Fox sports video clips on Ngata

[Harlan Huckleby]

These guys have all had time to prove themselves. I think only a handful have proven to be less than good players.


1998
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State
3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State
4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan
5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State
6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska
7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State
8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina
9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL)

1999

1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon
4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL)
5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas
6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State
7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia
8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State
9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC
10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona


2000

1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State
2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State
3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama
4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State
5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee
6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State
7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State
9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico
10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida


2001
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech
2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas
3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida
4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri
5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian
6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia
7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California
8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State
10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State

2002
1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State
2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina
3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon
4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas
5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas
6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina
7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)
8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma
9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee
10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State

[digitaldean]

Speed

I saw Oregon play Arizona on TBS this past fall. What I saw of Ngata was impressive. His best play was on a running play where he blocked the running lane. He then shed his blocker, chased the back in the backfield and ran him down from behind.

He has size, he has speed. Yeah, the weight issue could be a problem. But I would be comfortable with him getting picked (only if we traded down in the top 10).

We would have to get 2 extra picks besides swapping first rnd picks.

If we didn't trade down, Williams (probably will be gone), Hawk or Vernon Davis would be great.

[K-town]

These guys have all had time to prove themselves. I think only a handful have proven to be less than good players.


1998
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State BIGGEST BUST
3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State One or two good years
4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan Hey, we want this guy
5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State BUST
6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska Solid, but never an All-Pro
7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State Nice helmet toss
8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina Won't make you forget Charles Haley
9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida A very good back; would have been great except for injuries
10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) Solid

1999

1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky BUST
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse Legitimate star
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon Double D BUST
4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL) All-Pro
5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas Got two coaches fired
6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State All-Pro
7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia Overrated
8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State Two good seasons, now a journeyman
9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC Never lived up to the rep
10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona Solid for a while


2000

1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State BUST
2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State We want this guy, part 2
3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama Value Pick
4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State Very high pick for a KR
5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee Only offense for the Super Bowl CHamp Ravens
6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State Good player for two teams
7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia Finally blossomed on his 3rd team
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State Good player for two teams
9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico Paris Hilton! Man, I can't resist linking him to her
10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida Not even a good number 2 WR


2001
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech WHO? Oh, you mean Ron Mexico
2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas Denny Green benched him
3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida Spot duty contributor
4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri BUST
5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian All-world
6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia Best DT in football
7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California BUST
8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan BUST
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State May still develop
10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State BUST

2002
1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State Jury's still out
2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina All-world
3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon BUST
4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas BUST
5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas BUST
6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina BUST
7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL) Solid
8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma All-Pro
9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee All-Pro
10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State Pro-Bowl?

By my count, more than a handful - approaching 50%

[Partial]

First of all, it takes 5 years to tell minimum.



Many of those busts are average starters. They aren't busts, they just aren't booms. Quinton Jammar starts on one of the best defenses in the league, Sims is labeled as pretty good as I recall

[Harlan Huckleby]

By my count, more than a handful - approaching 50%

nah. Most of the them are starters.

Harrington is not a bust. Courtney Brown is still starting somewhere.

[K-town]

By my count, more than a handful - approaching 50%

nah. Most of the them are starters.

Harrington is not a bust. Courtney Brown is still starting somewhere.

If Joey Harrington were in Green and Gold, he would rival Tony Mandarich as the biggest bust in our history. Seriously, how can you say Harrington isn't one of the worst starting QBs in the league? That's not a bust? Would you want the number 5 pick in the 2006 draft to no longer be a Packer or a starter on any team in four years?
Courtney Brown is a rotation guy for Denver. Gerald Warren and Brown were high draft picks for Cleveland who were marginal starters at best. The change of scenery helped when they went to Denver. Again, though, I consider them to be disappointments or even "busts" because they failed to impact their teams in a dynamic manner. KGB and Aaron Kampman were/are better players than either Warren or Brown, and they're not even rated in the top half of the league at their positions. When you invest a top five pick on a player that doesn't help your team, and he is let go/traded/allowed to bolt in free agency, etc., that to me is a bust.
Just my opinion.

[Partial]

Harrington will be good in a few years. He's got the tools lacks the confidence.

But, I guess he's not a bust if you never expected him to be good

[MJZiggy]

I'll be interested to see how he does with the Fins.

[RashanGary]

Looked like about a 33% bust rate.

That is not too bad. This year is a better than average top 9 IMO. Ngata is one of my favorite players in this whole draft. I know he's got a few issues but if he can stay healthy he could rival Bush/Williams as the best player in this draft.

Physically he's just amazing.

[RashanGary]

5 out of 25 of the 4, 5 and 6 players were busts. That is only a 20% bust rate.

I don't think as many of the 4 - 6 players are HOFers as the 1-3 but it looks like they have pretty low bust rates.

[RashanGary]

The 1-3 had a 20% bust rate
The 4-6 had a 20% bust rate

It's the 7-10 that is bringing the bust rate way up.

[Harlan Huckleby]

A lot of those guys labeled as "busts" are in the NFL.

Do the same experiment with later rounds. I think you'll see how strongly draft position correlates with success. Late round guys are lucky to be in NFL after 3 years.

So, it's true that a high draft pick may be a bust. But they are still MUCH more valuable than later picks. It's relative.

[RashanGary]

Right on HH...

The top 10 is the place to be if you want good players. The top 5 is even better.

I would be very surprised if whoever the Packers picks is a bust. I think Thompson has what it takes to pick the strongest player at that position.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Sorry, but a guy picked in the top 10 is a bust if he's only an average starter.

[HarveyWallbangers]

1998
1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State - BUST
3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State - BUST
4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan
5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State - BUST
6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska
7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State
8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina
9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) - BUST (borderline)

1999

1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky - BUST
2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon - BUST
4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL)
5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas
6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State
7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia
8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State - BUST (borderline)
9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC - BUST
10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona


2000

1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State - BUST
2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State
3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama
4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State
5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee
6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State
7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia - BUST (borderline, 1 good season out of 6)
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State
9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico
10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida - BUST


2001
1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech
2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas
3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida - BUST
4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri
5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian
6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia
7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California
8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan - BUST
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State
10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State - BUST

2002
1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State
2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina
3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon - BUST
4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas - BUST
5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas - BUST
6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina - BUST
7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)
8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma
9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee
10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State

18 of 50 - 36% in my book