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What if... the Packers had more success in the draft
Posted: Oct. 31, 2006
Cliff Christl
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With Brett Favre playing well and within himself, and Ahman Green running more and more like the Ahman Green of old, it's tempting to play the what-if game.
What if the Packers had been able to keep Javon Walker happy and hadn't traded him during the off-season? Would they be as good as they were in 2004 before he got hurt and they were reigning division champs?
Maybe the Packers still wouldn't be as good as Chicago, but that's not a far-fetched question. Walker would make this offense all the more potent. But, then again, if the Packers hadn't traded Walker, they might not have some of the same draft picks and maybe the offensive line wouldn't be where it is in its development. Even if they'd be better off with Walker that raises too many other what-ifs.
So let the game move on.
What if the Packers hadn't squandered an inordinate number of draft picks from 2001 to 2004 and had more three- to six-year veterans, players who should be nearing or at the top of their games, filling key roles?
Those four drafts yielded just five players who are contributing: tight end David Martin (2001), defensive end Aaron Kampman ('02), linebacker Nick Barnett ('03), defensive tackle Corey Williams ('04) and center Scott Wells ('04). Kampman and Barnett are probably playing as well as anybody on defense. But the Packers would be better off if they were in a supporting role, not a lead role.
So where did they miss out?
It would seem rather obvious that the first place to look would be the 2004 draft, Mike Sherman's disaster; the draft that yielded Ahmad Carroll in the first round; and Joey Thomas, Donnell Washington and B.J. Sander in the third round.
But here's why it's best to be wary of off-the-cuff criticisms. No question, it was a terrible draft. But the Packers didn't miss out on a lot of good players, either, at least not in the neighborhood where they drafted.
The two players chosen directly after Carroll in the first round were running back Chris Perry and linebacker Jason Babin, and neither one is a starter or probably any more advanced than Carroll at this point.
Carolina drafted another cornerback Chris Gamble next. Gamble is a solid starter. He would have been a better choice than Carroll, but he has had his ups and downs, as well, and probably is no better than either of the Packers' starting cornerbacks.
There were three more players taken over the final four picks who are starting for other teams, but, again, probably aren't any better than what the Packers have starting at those positions. Those players are wide receiver Michael Jenkins with Atlanta, running back Kevin Jones with Detroit and tight end Ben Watson with New England. The one exception might be Watson, who could be a standout in the making.
The other choice at the end of the round was wide receiver Rashaun Woods by San Francisco, and he's no longer in the league.
Eleven of the first 14 picks in the second round also are starters this season. And the Packers could use some of them.
Chris Snee appears to be emerging as a Pro Bowl guard for the New York Giants and would provide the Packers with more experience and strength at that position. Jacksonville's Daryl Smith probably would be a starter for them at strong-side linebacker. If the Packers had drafted running back Julius Jones before Dallas, they probably would have said good-bye to Green by now. And safety Bob Sanders, taken 19 spots after Carroll by Indianapolis, would be a substantial upgrade over Marquand Manuel. Center Jake Grove, drafted by Oakland with the 13th pick of the second round, is another solid starter, but in the same class as Wells.
Of the final 17 players drafted in the second round, the one who probably would fill a need for the Packers better than any other would be San Francisco cornerback Shawntae Spencer. And he'd be a nickel back.
Of the 33 draft picks in the third round that year, 16 have been starters. But other than Arizona defensive tackle Darnell Dockett, a Cullen Jenkins type; Washington's productive H-back Chris Cooley, who would be a nice fit in Coach Mike McCarthy's multiple tight end offense; and Carolina tackle Travelle Wharton, who'd be a solid backup to Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, the Packers wouldn't have had much of a need for any of them.
While the Packers blew all three of their third-round picks, they weren't the only ones making mistakes. In all, 12 of the 33 choices are either out of the league or have been waived by their original teams.
The steal of that draft was defensive end Jared Allen, taken by Kansas City with the 30th choice of the fourth round. He's already close to being a top 10 player at that position. The Packers liked him that year, had him ranked about where he was drafted, but Sherman traded away two fourth-round choices.
Two other fourth-round picks, linebacker Shaun Phillips of San Diego and cornerback Nathan Vasher of Chicago, would help the current Packers as situational players, if not starters.
In a nutshell, if the Packers had taken someone like Snee instead of Carroll; and say a Cooley and Allen as two of their third-round picks, they'd be a better team. But a threat to win the Super Bowl? Probably not.
It just wasn't that good a draft after the top 20 picks or so.
But, now, let's look at 2001.
That was the year the Packers owned the 10th choice and selected defensive end Jamal Reynolds, then followed that by taking wide receiver Robert Ferguson in the second round, and defensive back Bhawoh Jue and linebacker Torrence Marshall in the third round.
It was former general manager Ron Wolf's last draft. And there has been considerable debate about whether he was at fault or Sherman, his appointed successor, for the first two picks. Sherman had considerable influence. But it was still Wolf's call and he also liked the players who were taken.
In the bigger picture, it's inconsequential. Say Wolf had insisted on taking linebacker Dan Morgan over Reynolds, which he later said would have been his preference. And say he had chosen Wisconsin receiver Chris Chambers over Ferguson.
Morgan is a good player, but he has never played an entire season. When this season ends, he will have missed 40 of 96 games with injuries. That means if the Packers had drafted him, they would have had to line up with their backup middle linebacker in better than 40% of the games the last six seasons.
They're better off with Barnett,
Chambers is a better receiver than Ferguson, but not a difference-maker.
Still, that was a draft where the Packers should have cashed it in big. That was a draft where they had a chance to land players who might have been the foundation for several more Super Bowl runs.
Three slots after the Packers took Reynolds, Jacksonville landed defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, who also had ranked high on the Packers' board. He's one of the top five defensive tackles in the game, a complete player and a three-time Pro Bowl choice in his first five years.
In the second round, three choices after Ferguson went, Carolina drafted defensive tackle Kris Jenkins. Later in the second round, Detroit picked defensive tackle Shaun Rogers.
Jenkins had emerged as perhaps the best defensive tackle in the game before injuries cut short his last two seasons. He's back and maybe not as disruptive as he was, but he's getting close to being a top five defensive tackle again. Rogers might have been playing better than any defensive tackle in the NFC when he was recently suspended for violation of the league's drug policy.
Back in 2001, the Packers' projected starters at defensive tackle were Santana Dotson, 32 and coming off a serious quadriceps injury; and Russell Maryland, a 32-year old stopgap.
They had a need there and it was the strongest position of the draft. Pittsburgh's Casey Hampton, one of the game's premier nose tackles, was another player available. He was taken nine picks after Reynolds.
Had the Packers allowed the strength of the draft to dictate their picks, never a bad approach, they could have had Stroud and Jenkins, or Stroud and Rogers, in the first two rounds. There also was a pretty good receiver sitting there in the third round when the Packers chose Jue and Marshall with back-to-back picks. Carolina took Steve Smith, one of the most explosive players in the game, two choices later.
Put Stroud and Jenkins or Stroud and Rogers in the middle of the Packers' lineup and nobody in the league might have a better defense, the Bears included. Give the Packers Smith, as well, and there's a good chance they'd be the team to beat heading into Super Bowl XLI.
Posted: Oct. 31, 2006
Cliff Christl
With Brett Favre playing well and within himself, and Ahman Green running more and more like the Ahman Green of old, it's tempting to play the what-if game.
What if the Packers had been able to keep Javon Walker happy and hadn't traded him during the off-season? Would they be as good as they were in 2004 before he got hurt and they were reigning division champs?
Maybe the Packers still wouldn't be as good as Chicago, but that's not a far-fetched question. Walker would make this offense all the more potent. But, then again, if the Packers hadn't traded Walker, they might not have some of the same draft picks and maybe the offensive line wouldn't be where it is in its development. Even if they'd be better off with Walker that raises too many other what-ifs.
So let the game move on.
What if the Packers hadn't squandered an inordinate number of draft picks from 2001 to 2004 and had more three- to six-year veterans, players who should be nearing or at the top of their games, filling key roles?
Those four drafts yielded just five players who are contributing: tight end David Martin (2001), defensive end Aaron Kampman ('02), linebacker Nick Barnett ('03), defensive tackle Corey Williams ('04) and center Scott Wells ('04). Kampman and Barnett are probably playing as well as anybody on defense. But the Packers would be better off if they were in a supporting role, not a lead role.
So where did they miss out?
It would seem rather obvious that the first place to look would be the 2004 draft, Mike Sherman's disaster; the draft that yielded Ahmad Carroll in the first round; and Joey Thomas, Donnell Washington and B.J. Sander in the third round.
But here's why it's best to be wary of off-the-cuff criticisms. No question, it was a terrible draft. But the Packers didn't miss out on a lot of good players, either, at least not in the neighborhood where they drafted.
The two players chosen directly after Carroll in the first round were running back Chris Perry and linebacker Jason Babin, and neither one is a starter or probably any more advanced than Carroll at this point.
Carolina drafted another cornerback Chris Gamble next. Gamble is a solid starter. He would have been a better choice than Carroll, but he has had his ups and downs, as well, and probably is no better than either of the Packers' starting cornerbacks.
There were three more players taken over the final four picks who are starting for other teams, but, again, probably aren't any better than what the Packers have starting at those positions. Those players are wide receiver Michael Jenkins with Atlanta, running back Kevin Jones with Detroit and tight end Ben Watson with New England. The one exception might be Watson, who could be a standout in the making.
The other choice at the end of the round was wide receiver Rashaun Woods by San Francisco, and he's no longer in the league.
Eleven of the first 14 picks in the second round also are starters this season. And the Packers could use some of them.
Chris Snee appears to be emerging as a Pro Bowl guard for the New York Giants and would provide the Packers with more experience and strength at that position. Jacksonville's Daryl Smith probably would be a starter for them at strong-side linebacker. If the Packers had drafted running back Julius Jones before Dallas, they probably would have said good-bye to Green by now. And safety Bob Sanders, taken 19 spots after Carroll by Indianapolis, would be a substantial upgrade over Marquand Manuel. Center Jake Grove, drafted by Oakland with the 13th pick of the second round, is another solid starter, but in the same class as Wells.
Of the final 17 players drafted in the second round, the one who probably would fill a need for the Packers better than any other would be San Francisco cornerback Shawntae Spencer. And he'd be a nickel back.
Of the 33 draft picks in the third round that year, 16 have been starters. But other than Arizona defensive tackle Darnell Dockett, a Cullen Jenkins type; Washington's productive H-back Chris Cooley, who would be a nice fit in Coach Mike McCarthy's multiple tight end offense; and Carolina tackle Travelle Wharton, who'd be a solid backup to Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, the Packers wouldn't have had much of a need for any of them.
While the Packers blew all three of their third-round picks, they weren't the only ones making mistakes. In all, 12 of the 33 choices are either out of the league or have been waived by their original teams.
The steal of that draft was defensive end Jared Allen, taken by Kansas City with the 30th choice of the fourth round. He's already close to being a top 10 player at that position. The Packers liked him that year, had him ranked about where he was drafted, but Sherman traded away two fourth-round choices.
Two other fourth-round picks, linebacker Shaun Phillips of San Diego and cornerback Nathan Vasher of Chicago, would help the current Packers as situational players, if not starters.
In a nutshell, if the Packers had taken someone like Snee instead of Carroll; and say a Cooley and Allen as two of their third-round picks, they'd be a better team. But a threat to win the Super Bowl? Probably not.
It just wasn't that good a draft after the top 20 picks or so.
But, now, let's look at 2001.
That was the year the Packers owned the 10th choice and selected defensive end Jamal Reynolds, then followed that by taking wide receiver Robert Ferguson in the second round, and defensive back Bhawoh Jue and linebacker Torrence Marshall in the third round.
It was former general manager Ron Wolf's last draft. And there has been considerable debate about whether he was at fault or Sherman, his appointed successor, for the first two picks. Sherman had considerable influence. But it was still Wolf's call and he also liked the players who were taken.
In the bigger picture, it's inconsequential. Say Wolf had insisted on taking linebacker Dan Morgan over Reynolds, which he later said would have been his preference. And say he had chosen Wisconsin receiver Chris Chambers over Ferguson.
Morgan is a good player, but he has never played an entire season. When this season ends, he will have missed 40 of 96 games with injuries. That means if the Packers had drafted him, they would have had to line up with their backup middle linebacker in better than 40% of the games the last six seasons.
They're better off with Barnett,
Chambers is a better receiver than Ferguson, but not a difference-maker.
Still, that was a draft where the Packers should have cashed it in big. That was a draft where they had a chance to land players who might have been the foundation for several more Super Bowl runs.
Three slots after the Packers took Reynolds, Jacksonville landed defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, who also had ranked high on the Packers' board. He's one of the top five defensive tackles in the game, a complete player and a three-time Pro Bowl choice in his first five years.
In the second round, three choices after Ferguson went, Carolina drafted defensive tackle Kris Jenkins. Later in the second round, Detroit picked defensive tackle Shaun Rogers.
Jenkins had emerged as perhaps the best defensive tackle in the game before injuries cut short his last two seasons. He's back and maybe not as disruptive as he was, but he's getting close to being a top five defensive tackle again. Rogers might have been playing better than any defensive tackle in the NFC when he was recently suspended for violation of the league's drug policy.
Back in 2001, the Packers' projected starters at defensive tackle were Santana Dotson, 32 and coming off a serious quadriceps injury; and Russell Maryland, a 32-year old stopgap.
They had a need there and it was the strongest position of the draft. Pittsburgh's Casey Hampton, one of the game's premier nose tackles, was another player available. He was taken nine picks after Reynolds.
Had the Packers allowed the strength of the draft to dictate their picks, never a bad approach, they could have had Stroud and Jenkins, or Stroud and Rogers, in the first two rounds. There also was a pretty good receiver sitting there in the third round when the Packers chose Jue and Marshall with back-to-back picks. Carolina took Steve Smith, one of the most explosive players in the game, two choices later.
Put Stroud and Jenkins or Stroud and Rogers in the middle of the Packers' lineup and nobody in the league might have a better defense, the Bears included. Give the Packers Smith, as well, and there's a good chance they'd be the team to beat heading into Super Bowl XLI.
BTW, did your mom only give your dad one shot at it? 
If not, then you wouldn't be Fritz with all the wits! I think I'll stop here - I might get on a roll or something. 
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