Greg Jennings

[the_idle_threat]

It still remains unlikely that Jennings will get 60 catches and 1000 yards, simply because so few rookies do.

I'm sorry Patler, but you have traded in your trademark rationality for sheer stubbornness here. I'm disappointed that you would make a statement like the one above, which so completely lacks critical thought. Who cares about the Jennings' specific circumstances, right? He's a rookie, and that seems to be all you need to know.

Did you read my 5-point reasoning above? For that matter, let me add a sixth reason why Jennings has a good chance of getting 1000 yards this season: The pass interference rules that have been enforced more often than not over the past couple of seasons have made it even easier than before for WRs to pile up yardage. 1000 yards is not All-Pro anymore ... 24 guys reached that mark in 2004 (including 3 guys on the same team) and 20 guys did it last year. Jennings got mugged on a non-call last night, but in general, it's a hands-off league more so than ever. He should benefit from the rules as much as any other player.

[mission]

It still remains unlikely that Jennings will get 60 catches and 1000 yards, simply because so few rookies do.

I'm sorry Patler, but you have traded in your trademark rationality for sheer stubbornness here. I'm disappointed that you would make a statement like the one above, which so completely lacks critical thought. Who cares about the Jennings' specific circumstances, right? He's a rookie, and that seems to be all you need to know.

Did you read my 5-point reasoning above? For that matter, let me add a sixth reason why Jennings has a good chance of getting 1000 yards this season: The pass interference rules that have been enforced more often than not over the past couple of seasons have made it even easier than before for WRs to pile up yardage. 1000 yards is not All-Pro anymore ... 24 guys reached that mark in 2004 (including 3 guys on the same team) and 20 guys did it last year. Jennings got mugged on a non-call last night, but in general, it's a hands-off league more so than ever. He should benefit from the rules as much as any other player.

and BTW: did you see his moves to get off the line on that play? that's something that a lot of vets dont even have. he has that shake and bake in his hips that is simply immeasurable.

im not even sure chuck norris could do that.

[Guiness]

I haven't the slightest clue where that comment is coming from. Who said they wouldn't transfer to the field? But those alone are not enough for a great season, because external factors over which the player has absolutely no control also enter into the final result. ASk Javon Walker last year.

I know what you're trying to say Patty, but I wish you wouldn't bring JW into this conversation, except to mention that he's doing a decent job of making up forget about him. What happened to JW last year was a brutal injury, and I don't even want to think of Jennings this way.

FWIW I agree that it's unlikely GJ will see 60 catches/1000yds. He's been playing great up until now, but I think a couple of factors will prevent him from hitting those milestones.

The first is what you mentioned - the 'rookie wall' - it is a big deal, and pretty tough on the system I would think. I would think the coaching staff would be watching rookies for signs of overtraining, and cutting back their reps, both in practice and games, if necessary to preserver their health. I know I played a year of junior hockey, and lost ~25lbs over the course of the year. I literaly couldn't eat enough.

The second is the emergence of KRob - if he continues to play as he is, and stays out of jail, Favre will spread the ball around to all three guys. This would be very good for the team - I'd love to see all three of those guys over 700 yards.

OTOH what might push the WR numbers up a bit is if the TE's continue to play the way they are. They won't get many looks outside of checkdown passes if this continues. Less balls for them means more for the WRs.

[Patler]

It still remains unlikely that Jennings will get 60 catches and 1000 yards, simply because so few rookies do.

I'm sorry Patler, but you have traded in your trademark rationality for sheer stubbornness here. I'm disappointed that you would make a statement like the one above, which so completely lacks critical thought. Who cares about the Jennings' specific circumstances, right? He's a rookie, and that seems to be all you need to know.

Did you read my 5-point reasoning above? For that matter, let me add a sixth reason why Jennings has a good chance of getting 1000 yards this season: The pass interference rules that have been enforced more often than not over the past couple of seasons have made it even easier than before for WRs to pile up yardage. 1000 yards is not All-Pro anymore ... 24 guys reached that mark in 2004 (including 3 guys on the same team) and 20 guys did it last year. Jennings got mugged on a non-call last night, but in general, it's a hands-off league more so than ever. He should benefit from the rules as much as any other player.

You guys continue to take isolated statements and interpret an overall attitude that is NOT what I have said. I not only agree with your points in Jennings favor, I said pretty much the same thing myself. I quote:

"If Walker stayed in GB, Jennings would not have the same opportunity he has right now. So far, things are aligning for Jennings to have a very good rookie season. BUT, through no fault of his, that can change. If he stays healthy, if Favre stays healthy, if the running game stays mediocre, and if the Packers are behind a lot, he very well might make 60/1000. But things can and do change, which is why rookies don't typically reach those numbers."

I agree with you, but I also see the flip side. Right now, Jennings is in a prime position to perform. But, what if instead of a stinger, Favre had a broken collar bone and would be out the next 8 or 10 games? Would your outlook for Jennings numbers for the season change at all? What if Jennings turns an ankle and misses just 2 games? 1000 yarsd becomes a lot tougher. What if (a BIG IF, here) the running game takes off, and all of a sudden Favre is only throwing 25-30 passes a game? Jennings would have far fewer opportunities. What if the run defense collapses, and opponents routinely knock of 7-8 minute drives so the Packers have fewer oppoertunities with the ball?

For all of these reasons, I don't assume that Driver will get a 1000 yards this year. Why should I assume that Jennings will? Just too many outside factors.

[Patler]

Let me ask a few more questions:

With 376 TDs in his last 14 seasons, averaging 27 a season, Did you assume Favre would get more than 20 last year? To be honest, I sort of did.

When he had 15 after 7 games and was at or near the league leaders, did it seem 25-30 was a likely total, and 20 a "cinch" for the season? Again, to be honest, I did, because I figured they would pass up a storm trailing game after game.

Did you ever in your wildest dreams expect Favre to go 9 games and throw for only 5 TDs, or throw for just 1 in his last 5 games after having routine strings of 20+ games in a row with TD passes? He would end one long string and immediately start another. With 19 Tds after 11 games, did you ever think it would be a struggle for him to get 20 for the season in 2005? As it was it took him to the end of the 3rd qtr. in the last game of the year, against Seattle who was playing for nothing before Favre got #20.

Things happen. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Thats why significant accomplishments, like 1000 yards for a receiver, are uncommon. Very good players do not always achieve them.

Do I think Jennings CAN do it-Yes. Do I EXPECT him to do it? - No. As I said, I don't EXPECT Driver to do it either, and he has proven that he can.

[Packers4Ever]

Re: Greg Jennings

Greg Jennings finished tonight's game with 5 catches for 86 yards. That gives him 15 catches for 259 yards after 4 games. At this pace, he would have 60 catches for 1036 yards for the season.

People basically said I was crazy when I opined that Jennings had a very good shot at a 1000-yard rookie season. Things are looking pretty good now.

Yes, I started this thread to pat myself on the back. But also, Jennings' play is a small positive we can look to after a game full of negatives.

.................................................. .......
I didn't know, IDT that you had made this prediction for Greg Jennings but looks like you may hit it on the buzzer or better! Congrats !! The first time I saw him making some pretty fantastic catches I couldn't believe he was a rookie WR, but man, he is good and I think can only get better. He's going to be fun to watch.
.................................................. ......

[Patler]

Just to be clear. I have said in the past that 50 receptions, maybe even 60 is a more reachable target for Jennings than 1000 receiving yards. Generally, there are about twice as many receivers with 50 or more catches than there are with 1000 or more yards. Typically, to get 1000 yards you have to have at least about 70 catches.

To discuss his positives. I've tried to watch to see why he picks up yards after a catch as well as he does.. He's not exceptionally fast, nor exceptionally shifty. What I first noticed on his TD last week, and watched for last night is this: He makes a cut or change in direction on his first step after he hits the ground. Many receivers take a step or two before they can make another change in direction. When he jumps to catch a ball, he seems to do it by twisting his body as he comes down so he can plant one foot and go in an unexpected direction with his first stride running. When he catches it on the ground, his first stride as he secures the ball is a change in direction. A defender right on top of him often doesn't get the clean shot at a tackle that he thinks he will get.

Now I'm not saying he is another Sharpe, he has to prove that, but Sharpe did the same thing, but not usually jumping. He could catch a square out and cut simultaneously. Of course, he would occassionally drop an easy one because of the quick move. He could alos simply run over most cornerbacks and many of the safeties.

[the_idle_threat]

Let me ask a few more questions:

With 376 TDs in his last 14 seasons, averaging 27 a season, Did you assume Favre would get more than 20 last year? To be honest, I sort of did.

When he had 15 after 7 games and was at or near the league leaders, did it seem 25-30 was a likely total, and 20 a "cinch" for the season? Again, to be honest, I did, because I figured they would pass up a storm trailing game after game.

Did you ever in your wildest dreams expect Favre to go 9 games and throw for only 5 TDs, or throw for just 1 in his last 5 games after having routine strings of 20+ games in a row with TD passes? He would end one long string and immediately start another. With 19 Tds after 11 games, did you ever think it would be a struggle for him to get 20 for the season in 2005? As it was it took him to the end of the 3rd qtr. in the last game of the year, against Seattle who was playing for nothing before Favre got #20.

Things happen. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Thats why significant accomplishments, like 1000 yards for a receiver, are uncommon. Very good players do not always achieve them.

Do I think Jennings CAN do it-Yes. Do I EXPECT him to do it? - No. As I said, I don't EXPECT Driver to do it either, and he has proven that he can.

Maybe that's our issue here, my friend. If you read my posts, you will see I'm not assuming nor expecting anything, nor am I asking you to assume or expect anything. I'm just saying Jennings has a good shot. A good shot means that it might happen, but then again it might not. Sounds like we are in agreement after all. So will you stop crapping in my cornflakes already?

[Patler]

Sounds like we are in agreement after all. So will you stop crapping in my cornflakes already?

Absolutely not. You leave those cornflakes out there, and they are a fair target!

Actually, I think you and I, (or maybe someone else) reached this conclusion about Jennings once before.

[the_idle_threat]

Sounds like we are in agreement after all. So will you stop crapping in my cornflakes already?

Absolutely not. You leave those cornflakes out there, and they are a fair target!

Actually, I think you and I, (or maybe someone else) reached this conclusion about Jennings once before.

Probably was us. I said at the beginning of the season (before the Bear game) that I thought Jennings had a great chance to be a 1000-yard rookie receiver, so this all has been hashed out before. Things have developed for Jennings just about as I expected so far, so I threw this thread out there.

I acknowledge that circumstances can change, however, so it remains to be seen whether Jennings can keep it up. It's a long season, as I have said to the "Bears are gonna go to the Super Bowl" folks.

[Guiness]

Interesting observation Patler re: cut on first step. Not something I noticed. You see a lot of guys try and cut as they're catching the ball, and get drops because they fail to haul it in before making the move. I'll have to get a look at some of the catches where he get decent YAC and watch for that.

One thing I have noticed though, that has helped him at least twice - great downfield blocking by that consumate pro, DD. On his 5yd catch and run for a TD, Driver threw a beautiful block on Bly a full 30+ yards beyond the line of scrimage. That's what I call playing until the whistle!

[red]

jennings looks like he's become bretts new go-to-guy. driver has been dropping some big passes lately, and jennings seems to be stepping up more

[red]

he came into a situation where a starting spot was wide open, with a disappointing veteran (Ferguson) penciled into it.

Speaking of Fergie, what a nightmarish season he is having. After not doing ANYTHING the first three games, now he may have broken his foot..And frankly, with the emergence of K-Rob, I really don't think it'll really make a difference, because he wasn't making any type of an impact anyways (offensively at least. He has made some plays on ST).

the problem is, we might have seen the last of k-rob for awhile. his probation hearing is this week i think

wasn't it great to see a wr knock down not one, but 2 bad passes out of the cb's hands. unlike fergy who would try to help the cb catch the ball. it was just really nice to see a wr turn into a db for a change when he had to

[Guiness]

Ya, those plays by Krob were pretty nice. Showed good presence of mind.

I just had a flashback of Fergy getting his pocket picked last year - can't remember which game it was, but he caught the ball, I think he was holding it against his hip. The DB came up, stripped it from him and took off running.

[HarveyWallbangers]

jennings looks like he's become bretts new go-to-guy. driver has been dropping some big passes lately, and jennings seems to be stepping up more

Nah, Driver dropped a couple of balls, but he's still #1 by a longshot. Even last night, Driver had more "looks" than Jennings. For the year, Driver has 19 more "looks" than Jennings.