What Is Ted Really Up To?

[Scott Campbell]

Reasonable Explanations Of Strategy

There are some reasonable people here that have decided that Ted is not getting the job done. Yet I haven't seen very many explanations of what people think his real strategy is, other than to say "he's cheap". Most of what I read is merely complaints. Well I think as reasonable people, we can all admit that being cheap isn't at all likely as his real strategy. Calling him cheap is just a cop out so that you don't have to try and figure out what's really going on. There's obviously a lot more to it.

So why then? What is he really up to? What could be the detailed reasons for this approach?





p.s. For Tank.

Being gay, hibernating or being a tightwad are not detailed GM strategies. Please put a little thought into this, instead of just crying (Ron) wolf.

[Tarlam!]

Scott, TT has ben very up front about his strategy. From day 1 it was clear that he was building through the draft agressively and in FA selectively.

He has admitted making strong efforts to get a couple of FAs. They decided to go elswhere.

He has rewarded guys like Kampy. He has given Green and Davenport opportunities to showcase themselves.

He has acted in exactly the way he said he would.

[MJZiggy]

I think TT's strategy is fairly obvious, it's just that no one wants to hear it. He intends to build this team mainly through the draft--which means drafting for sheer talent at the top and trading around and finding sleeper talent in the later rounds. With this in mind, I don't think he's agonizing over the #5 pick as some "journalists" are assuming. He knows who he wants and unless someone offers him something incredible for that pick, he will keep it. Later rounds are not so definite. He will likely do a lot of trading around and come up with a decent class like he did last year. Once he's done with that, he will fill some holes with cuts and camp bodies, carefully evaluating each one before final cutdowns.

He will look for value in the vets--unrealized potential in younger players when possible and when not possible, looking to older vets for shorter term contracts. I think he learned from the Wahle business and in the future will handle those situations differently, though I don't anticipate him being that cash-strapped again. He is not going to cave to people. He will continue building the team regardless of JWalk wants or Favre decides or the fans think he should be doing. He will take one step forward at a time regardless of what anyone thinks.

[MJZiggy]

Re: What Is Ted Really Up To?

p.s. For Tank.

Being gay, hibernating or being a tightwad are not detailed GM strategies. Please put a little thought into this, instead of just crying (Ron) wolf.

Also, I have read the word 'dismantle' so many times, I just stop reading when I come to it as it just seems to invalidate the rest of the argument.

[Scott Campbell]

I read in another thread that a scout said the Packers need a CB, Safety, 2 Linebackers, DE, 2 Guards, Center, #1 WR, Punter, Kicker and a Kick Returner - and maybe a QB. Add it up - it's 13 players. It's hard to argue against that list, as all those positions are suspect to some degree. That is a lot, A LOT of holes to fill. $19M doesn't look like that much money when you have 13 holes.

So maybe you need quantity over quality right now. And maybe you need to save the cap space for next year, for those positions where your quantity strategy doesn't pan out. Right now it's tough to anticipate which of your gambles won't work out, so you don't try and anticipate which remaining holes you'll have until you get to watch this years roster evolve. Hopefully we'll have a much smaller number of holes to fill next year, and thanks to Ted, we'll still have the cap flexibility to fill them.

The other issue that completely changed the game for the Packers was the new CBA. Had it not been in place, the Packers would have been one of just a handful of teams with any money to spend this free agency period. We could have gotten good value for our money. Instead, everybody went into this free agency period with ridiculous amounts of money to spend, and the same number of players were available. Increased demand + same supply = rising prices. Teams like the Redskins got to bid up players, and many of these contracts are way out of whack for a team like ours with this many holes. You can't afford to overpay anyone when you have this many holes to fill. You can afford to get crazy with one or two free agents if that's all you need to compete for a Superbowl. Unfortunately, were not in that position. Not this year.

This is all I can think of that makes any kind of sense. And being cheap is not part of this strategy.

[Scott Campbell]

Re: What Is Ted Really Up To?

Also, I have read the word 'dismantle' so many times, I just stop reading when I come to it as it just seems to invalidate the rest of the argument.

Good point. Sometimes I think people are just venting and don't want to put any thought into trying to really figure out what's going on.

[Scott Campbell]

I think TT's strategy is fairly obvious, it's just that no one wants to hear it. He intends to build this team mainly through the draft--which means drafting for sheer talent at the top and trading around and finding sleeper talent in the later rounds. With this in mind, I don't think he's agonizing over the #5 pick as some "journalists" are assuming. He knows who he wants and unless someone offers him something incredible for that pick, he will keep it. Later rounds are not so definite. He will likely do a lot of trading around and come up with a decent class like he did last year. Once he's done with that, he will fill some holes with cuts and camp bodies, carefully evaluating each one before final cutdowns.

He will look for value in the vets--unrealized potential in younger players when possible and when not possible, looking to older vets for shorter term contracts. I think he learned from the Wahle business and in the future will handle those situations differently, though I don't anticipate him being that cash-strapped again. He is not going to cave to people. He will continue building the team regardless of JWalk wants or Favre decides or the fans think he should be doing. He will take one step forward at a time regardless of what anyone thinks.

I think your explanation is entirely plausible. It certainly passes the "reasonable" threshold. Well done.

I think you're also right about not caring what anyone thinks. A big name free agency signing would do a lot to quiet the natives. But that doesn't fit with what appears to be his strategy.

Some would call that stubborn. I'd call it resolve.

[Patler]

The other issue that completely changed the game for the Packers was the new CBA. Had it not been in place, the Packers would have been one of just a handful of teams with any money to spend this free agency period. We could have gotten good value for our money. Instead, everybody went into this free agency period with ridiculous amounts of money to spend, and the same number of players were available. Increased demand + same supply = rising prices. Teams like the Redskins got to bid up players, and many of these contracts are way out of whack for a team like ours with this many holes. You can't afford to overpay anyone when you have this many holes to fill. You can afford to get crazy with one or two free agents if that's all you need to compete for a Superbowl. Unfortunately, were not in that position. Not this year.

Scott; I agree, except for a detail. Because the salary cap went up so much, the supply of FAs was smaller than expected. There really were no "cap casualties", players that a team did not want to cut but had to cut to get under the cap. For example, it was widely expected that Denver had built a roster capable of only a one year run, because in the offseason they would release a lot of players to get under the cap. They did not have to do that.

Regarding TT's strategy, I like TT's conservative style. He is not going to overpay for a player just because he has the money. It makes no sense to pay more for a player than you determine he is worth. Might as well save the money, and flow it through to next year when there may be more players deserving it. To over pay players is building for mediocrity. Doing what TT appears to be doing, getting value for his money, may result in a few less wins this year or next, but in the long runs it builds a roster capable of a real chance to get to the Super Bowl. It also builds a team with depth that can sustain itself as a playoff threat for more than just a year or two

[RashanGary]

I think TT's strategy is fairly obvious, it's just that no one wants to hear it. He intends to build this team mainly through the draft--which means drafting for sheer talent at the top and trading around and finding sleeper talent in the later rounds. With this in mind, I don't think he's agonizing over the #5 pick as some "journalists" are assuming. He knows who he wants and unless someone offers him something incredible for that pick, he will keep it. Later rounds are not so definite. He will likely do a lot of trading around and come up with a decent class like he did last year. Once he's done with that, he will fill some holes with cuts and camp bodies, carefully evaluating each one before final cutdowns.

He will look for value in the vets--unrealized potential in younger players when possible and when not possible, looking to older vets for shorter term contracts. I think he learned from the Wahle business and in the future will handle those situations differently, though I don't anticipate him being that cash-strapped again. He is not going to cave to people. He will continue building the team regardless of JWalk wants or Favre decides or the fans think he should be doing. He will take one step forward at a time regardless of what anyone thinks.

You are an impressive poster Ziggy. Nobody knows right now exactly what is going to happen or if it's going to work but I think you've outlined Ted's philosophy about as good as one can with one paragraph.

If someone is looking for a pre-determined "This is the moves we're going to make" strategy, then they won't get one. The strategy is being flexible and opportunistic as well as thorough in his personnel work. Thompson has been quoted by Gil Brandt as being one of the most thorough GM's in the buis. He is a very good talent scout and has a big board that Brandt believes will be very accurate and among the best in the league. The very first thing that Ted is doing is making sure he has an accurate read of the talent in the draft. Not just the top 5 but the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounders that are harder to hit on as well. This is also evident by Thompson not wasting a visit on top players who he already has enough game tape and info on.

When it comes to draft strategy, Thompson will first have his board together and in order of best player first not in order of need first. Thompson wants to be both oppertunistic and flexible. He's stated that he believes you gain the best talent by picking the best players. He's listed multiple circumstances where picking the player of need blew up in teams faces. So he's not going to take a player just because they need him right now. So the strategy is that there is no plan or set in stone path to follow. He will take each situation as it comes up and through, great preparation and a belief that taking the best players at each position, he will end up with a group of players that he believes are the best possible at those positions. It might be a CB. It might be a OG. It might be a WR but it's not going to be planned. If your looking for some TT guide to building the team your not going to get one. He’s going to take the best players and nobody even he can predict that.

The players he cannot fill through the draft he will again fall back on his hard work and preparation and fill positions by first calling guys who were undrafted but he knows have talent like Roy Manning last year. He’ll then go to the other avenues of risk free players like players who have been cut like Lee and Gado or Canadian punters and so on. He doesn’t believe in paying 5 times as much for a player who is only slightly better than the other guy. He’s not going to panic and fill a hole with players who’s salary will ultimately take away from other positions. It’s not being “cheap”. It’s being value conscious. He’s going to get the very most out of his 100 mil per year and he believes that paying too much for talent hurts that cause.

It’s not a set in stone strategy. In the draft he wants to get the most talented players at each draft position. He doesn’t want to take an average LB when he could have gotten a superstar S as an example.

In FA it’s a matter of using $$ in a way that will help the team. Javon Walker is a great player. He’s even greater at 1 mil per year. If he was making 20 mil per year he would be taking money from the Kamps, Picketts, Cliftons, ect.......and the Packers would have their star reciever but the fact that he was overpaid would be taking away from the rest of the team. That was an exaggerated example of how overpaying hurts but if he overpays just a little each off season it will add up to be one big mistake. The big mistake was the panic driven mentality that ultimately caused your team to have less talent. So to your assumption that Thompson is being “Cheap” well that is just not the case. It’s called being smart and using his cap as wisely as possible. If he drafts well he’s going to have a lot of up and coming players who need $$ and right now we have too much but eventually if Thompson does his job we won’t have enough. If we’re lucky it will be because we have so much talent on our roster that it’s impossible to pay for it. If we’re unlucky it will be because we spent too much for our average players. Get the picture?

[RashanGary]

Great post Shamrock......

[MacCool606]

If you compare what TT is doing with what Wolf did early on, it is very similar. Wolf picked up several "plan B" free agents that halped increase the talent level of the bench (and special teams). TT is doing that through 2nd tier free agents. If you get lucky, like wolf did with some (I think Frank Winters was a plan B F/A?), you look like a genius. If you don't (Klemm last year) you look like a fool.

Doubters have to realize that the perspective is a little different for TT than for Wolf. TT is rebuilding after a very successful run where failures are harder to take, and successes (Collins, Gado, Montgomery (?) and Poppinga (?) mabe Whiticker (sp ?) are overshadowed by the 4 - 12 record. Wolf came after years of mediocre .500 teams and the improvements were easier to spot.

For all of Tank's rants about what a great GM Sherman was, I find it hard to believe we have so many holes to fill. According to "an executive from another NFL team", in an article in the JS tday, the only positions we don't need someone are Off. Tackle and TE. That's great.

[Packers4Ever]

Re: What Is Ted Really Up To?

Also, I have read the word 'dismantle' so many times, I just stop reading when I come to it as it just seems to invalidate the rest of the argument.

Good point. Sometimes I think people are just venting and don't want to put any thought into trying to really figure out what's going on.

* * * * * * * * *

And I'm getting sick of hearing "building for_______" Too easy a term to come up with but then, it is all-inclusive.
Oh and one other thing, I may sound naive here but shouldn't the GM and HC appear on TV news or sports' channels at least ONCE in a while? It certainly couldn't hurt their PR, could it? They just seem so inaccessible.

Not that the PB has a magnetic personality, mind you.....


Judy

[CyclonePackFan]

Re: What Is Ted Really Up To?

Also, I have read the word 'dismantle' so many times, I just stop reading when I come to it as it just seems to invalidate the rest of the argument.

Good point. Sometimes I think people are just venting and don't want to put any thought into trying to really figure out what's going on.

* * * * * * * * *

And I'm getting sick of hearing "building for_______" Too easy a term to come up with but then, it is all-inclusive.
Oh and one other thing, I may sound naive here but shouldn't the GM and HC appear on TV news or sports' channels at least ONCE in a while? It certainly couldn't hurt their PR, could it? They just seem so inaccessible.

Not that the PB has a magnetic personality, mind you.....


Judy

We've been spoiled, Ron Wolf and Mike Sherman were two people who didn't mind talking to the media and letting the whole world know what they had in mind. LOTS of coaches (two that come to mind right off the top of my head are Bill Belichek and Nick Saban) don't think the media needs to konw every little detail about the team and their plans.

[MJZiggy]

The other issue that completely changed the game for the Packers was the new CBA. Had it not been in place, the Packers would have been one of just a handful of teams with any money to spend this free agency period. We could have gotten good value for our money. Instead, everybody went into this free agency period with ridiculous amounts of money to spend, and the same number of players were available. Increased demand + same supply = rising prices.

It's increased demand, certainly, but also consider that had the CBA not passed, there would have been far more players on the market when teams had to cut good players to get back under the cap. Remember when we were all drooling considering some of the people that would have been cut had the cap not risen so dramatically! I wonder if everyone would have been screaming this loud had the cap not risen and TT could have had his pick of players at reasonable prices.

edit: just realized I said about the same thing as Shamrock. Great minds!!

[Scott Campbell]

Scott; I agree, except for a detail. Because the salary cap went up so much, the supply of FAs was smaller than expected. There really were no "cap casualties", players that a team did not want to cut but had to cut to get under the cap. For example, it was widely expected that Denver had built a roster capable of only a one year run, because in the offseason they would release a lot of players to get under the cap. They did not have to do that.

Good point. I stand corrected. Though the result was largely the same - an imbalance of demand with respect to supply. Prices shot up.