I would be a bit more comfortable. No knock on MM, but there isn't much history on his side. There are a couple of coaches I like on the staff, but it seems most are first year in their position. If they all came from successful programs that would help - but how many did?

[RashanGary]

off to work.

Nice point HW.....Sherman won with Wolfs playmakers. Favre, Green, Sharper, McKeinzie ect....

Walker helped for 1 year but thta is all Sherman got in his drafts.

[Guiness]

Sorry Partial - I have to take exception with your equating TT and Sherman's drafting.

Their styles are entirely unlike each other. Sherman fell in love with players, and did everything he could to get the guy he wanted. TT stands pat, lets the draft come to him, and takes what it gives him.

You can argue that their result thus far have been similar - even if their talent evaluation skills are similar (and they might be - at the end of the day, most of the scouting staff is the same) TT's style will get him more to work with, and should yield better results.