F/A JENKINS UPDATE

[wist43]

Jenkins is not a 4 game wonder... he has been solid for a few years now.

Sherman should have been starting him at end two years ago... He's been Green Bay's best interior rusher since he got here. It's not his fault that multiple coaching staffs were so clueless that they couldn't find a way to get him on to the field more.

Bottom line is, Jenkins is damn good player and he has more upside - I wouldn't take a low 1st rounder for him.

[Packnut]

Safe

What makes this choice difficult is we all still feel the sting of the KGB debacle. How can you put fair value on a guy that only had 4 solid games? I think the safest way is to make him prove how good he is this season BEFORE handing him a lot of cash. I'd rather pay more for a sure thing then a lot for may-be's and could be's.

I certainly see your point. But if Jenkins has an Aaron-Kampman-in-2006 kind of season, which I think is very possible now that more blocking attention will be shifted over to Kampman's side, we will have a top-tier unrestricted free agent on our hands. Only now do we have some leverage to negotiate.

Many on this forum have advocated taking big chances on free agents, oftentimes when their former teams have very good reason to let them go (*cough* Lavar Arrington *cough**cough* Eric Johnson *cough*) Given what Cullen Jenkins has shown in terms of work ethic and improvement so far, why not take the chance on him instead?

My thought was give him the high 1 year offer and at least let him play 4 or 5 games and prove he's worth the big money. Then you can negotiate the big deal with him. The Packers would still have some leverage since Jenkins would have to worry about a serious injury ruining that big check. Not to mention waving a HUGE signing bonus check in his face. This way, everyone ends up happy.

With KGB taking up all that dead money, we can't afford another mistake like that.

[red]

wist, you just want them to sign him at a big deal so you can have something else to bitch about in a year or so

actually idle, i am being reasonable, and you guys are just pissed because i won't agree with you about this.

you said yourself, he's been solid in his career, i agree. solid but nothing special until the last 4 games. 8-11 million is the pay that someone special gets

and kampman got his contract after a huge 2005 season partial, he just follwed it up with another one

theres a ton of risk involved here, and i want to cut a lot of that risk out by just slapping the high tender on him

but that type of thinking is obnoxious and insulting

[red]

Re: Safe

What makes this choice difficult is we all still feel the sting of the KGB debacle. How can you put fair value on a guy that only had 4 solid games? I think the safest way is to make him prove how good he is this season BEFORE handing him a lot of cash. I'd rather pay more for a sure thing then a lot for may-be's and could be's.

I certainly see your point. But if Jenkins has an Aaron-Kampman-in-2006 kind of season, which I think is very possible now that more blocking attention will be shifted over to Kampman's side, we will have a top-tier unrestricted free agent on our hands. Only now do we have some leverage to negotiate.

Many on this forum have advocated taking big chances on free agents, oftentimes when their former teams have very good reason to let them go (*cough* Lavar Arrington *cough**cough* Eric Johnson *cough*) Given what Cullen Jenkins has shown in terms of work ethic and improvement so far, why not take the chance on him instead?

My thought was give him the high 1 year offer and at least let him play 4 or 5 games and prove he's worth the big money. Then you can negotiate the big deal with him. The Packers would still have some leverage since Jenkins would have to worry about a serious injury ruining that big check. Not to mention waving a HUGE signing bonus check in his face. This way, everyone ends up happy.

With KGB taking up all that dead money, we can't afford another mistake like that.

exactly

[Partial]

wist, you just want them to sign him at a big deal so you can have something else to bitch about in a year or so

actually idle, i am being reasonable, and you guys are just pissed because i won't agree with you about this.

you said yourself, he's been solid in his career, i agree. solid but nothing special until the last 4 games. 8-11 million is the pay that someone special gets

and kampman got his contract after a huge 2005 season partial, he just follwed it up with another one

theres a ton of risk involved here, and i want to cut a lot of that risk out by just slapping the high tender on him

but that type of thinking is obnoxious and insulting

8-11 is NOT the amount a special player gets. A special player, even one that is a shadow of himself and maybe top 10 at his position, gets 11 million per year on a 5-6 year old contract, and would get about 15 million a year today.

4-5 mil a year is nothing. Special players get that much * 3.

[Partial]

Re: Safe

What makes this choice difficult is we all still feel the sting of the KGB debacle. How can you put fair value on a guy that only had 4 solid games? I think the safest way is to make him prove how good he is this season BEFORE handing him a lot of cash. I'd rather pay more for a sure thing then a lot for may-be's and could be's.

I certainly see your point. But if Jenkins has an Aaron-Kampman-in-2006 kind of season, which I think is very possible now that more blocking attention will be shifted over to Kampman's side, we will have a top-tier unrestricted free agent on our hands. Only now do we have some leverage to negotiate.

Many on this forum have advocated taking big chances on free agents, oftentimes when their former teams have very good reason to let them go (*cough* Lavar Arrington *cough**cough* Eric Johnson *cough*) Given what Cullen Jenkins has shown in terms of work ethic and improvement so far, why not take the chance on him instead?

My thought was give him the high 1 year offer and at least let him play 4 or 5 games and prove he's worth the big money. Then you can negotiate the big deal with him. The Packers would still have some leverage since Jenkins would have to worry about a serious injury ruining that big check. Not to mention waving a HUGE signing bonus check in his face. This way, everyone ends up happy.

With KGB taking up all that dead money, we can't afford another mistake like that.

exactly

Ok, but that is in a dream world. Say he has a great 3-4 game stint next year. TT approaches him and says "Cullen, we'd like to lock you up for 6 years. We're thinking 11 mil guaranteed money at around 5 million gross compensation per year".

You do realize that Jenkins response will be this:
"You had your chance at that last offseason. I'm going to test free agency. You double it and i'll be a Packer. It's time to see just how much I am worth, especially with the cap going up each year and all and the abundance of teams with cap room!"

[the_idle_threat]

Re: Safe

My thought was give him the high 1 year offer and at least let him play 4 or 5 games and prove he's worth the big money. Then you can negotiate the big deal with him. The Packers would still have some leverage since Jenkins would have to worry about a serious injury ruining that big check. Not to mention waving a HUGE signing bonus check in his face. This way, everyone ends up happy.

With KGB taking up all that dead money, we can't afford another mistake like that.

Your plan is reasonable. The big risk there is that he plays so well that he decides to play out the year at the tender and test the market in 2008 as an unrestricted free agent. Then we have to decide whether we're going to tag him or let him get top dollar as one of the top free agents at his position.

Right now, he's a restricted free agent, so we have bargaining power. If he will sign for something akin to the Kampman deal, then it's worth locking him up. After all, he's been on the team for 3 years and he's started more than 20 games. He has not sat on the bench as a career backup until the last 4 games of 2006. What more is he going to show us that he hasn't already?

In today's cap dollars, a KGB-type deal would be 40 or 50 million dollars with a 15-20 million dollar signing bonus. If that's what Jenkins wants right now, then I agree we should tag him and make him play out his current deal. But if he's willing to be reasonable and sign a 5 year deal for $20-25 million with a signing bonus of $8 to 10 million, it would be a steal for a starting defensive end.

[Partial]

Re: Safe

My thought was give him the high 1 year offer and at least let him play 4 or 5 games and prove he's worth the big money. Then you can negotiate the big deal with him. The Packers would still have some leverage since Jenkins would have to worry about a serious injury ruining that big check. Not to mention waving a HUGE signing bonus check in his face. This way, everyone ends up happy.

With KGB taking up all that dead money, we can't afford another mistake like that.

Your plan is reasonable. The big risk there is that he plays so well that he decides to play out the year at the tender and test the market in 2008 as an unrestricted free agent. Then we have to decide whether we're going to tag him or let him get top dollar as one of the top free agents at his position.

Right now, he's a restricted free agent, so we have bargaining power. If he will sign for something akin to the Kampman deal, then it's worth locking him up. After all, he's been on the team for 3 years and he's started more than 20 games. He has not sat on the bench as a career backup until the last 4 games of 2006. What more is he going to show us that he hasn't already?

In today's cap dollars, a KGB-type deal would be 40 or 50 million dollars with a 15-20 million dollar signing bonus. If that's what Jenkins wants right now, then I agree we should tag him and make him play out his current deal. But if he's willing to be reasonable and sign a 5 year deal for $20-25 million with a signing bonus of $8 to 10 million, it would be a steal for a starting defensive end.

20ish. 25 might be pushing it.

[Packnut]

Deal

Well, I guess it all comes down to what he's asking for. Since we don't have that info, it's all a mute point right now.

[the_idle_threat]

wist, you just want them to sign him at a big deal so you can have something else to bitch about in a year or so

actually idle, i am being reasonable, and you guys are just pissed because i won't agree with you about this.

you said yourself, he's been solid in his career, i agree. solid but nothing special until the last 4 games. 8-11 million is the pay that someone special gets

and kampman got his contract after a huge 2005 season partial, he just follwed it up with another one

theres a ton of risk involved here, and i want to cut a lot of that risk out by just slapping the high tender on him

but that type of thinking is obnoxious and insulting

Red, the following posts are obnoxious and insulting:

carlyle holiday looked good the last game too

we mine as well throw 50 million at him too

and instead of trading samkon, we should have given him 80 million after what he did in 2005

and abdul hodge, i mean come on, you guys saw family night. we need to lock him up for the next 10 years right now

and what about underwood, he loked great in training camp, 15 mill up front is more then fair in todays market for the talent he showed

Right, I think people are having a difficult time distingushing between 6 years versus 1 year.

right, and i think people have a difficult time realizing that it was bone headed stupid moves like you guys wanted to do that put us in cap hell in the first place a couple years ago, forcing us to get rid of half our good players

this is something sherman would do. "oh, he showed a flash, lock him up long term"

What is reasonable about these posts, red?

[red]

who's in the dream world? who the hell makes 15 million a year in the nfl

i think you're confusing real contracts with the giant fake back loaded contracts that say they're 5 years but they're really 2 year deals, like what whale had

players rarely ever see a huge amount of that contract money. it doesn't look like TT backloads too bad. jenkins would likely see all of his contract. he would never see a 7 year 50 million dollar deal with 25 million coming in the last two years. thats not a real contract. its really a 5 year 25 million dollar deal. and thats what the big players sign



and honestly partial. i'd rather hold off for half a season and see if he is the real deal, then pay him more then what we would have to pay now. i wouldn't mind that. you pay a little more, but the overall risk is lower. i have no problem with that. another few million spread over 5 or 6 years is no big deal to find out if the player is really as good as you think

[wist43]

$3-4 million doesn't have to be "the real deal"... he just has to be a solid contributor.

And by any measure, especially after taking into account his upside, I think Jenkins meets that criteria.

As Partial has been saying, the $$$ we're talking about isn't exhorbitant... I don't view signing Jenkins as a risk - solid guy. It would seem that even TT agrees with this position, as they have begun discussions on a contract.

If TT thought of Jenkins as "just a guy" he would simply slap the minimum tender on him and not look back... or for that matter, simply take your approach, slap him with the 1st round tender, and not even bother to talk about an extension.

[Partial]

who's in the dream world? who the hell makes 15 million a year in the nfl

i think you're confusing real contracts with the giant fake back loaded contracts that say they're 5 years but they're really 2 year deals, like what whale had

players rarely ever see a huge amount of that contract money. it doesn't look like TT backloads too bad. jenkins would likely see all of his contract. he would never see a 7 year 50 million dollar deal with 25 million coming in the last two years. thats not a real contract. its really a 5 year 25 million dollar deal. and thats what the big players sign



and honestly partial. i'd rather hold off for half a season and see if he is the real deal, then pay him more then what we would have to pay now. i wouldn't mind that. you pay a little more, but the overall risk is lower. i have no problem with that. another few million spread over 5 or 6 years is no big deal to find out if the player is really as good as you think

So, you'd rather likely lose a player then pay him what he deserves/decent wage today, but will look like nothing in 3 years?

[red]

$3-4 million doesn't have to be "the real deal"... he just has to be a solid contributor.

And by any measure, especially after taking into account his upside, I think Jenkins meets that criteria.

As Partial has been saying, the $$$ we're talking about isn't exhorbitant... I don't view signing Jenkins as a risk - solid guy. It would seem that even TT agrees with this position, as they have begun discussions on a contract.

If TT thought of Jenkins as "just a guy" he would simply slap the minimum tender on him and not look back... or for that matter, simply take your approach, slap him with the 1st round tender, and not even bother to talk about an extension.

i don't think we're talking about 3 to 4 million a year wist. if we were talking around 3 i wouldn't have much of a problem with this. i think we're talking about 5 to 6 million a year average with that kind of bonus. thats where i think you can run into problems

if he only proves to be a solid player, and we're a few years down the road. and we're saying, you know, he's not bad, but he's not worth what we're paying him, and we could really use that money to upgrade his position.

how easy would it be to cut him?

if its a 11 million dollar or so signing bonus, we might have a problem cutting him. then we're kind of stuck with him, like we are now with kgb. and if you give it to him all up front,, say he counts 8 or 9 million against this years cap, and he turns out to be nothing, then you just wasted a lot of money

thats why i say wait for a little while longer, to make sure. even if it costs you a little more

the only way i wouldn't mind 11 million in bonus money is if, we did something like a 4 million signing bonus, maybe a or 3 million dollar roster bonus this year with a minimum salary. about a 4.5 million cap hit this year. then like a 3 million dollar roster bonus next year, so if he doesn't look like he deserves that money next year, we can cut him and fix the problem. or if he does play at a high level, we keep him at about a 4.5 million dollar cap hit.

theres your 11 million dollar bonus money, its not all guaranteed, but you get it all in the first two years. after that his salary would go up, but if he's playing well you keep him, no problem. and if he doesn't deserve his salary you can cut him with a fairly small cap hit

that i wouldn't mind

5 year deal. 25 million, 11 million bonus money(5 million signing bonus, 6 million in roster bonuses)

2007

base salary- 750,000
prsb - 1,000,000
roster bonus- 3,000,000
total cap hit- 4.75 million

2008

base salary 750,000
prsb- 1,000,000
roster bonus- 3,000,000
total- 4.75

2009

base salary-3,000,000
prsb- 1,000,000
total- 4,000,000

2010

base 4,000,000
prsb-1,000,000
total - 5,000,000

2011

base- 5,500,000
prsb-1,000,000
total- 6,500,000

now thats a pretty low risk contract. that pays the guy well if he deserves it, and allows you to cut him if he doesn't deserve it

[the_idle_threat]

I can agree with that. We'll see what happens.