sporting news round 1 mock draft 1/18/06

[PackerPro42]

I actually like Irons. He runs with more power than his size suggests. However, in the 1st round? No way in hell. I'd rather have Irons than Lynch, however. I'd also rather have Michael Bush than Lynch. Sounds crazy. However, most RB's taken in the first round do not live up to expectations and at the end of the day, IMO, do not warrant the risk of spending a first round pick on one. Look at the starting backs in the NFL and you'll find that the majority of them are not first-rounders. RB is a position that can be filled from all over the draft. Spending a 1st on one, especially when it isn't a gaping hole, is unnecessary.

That can be said for any position in the draft, there's always some risk factor when it comes to drafting a player, but I believe the success rate for first round RB is quite high. Here's a list of starting RB in the league and when they were drafted.......

Ravens- Jamal Lewis= 1st round

Bengals- Rudi Johnson= 4th round

Bills- Willis McGahee= 1st round

Broncos- Tatum Bell= 2nd round

Browns- Reuben Droughns= 3rd round

Charger- LT=1st round

Chiefs- LJ= 1st round

Colts- Joseoh Adai=1st round

Dolphins- Ronnie Brown= 1st round

Jaguars= Maurice Jones-Drew=1st round

Jets- Leon Washington= 4th round

Patriots- Lawrence Maroney=1st round

Raiders- Lamont Jordan= 2nd round

Steelers- Willie Parker= Undrafted

Texans- Dominack Williams= 4th round

Titans- Travis Henry= 2nd round

49'ers- Frank Gore= 2nd round

Bears- Thomas Jones= 1st round

Bucs- Carnell Williams= 1st round

Cardinals- Edge= 1st round

Cowboys- Julius Jones= 1st round

Eagles- Brian Westbrook= ?

Falcons- Warrick Dunn= 1st round

Giants- Tiki Barber= 2nd Round

Lions- Jones= 1st round

Packers- Ahman Green= 6th round

Panthers- Deangelo Williams= 1st round

Rams- Stephen Jackson= 1st round

Redskins- Portis= 2nd round

Saints- Bush/ McCallister=1st

Seahawks- Alexander= 1st round

Vikings- Chester Taylor= ?

You're probably right though. I mean only 19 of the 32 starting NFL RB's are from the 1st round. And if you look, you'll see that most of the first rounders are the top RB's in the league.

[BooHoo]

I would be surprised if Iron's went that high in the draft.

[Lurker64]

I would be surprised if Iron's went that high in the draft.

If he runs well at the combine and looks unstoppable against NFL calibre talent at the senior bowl, who knows?

[HarveyWallbangers]

Ravens- Jamal Lewis= 1st round
Bengals- Rudi Johnson= 4th round
Bills- Willis McGahee= 1st round
Broncos- Tatum Bell= 2nd round
Browns- Reuben Droughns= 3rd round
Charger- LT=1st round
Chiefs- LJ= 1st round
Colts- Joseoh Adai=1st round
Dolphins- Ronnie Brown= 1st round
Jaguars= Maurice Jones-Drew=1st round
Jets- Leon Washington= 4th round
Patriots- Lawrence Maroney=1st round
Raiders- Lamont Jordan= 2nd round
Steelers- Willie Parker= Undrafted
Texans- Dominack Williams= 4th round
Titans- Travis Henry= 2nd round
49'ers- Frank Gore= 2nd round
Bears- Thomas Jones= 1st round
Bucs- Carnell Williams= 1st round
Cardinals- Edge= 1st round
Cowboys- Julius Jones= 1st round
Eagles- Brian Westbrook= ?
Falcons- Warrick Dunn= 1st round
Giants- Tiki Barber= 2nd Round
Lions- Jones= 1st round
Packers- Ahman Green= 6th round
Panthers- Deangelo Williams= 1st round
Rams- Stephen Jackson= 1st round
Redskins- Portis= 2nd round
Saints- Bush/ McCallister=1st
Seahawks- Alexander= 1st round
Vikings- Chester Taylor= ?

You're probably right though. I mean only 19 of the 32 starting NFL RB's are from the 1st round. And if you look, you'll see that most of the first rounders are the top RB's in the league.

Generally, I agree with you that it's silly to say you shouldn't draft a position because there have been a lot of busts at the position. However, your argument wasn't that great.

1) You counted both Bush and McAllister each as one of the 32 starting NFL RBs. Either it's 18 of 32 or 19 of 33.

2) Tiki, Jones-Drew and Julius Jones were 2nd round picks. Now, you are down to 15 of that 32. That sounds about the same at most positions. (See my analysis of WRs below.)

Conversely, RBs tend to be drafted higher than other positions. So, comparing RBs to safeties, you'll get more RBs drafted in the 1st round--even though you only need 1 RB and 2 safeties. This is important because then there's a bigger pool of busts also. In the last 10-12 years, here are the 1st round RB busts (or average players): Chris Perry, William Green, T.J. Duckett, Michael Bennett, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, Curtis Enis, Robert Edwards, John Avery, Lawrence Phillips, Ki-Jana Carter, Tyrone Wheatley, Rashaan Salaam, Greg Hill

FYI - Ahman, Gore, and Westbrook were 3rd round picks. Chester Taylor was a 6th round pick.

#1 WRs:

Ravens-Mark Clayton-1st round
Bengals-Chad Johnson-2nd round
Bills-Lee Evans-1st round
Broncos-Javon Walker-1st round
Browns-Braylon Edwards-1st round
Charger-Eric Parker-Undrafted
Chiefs-Eddie Kennison-1st round
Colts-Marvin Harrison-1st round
Dolphins-Chris Chambers-2nd round
Jaguars-Matt Jones-1st round
Jets-Laveranues Coles-3rd round
Patriots-Reche Caldwell-2nd round
Raiders-Randy Moss-1st round
Steelers-Hines Ward-3rd round
Texans-Andre Johnson-1st round
Titans-Drew Bennett-Undrafted
49'ers-Antonio Bryant-2nd round
Bears-Muhsin Muhammad-2nd round
Bucs-Joey Galloway-1st round
Cardinals-Larry Fitzgerald-1st round
Cowboys-Terrell Owens-3rd round
Eagles-Donte Stallworth-1st round
Falcons-Roddy White-1st round
Giants-Plaxico Burress-1st round
Lions-Roy Williams-1st round
Packers-Donald Driver-7th round
Panthers-Steve Smith-3rd round
Rams-Torry Holt-1st round
Redskins-Santana Moss-1st round
Saints-Marques Colston-7th round
Seahawks-Darrell Jackson-3rd round
Vikings-Travis Taylor-1st round

18 of the 32 #1 WRs in the league were first round picks.

That being said, I wouldn't NOT draft Lynch because of Ballhawk's reasoning. I do think that Denver has shown that you don't need to draft RBs high. You just need to find guys that fit the one-cut, zone blocking system.

[PackerPro42]

And Lynch fits that perfectly.

[HarveyWallbangers]

And Lynch fits that perfectly.

Just don't fall in love with Lynch. The odds are more likely he won't end up in Green Bay than will. He could have a great combine and go higher or bad one and go lower. What tends to happen with people is they fall in love with a player or two, and then when their team drafts somebody else, they are all bummed out. There will be other All-Pro players in the draft.

[BallHawk]

And Lynch fits that perfectly.

He could have a great combine and go higher or bad one and go lower. What tends to happen with people is they fall in love with a player or two, and then when their team drafts somebody else, they are all .

That's sort of what happened last year with Mario Williams. Before the combine Packer fans were contemplating between Williams and Hawk. Then, after the combine, we didn't have that problem any more. It all can change very quickly.

[the_idle_threat]

Ravens- Jamal Lewis= 1st round
Bengals- Rudi Johnson= 4th round
Bills- Willis McGahee= 1st round
Broncos- Tatum Bell= 2nd round
Browns- Reuben Droughns= 3rd round
Charger- LT=1st round
Chiefs- LJ= 1st round
Colts- Joseoh Adai=1st round
Dolphins- Ronnie Brown= 1st round
Jaguars= Maurice Jones-Drew=1st round
Jets- Leon Washington= 4th round
Patriots- Lawrence Maroney=1st round
Raiders- Lamont Jordan= 2nd round
Steelers- Willie Parker= Undrafted
Texans- Dominack Williams= 4th round
Titans- Travis Henry= 2nd round
49'ers- Frank Gore= 2nd round
Bears- Thomas Jones= 1st round
Bucs- Carnell Williams= 1st round
Cardinals- Edge= 1st round
Cowboys- Julius Jones= 1st round
Eagles- Brian Westbrook= ?
Falcons- Warrick Dunn= 1st round
Giants- Tiki Barber= 2nd Round
Lions- Jones= 1st round
Packers- Ahman Green= 6th round
Panthers- Deangelo Williams= 1st round
Rams- Stephen Jackson= 1st round
Redskins- Portis= 2nd round
Saints- Bush/ McCallister=1st
Seahawks- Alexander= 1st round
Vikings- Chester Taylor= ?

You're probably right though. I mean only 19 of the 32 starting NFL RB's are from the 1st round. And if you look, you'll see that most of the first rounders are the top RB's in the league.

Generally, I agree with you that it's silly to say you shouldn't draft a position because there have been a lot of busts at the position. However, your argument wasn't that great.

1) You counted both Bush and McAllister each as one of the 32 starting NFL RBs. Either it's 18 of 32 or 19 of 33.

2) Tiki, Jones-Drew and Julius Jones were 2nd round picks. Now, you are down to 15 of that 32. That sounds about the same at most positions. (See my analysis of WRs below.)

Conversely, RBs tend to be drafted higher than other positions. So, comparing RBs to safeties, you'll get more RBs drafted in the 1st round--even though you only need 1 RB and 2 safeties. This is important because then there's a bigger pool of busts also. In the last 10-12 years, here are the 1st round RB busts (or average players): Chris Perry, William Green, T.J. Duckett, Michael Bennett, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, Curtis Enis, Robert Edwards, John Avery, Lawrence Phillips, Ki-Jana Carter, Tyrone Wheatley, Rashaan Salaam, Greg Hill

FYI - Ahman, Gore, and Westbrook were 3rd round picks. Chester Taylor was a 6th round pick.

#1 WRs:

Ravens-Mark Clayton-1st round
Bengals-Chad Johnson-2nd round
Bills-Lee Evans-1st round
Broncos-Javon Walker-1st round
Browns-Braylon Edwards-1st round
Charger-Eric Parker-Undrafted
Chiefs-Eddie Kennison-1st round
Colts-Marvin Harrison-1st round
Dolphins-Chris Chambers-2nd round
Jaguars-Matt Jones-1st round
Jets-Laveranues Coles-3rd round
Patriots-Reche Caldwell-2nd round
Raiders-Randy Moss-1st round
Steelers-Hines Ward-3rd round
Texans-Andre Johnson-1st round
Titans-Drew Bennett-Undrafted
49'ers-Antonio Bryant-2nd round
Bears-Muhsin Muhammad-2nd round
Bucs-Joey Galloway-1st round
Cardinals-Larry Fitzgerald-1st round
Cowboys-Terrell Owens-3rd round
Eagles-Donte Stallworth-1st round
Falcons-Roddy White-1st round
Giants-Plaxico Burress-1st round
Lions-Roy Williams-1st round
Packers-Donald Driver-7th round
Panthers-Steve Smith-3rd round
Rams-Torry Holt-1st round
Redskins-Santana Moss-1st round
Saints-Marques Colston-7th round
Seahawks-Darrell Jackson-3rd round
Vikings-Travis Taylor-1st round

18 of the 32 #1 WRs in the league were first round picks.

That being said, I wouldn't NOT draft Lynch because of Ballhawk's reasoning. I do think that Denver has shown that you don't need to draft RBs high. You just need to find guys that fit the one-cut, zone blocking system.

Tiki was listed and counted as a 2nd-round pick. However, your numbers come out anyway (15 out of 32) because Deangelo Williams is not the starter in Carolina. Deshaun Foster is the starter there, and he was a 2nd-round pick. Also, according to depth charts at Yahoo sports and at nfl.com, Corey Dillon (2nd round) is the starter in New England over Maroney, and Fred Taylor (1st round) starts in JAX over Jones-Drew, so those two corrections cancel each other out.

FWIW, I agree that a team running the ZBS does not need to draft a RB high, although they would be wise to grab a top talent for the scheme even if it costs a high pick. I also agree it is too early to fall in love with any one player ... there is still a lot of time for draft stock to rise and/or fall with the combine and pro days forthcoming.

[Partial]

I actually like Irons. He runs with more power than his size suggests. However, in the 1st round? No way in hell. I'd rather have Irons than Lynch, however. I'd also rather have Michael Bush than Lynch. Sounds crazy. However, most RB's taken in the first round do not live up to expectations and at the end of the day, IMO, do not warrant the risk of spending a first round pick on one. Look at the starting backs in the NFL and you'll find that the majority of them are not first-rounders. RB is a position that can be filled from all over the draft. Spending a 1st on one, especially when it isn't a gaping hole, is unnecessary.

That can be said for any position in the draft, there's always some risk factor when it comes to drafting a player, but I believe the success rate for first round RB is quite high. Here's a list of starting RB in the league and when they were drafted.......

Ravens- Jamal Lewis= 1st round

Bengals- Rudi Johnson= 4th round

Bills- Willis McGahee= 1st round

Broncos- Tatum Bell= 2nd round

Browns- Reuben Droughns= 3rd round

Charger- LT=1st round

Chiefs- LJ= 1st round

Colts- Joseoh Adai=1st round

Dolphins- Ronnie Brown= 1st round

Jaguars= Maurice Jones-Drew=1st round

Jets- Leon Washington= 4th round

Patriots- Lawrence Maroney=1st round

Raiders- Lamont Jordan= 2nd round

Steelers- Willie Parker= Undrafted

Texans- Dominack Williams= 4th round

Titans- Travis Henry= 2nd round

49'ers- Frank Gore= 2nd round

Bears- Thomas Jones= 1st round

Bucs- Carnell Williams= 1st round

Cardinals- Edge= 1st round

Cowboys- Julius Jones= 1st round

Eagles- Brian Westbrook= ?

Falcons- Warrick Dunn= 1st round

Giants- Tiki Barber= 2nd Round

Lions- Jones= 1st round

Packers- Ahman Green= 6th round

Panthers- Deangelo Williams= 1st round

Rams- Stephen Jackson= 1st round

Redskins- Portis= 2nd round

Saints- Bush/ McCallister=1st

Seahawks- Alexander= 1st round

Vikings- Chester Taylor= ?

You're probably right though. I mean only 19 of the 32 starting NFL RB's are from the 1st round. And if you look, you'll see that most of the first rounders are the top RB's in the league.

That is terrible logic.

[PackerPro42]

It's terrible logic to think that drafting a position in the first round will be a waste of a pick because he'll be a bust. If you think that then you mind as well trade all you picks away for some high priced player that's already proven hiself. I was trying to show that the majority of the NFL starting RB are from the first round.

[Fritz]

One thing I like about TT is that he doesn't seem to get too caught up in the combine numbers. Yes, it's useful to see the players jump, run, think, and so on, but it kind of creeps me out how a player can have a kind of okay college career, then do a bunch of weightlifting and jumping at the combine, and all of a sudden he's a first rounder.

I agree with Harv that we as fans tend to get caught up with a few players, and if the Pack doesn't get "our" guy, we're upset. Happens to most of us. For the record, "my" guy this year is that Georgia Tech wide receiver, CJ. I would say this is the year Millen in Detroit SHOULD take a wide receiver high - and, being Millen, he won't.

I"m trying to be open about who the Pack takes - how much do I know, really? - but I am liking Marshawn Lynch.

I also like the idea of TT trading down and getting another second rounder. Heck, nobody - or few people - had any clue who Darryn Colledge was last year, and now it looks as if he could be a good starting NFL guard.

[BallHawk]

It's terrible logic to think that drafting a position in the first round will be a waste of a pick because he'll be a bust. If you think that then you mind as well trade all you picks away for some high priced player that's already proven hiself. I was trying to show that the majority of the NFL starting RB are from the first round.

I said that the bust factor for RBs is definitely a factor to consider, but I'm not basing my whole logic off that. I'd say the most important thing to consider, like others said, is that in the ZBS, you don't need a superstar to be successful. Look at the top RBs in the league and you'll find that none of them have a ring. A Superstar RB is not needed to win a SB, just ask the Patriots.

[Rastak]

It's terrible logic to think that drafting a position in the first round will be a waste of a pick because he'll be a bust. If you think that then you mind as well trade all you picks away for some high priced player that's already proven hiself. I was trying to show that the majority of the NFL starting RB are from the first round.

I said that the bust factor for RBs is definitely a factor to consider, but I'm not basing my whole logic off that. I'd say the most important thing to consider, like others said, is that in the ZBS, you don't need a superstar to be successful. Look at the top RBs in the league and you'll find that none of them have a ring. A Superstar RB is not needed to win a SB, just ask the Patriots.

Who drafted a running back in the first round last year!

[Lurker64]

I think what's important here is that Green Bay should absolutely take the best player available whether that's a running back or a defensive end or a safety or whatever. What we shouldn't do is lock in on taking a running back and take Lynch or god forbid Irons in the first passing up a better player who plays a different position.

If it's Lynch or Landry? I want Landry.
If it's Lynch or Reggie Nelson? I want Nelson.
If it's Lynch or Amobi Okoye? I want the guy whose name I have trouble pronouncing.

If it's Lynch or nobody? I'll take Lynch.

[BallHawk]

I think what's important here is that Green Bay should absolutely take the best player available whether that's a running back or a defensive end or a safety or whatever. What we shouldn't do is lock in on taking a running back and take Lynch or god forbid Irons in the first passing up a better player who plays a different position.

If it's Lynch or Landry? I want Landry.
If it's Lynch or Reggie Nelson? I want Nelson.
If it's Lynch or Amobi Okoye? I want the guy whose name I have trouble pronouncing.

If it's Lynch or nobody? I'll take Lynch.

I completely agree. Good post.