2007 mock draft

[Tyrone Bigguns]

I'd love to see TT trade down and pick up 2 first. Something like Ginn Jr. (upgrade at CB, part time WR and special teams monster) and a pass rushinig DE or DT. Cole and jenkins are best served as backups.

There is no need to draft and rb that early. History proves you can find very good/great backs in later rounds.

but those rb's you pick in later rounds have a higher chance of not panning out. the higher you take a RB the better the chance is that they will be the real deal. we crunched a bunch of numbers on this at one time. theres a huge difference between the number of 1st round RB's that make it, and and the % of later round RB's that make it

Later rounds is late first or 2nd and 3rd. And, for every pick inside the top 12 who has been a back, it is 50/50 chance they will be a bust or not live up to the hype.

Looking at the draft: Benson, thomas Jones (took him years to be good), DAYNE, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Ki-jana carter, hearst (blew out a knee), Blair thomas, tim worley, Sammie Smith, BRENT FULLWOOD, Michael haddix, Darrin Nelson, Walter Abercrombie.

It goes on and on.

And, if the line isn't good, what point is there in a drafting a rb high?

Consider that we could get a Portis, Gore, Barber, Jones, Larry Johnson (27th), Westbrook, Jordan, Barlow, Rudi Johnson, Henry, Droughns, Gary, Ahman Green, Pittman, Tiki, Dillon, Duce, Stephen Davis, etc. in round 2-4.

[red]

but how many dozens of other rb's were taken in that area that didn't make it

the bust chance goes down the higher up you take one. or to put it a better way. you're chances of finding a "special" RB go up the higher you draft one

as for petersons performance dropping off. yes last year, when he was hurt all season

this season he has 90 carries for 515 yards and 4 td's in 3 games. he's projected to gain over 2000, just on the ground

[oregonpackfan]

I agree Packnut, I think Peterson could be the next Ki-jonna Carter. I love Kenny Irons though.

Ballhawk,

I think Adrian Peterson or Kenny Irons would be a solid #1 pick.

Because I have seen more of Peterson, I would have to go with him. In the recent Oregon-Oklahoma game, the Ducks keyed their defense around him. For the first three quarters they contained Peterson relatively well.

In the fourth quarter, however, Peterson exploded for over 140 yards giving him a total of 214 yards for the game!

I also like the point is that Peterson is known for getting stronger as the game progresses. Almost 2/3 of the yards he has gained come in the second half. That is a very strong attribute for any running back to have.

Because of this trait, Sooners fans call him "AD" for "All Day." The nickname represents the belief that he can run All Day long.

OPF

[gbpackfan]

Adrian Peterson is ONE HELL OF A RUNNING BACK! If we get a chance to get him, we have to.

Calvin Johnson could be something special.

I would not be against trading down and getting 5 picks in the first three rounds.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

but how many dozens of other rb's were taken in that area that didn't make it

the bust chance goes down the higher up you take one

as for petersons performance dropping off. yes last year, when he was hurt all season

this season he has 90 carries for 515 yards and 4 td's in 3 games. he's projected to gain over 2000, just on the ground

That isn't the point. In order for that argument to be made you would have to figure out the percentages of ALL players as in regards to top ten picks. It is OBVIOUS that the lower you pick the less chance of greatness. But, it is much less in rbs than other positions.

It is a well established rule in the NFL that you can find backs later in the draft. Qbs, Defensive ends, tackles, cbs are much harder to find.

Don't believe me...go look at the past 5 or so drafts. Until the 2005 draft it had been like 4/5 years since anybody took a rb in the top ten. Last year it was Bush. The three backs drafted later are all playing significant minutes.

More importantly, with our new style of blocking, we need the right type of back. And, based upon Denver and Atlanta, lower than 3.

[Partial]

I'd love to see TT trade down and pick up 2 first. Something like Ginn Jr. (upgrade at CB, part time WR and special teams monster) and a pass rushinig DE or DT. Cole and jenkins are best served as backups.

There is no need to draft and rb that early. History proves you can find very good/great backs in later rounds.

but those rb's you pick in later rounds have a higher chance of not panning out. the higher you take a RB the better the chance is that they will be the real deal. we crunched a bunch of numbers on this at one time. theres a huge difference between the number of 1st round RB's that make it, and and the % of later round RB's that make it

Later rounds is late first or 2nd and 3rd. And, for every pick inside the top 12 who has been a back, it is 50/50 chance they will be a bust or not live up to the hype.

Looking at the draft: Benson, thomas Jones (took him years to be good), DAYNE, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Ki-jana carter, hearst (blew out a knee), Blair thomas, tim worley, Sammie Smith, BRENT FULLWOOD, Michael haddix, Darrin Nelson, Walter Abercrombie.

It goes on and on.

And, if the line isn't good, what point is there in a drafting a rb high?

Consider that we could get a Portis, Gore, Barber, Jones, Larry Johnson (27th), Westbrook, Jordan, Barlow, Rudi Johnson, Henry, Droughns, Gary, Ahman Green, Pittman, Tiki, Dillon, Duce, Stephen Davis, etc. in round 2-4.

I'd rather have a Barry Sanders or a LaDanian Thomlinson over any of those and 5 first round picks, though.

[Bretsky]

I think an argument could be made that how many players are drafted at each position year to year is directly related to the talent level at that position; I don't think certain positions get overvalued and thus end up consistently thrown too high into round one.

You put grades on players; if there is suppose to be an overload of TE's one year they get drafted high. Ditto for the other positions.

I recall 2001 as a WR heavy year. That was the year we drafted the Fraud over Chambers. There were about nine WR's drafted in the first two rounds. Not typical, but it was a strong year for WR's.
This year more TE's were drafted at the top than normal.

If there are five RB's with a first round grade next year then they'll get drafted high.

When I hear you don't need to draft a RB high I think of the Denver mentality. But keep in mind they've had a successful OL for many many years now. Most teams do not have that luxury. We certainly do not.

I'm going off my unreliable memory here, but one valid thing to consider is how many of the starting HB's in the NFL are first round picks now. In looking at them it appears most of the Stud's are first round picks. On a sidenote I have no recollection where some of the missing backs like Rudi Johnson, Tike Barber, and Warrich Dunn were picked. I want to say the latter two were top 2 rounds, but I'm not sure.


Larry Johnson
Shawn Alexander
LaDanion Tomlinson
Stephen Jackson
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Willis McGahee
Lawrence Moroney
Corey Dillon
Ronnie Brown
Jamal Lewis
Joseph Addai
Reggie Bush
Duece McCalister
Cadillac Williams

And that's nearly half the starting halfbacks in the NFL

I'd have no problem if TT drafted a stud RB in round one as long as he was the best player on the board at the time of selection.


B

[Harlan Huckleby]

I like Hart from Michigan. He runs hard, low to ground, very shifty.

[Partial]

I think an argument could be made that how many players are drafted at each position year to year is directly related to the talent level at that position; I don't think certain positions get overvalued and thus end up consistently thrown too high into round one.

You put grades on players; if there is suppose to be an overload of TE's one year they get drafted high. Ditto for the other positions.

I recall 2001 as a WR heavy year. That was the year we drafted the Fraud over Chambers. There were about nine WR's drafted in the first two rounds. Not typical, but it was a strong year for WR's.
This year more TE's were drafted at the top than normal.

If there are five RB's with a first round grade next year then they'll get drafted high.

When I hear you don't need to draft a RB high I think of the Denver mentality. But keep in mind they've had a successful OL for many many years now. Most teams do not have that luxury. We certainly do not.

I'm going off my unreliable memory here, but one valid thing to consider is how many of the starting HB's in the NFL are first round picks now. In looking at them it appears most of the Stud's are first round picks. On a sidenote I have no recollection where some of the missing backs like Rudi Johnson, Tike Barber, and Warrich Dunn were picked. I want to say the latter two were top 2 rounds, but I'm not sure.


Larry Johnson
Shawn Alexander
LaDanion Tomlinson
Stephen Jackson
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Willis McGahee
Lawrence Moroney
Corey Dillon
Ronnie Brown
Jamal Lewis
Joseph Addai
Reggie Bush
Duece McCalister
Cadillac Williams

And that's nearly half the starting halfbacks in the NFL

I'd have no problem if TT drafted a stud RB in round one as long as he was the best player on the board at the time of selection.


B

What if the best player on the board is a weak-side linebacker?

[Joemailman]

2007 NFL Mock Draft
By: Robert Davis | Updated: 9/12

49ers - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Frank Gore has some talent, but Peterson is special.

Jets - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
The Jets probably will not pick this high, and could be tempted for Quinn despite taking Clemens in the second last year.

Bills - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
The Bills will be in the hunt for the #1 overall pick, and a QB will be high on their board.

Saints - Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn St.
Their never ending search for a stud linebacker has ended.

Packers - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
With the trade of Javon Walker, the Pack lack a playmaker at WR.

Browns - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
A LT is needed, and found.

Titans - Jared Gaither, OT, Maryland
Just a sophomore, but has amazing potential.

Raiders - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
More bodies are needed on defense, and Adams is the best defender on the board.

Texans - Laron Landry, S, LSU
A playmaker at safety like Landry is a big need for the Texans.

Lions - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Still in search of a QB to lead the team, the Lions again use a high pick on a QB.

Rams - Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
Finding a player opposite Leonard Little is still a priority.

Cardinals - Justin Blalock, OL, Texas
The OL must be addressed, and Blalock’s versatility may land him here.

Chiefs - Frank Okam, DT, Texas
Tempted to go for a WR, the Chiefs choose to beef up at DT.

Vikings - Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
Willis would bring a lot of talent and versatility to the LB corp.

Ravens - Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
They struck gold with one former Cane safety, so they go back to the well again.

Falcons - Sam Baker, OL, USC
Mike Vick needs more protection up front.

Chargers - Ted Ginn, Jr, WR, Ohio St.
If he continues to develop at WR, he’ll be long gone at this point.

Eagles - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
The top corner on the board at the moment heads to Philly.

Redskins - Brandon Mebane, DT, Cal
The Skins still need to upgrade the DT spot.

Bears - Fred Davis, TE, USC
Many thought the Bears would go TE last year, but this year they can’t pass on the upside of Davis.

Bucs - Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
An OL upgrade still needs to take place.

Jaguars - Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
Maurice Drew is a nice change of pace back, but he’s not a full time back. If Taylor needs a replacement, the Jags would be ecstatic to see Lynch on the board.

Giants - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
Arguably the top senior corner in the draft, Hall could be the first CB selected in April.

Dolphins - Michael Griffin, S, Texas
This is shaping up to be a very talented safety class, and the Phins grab the best one available to help their secondary.

Cowboys - Kyle Young, C, Fresno St.
Has the talent to play at guard or center.

Patriots - LaMarr Woodley, LB, Michigan
Woodley could provide a lot of what they lost with Willie McGinest leaving for Cleveland.

Bengals - Zach Miller, TE, Arizona St.
A receiver like Miller over the middle would help open up things even more for the guys on the outside.

Broncos - Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
A lot of moves have been made along the Dline over the past couple years, but a young stud is still needed.

Colts - Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St.
The Colts hope the constant search for a standout corner ends here.

Panthers - Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio St.
Tough defensive tackle would help clog the run up the middle right away.

Steelers - Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
His season is done after a broken leg, but he should be fine by draft time. His power would be a perfect fit in the offense.

Seahawks - Jeff Samardzija, WR, Notre Dame
Darrell Jackson and Nate Burleson are nice, but Samardzija is a huge target that would complete the WR group.



If Clifton continues to struggle, Packers would take Joe Thomas if available.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Why is everyone talking about Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, etc., when were going to pick in the 20's

[b bulldog]

Calvin Johnson, Adrian peterson or Joe Thomas. I think that the chances of Bush slipping into the second round or the late first round are high because of the broken leg he has and if we could snag Johnson and Bush to play along side Rogers,Driver,jennings and our young Oline, the O should be on it's way.

[red]

What if the best player on the board is a weak-side linebacker?

its an interesting question. what if Paul Posluszny is staring us right in the face. do we take him and have a freakish group of LBers and switch to the 3-4. Posluszny, hawk, barnett and hodge would be an amazing group

[BallHawk]

Bretksy, Rudi Johnson was drafted in the 4th round, (5th pick) Tiki Barber was 2nd round, (6th pick) and Warrick Dunn was 12th overall.

Unless there is there is a RB that is once in a decade, and a really special talent, I think drafting that high is foolish. A back is made by his O-line. I do not consider any back in this year's draft, "unusually talented," I don't even consider A.P. the top RB.

And Yes, Adrian Peterson might be All day, but it doesn't work that way in the NFL. You can't break a 60 TD yard run, kickoff, get the D to force a 3 and out, and then run for another 60 yard TD. In the NFL the defense will get tougher as the game goes on. If you get shut down early, you won't magically go 150 yards+ in the 4th quarter.

I agree with Harlan, that Hart is an intriguing pick, and I wouldn't mind picking him up, I don't know where he would be available, though. If I had a pick in this draft for a RB, I'd go with Irons.

[justanotherpackfan]

You have to build your team through the line. Joe Thomas would be a nice fit with his mobility and athleticism.