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  • How important is the draft?

    By Gil Brandt
    NFL.com Senior Analyst


    (April 2, 2007) -- Back in the early 1970s, Pittsburgh Steelers owner Art Rooney made a decision. His long-struggling franchise would no longer try to rebuild by trading away draft picks for veteran talent. The Steelers would build a foundation of young players through the NFL draft. And so they did.

    Whether it was first-round picks like Terry Bradshaw or fourth-rounders like John Stallworth or fifth-rounders like Mike Webster, the plan worked to perfection, and a dynasty was born.

    And that's a perfect example of why we go straight from the Super Bowl these days right into talk of the Senior Bowl and the combine and the Pro Day workouts. The path to the draft is critical, and history tells us that no matter what era you are talking about, teams that draft well will always prosper. Teams that do not draft well will struggle.

    Going back to the very first draft in 1936, history proves this to be true. At the time, there were nine teams in the NFL, and each team drafted nine players.

    Of the nine players taken by the Philadelphia Eagles, none ever played in a regular-season game for Philadelphia. It's not a coincidence that over the next five years, the Eagles won a total of 10 games, with no winning seasons.

    During that same draft, five of the nine players drafted by the Chicago Bears played in the NFL -- including future Hall of Famers Joe Stydahar and Dan Fortmann. The Bears won 40 games in that five-year span after the '36 draft, all winning seasons.

    From 1956-1958, the Green Bay Packers won a total of eight games. But during that time they drafted five future Hall of Fame players -- Forrest Gregg, Bart Starr, Paul Hornung, Ray Nitschke and Jim Taylor -- and four more players who earned Pro Bowl honors -- Ron Kramer, Jerry Kramer, Bob Skoronski and Dan Curry. From 1960-63, they were responsible for 43 victories and two NFL championships.

    In Super Bowl X, of the 87 active players on the combined rosters of the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, 86 were drafted or signed as undrafted free agents by those teams. The exception was running back Preston Pearson, who was in his first season with Dallas after spending the previous five seasons with Pittsburgh. The Baltimore Colts drafted Pearson in Round 12 in 1967.

    This year's Super Bowl was another good example. Both starting quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Rex Grossman, were acquired via the draft, and a combined 50 players on the Colts and Bears -- including key performers such as Marvin Harrison and Brian Urlacher -- were draft picks.

    Of the 97 players in this year's Pro Bowl, one was acquired via trade (Champ Bailey) and nine were free-agent signings. So 87 Pro Bowl performers were "homegrown talent" -- playing for the team that originally picked them up.

    Twenty-eight of the 37 different men who have won the Super Bowl MVP award had those performances for the teams that originally drafted them.

    Does that give you a better idea of why there is so much activity and interest leading up to the draft?

    With that in mind, we've taken a look at the picks that have been slotted first through 10th overall in the past 10 years. It's too early to judge the past two top overall picks -- Mario Williams of the Texans and Alex Smith of San Francisco. But it's safe to say the best number ones of the past 10 years have been Peyton Manning, Orlando Pace and Carson Palmer. Likewise, it's safe to say the most disappointing number ones in that time have been Tim Couch and Courtney Brown.


    No. 1 overall picks
    Misses -- Courtney Brown (CLE, 2000); David Carr (HOU, '02); Tim Couch (CLE, '99)
    Hits -- Peyton Manning (IND, '98); Orlando Pace (STL, '97); Carson Palmer (CIN, '03)
    Jury still out -- Michael Vick (ATL, '01)
    No. 2 overall picks
    Misses -- Ryan Leaf (SD, '98); Charles Rogers (DET, '03)
    Hits -- Reggie Bush (NO, '06); Donovan McNabb (PHI, '99); Julius Peppers (CAR, '02)
    Jury still out -- Robert Gallery (OAK, '04)
    No. 3 overall picks
    Misses -- Joey Harrington (DET, '02); Akili Smith (CIN, '99); Andre Wadsworth (ARI, '98)
    Hits -- Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, '04); Andre' Johnson (HOU, '03); Vince Young (TEN, '06)
    No. 4 overall picks
    Misses -- Peter Warrick (CIN, '00); Mike Williams (BUF, '02)
    Hits -- Edgerrin James (IND, '99); Charles Woodson (OAK, '98)
    No. 5 overall picks
    Misses -- Curtis Enis (CHI, '98); Ricky Williams (NO, '99)
    Hits -- A.J. Hawk (GB, '06); Jamal Lewis (BAL, '00); LaDainian Tomlinson (SD, '01)
    No. 6 overall picks
    Misses -- Ryan Sims (KC, '02); Johnathan Sullivan (NO, '03)
    Hits -- Torry Holt (STL, '99); Walter Jones (SEA, '97); Richard Seymour (NE, '01)
    No. 7 overall picks
    Misses -- Andre Carter (SF, '01); Troy Williamson (MIN, '05)
    Hits -- Champ Bailey (WAS, '99)
    No. 8 overall picks
    Misses -- David Terrell (CHI, '01)
    Hits -- DeAngelo Hall (ATL, '04)
    No. 9 overall picks
    Misses -- Tom Knight (ARI '97); Koren Robinson (SEA, '01)
    Hits -- Fred Taylor (JAC, '98); Brian Urlacher (CHI, '00); Kevin Williams (MIN, '03)
    No. 10 overall picks
    Misses -- Jamal Reynolds (GB, '01)
    Hits -- Chris McAlister (BAL, '99); Terrell Suggs (BAL, '03)




    As you can see, having top-10 picks doesn't guarantee success. In the past 10 years, Arizona has had eight top-10 selections and Detroit has had seven -- and their combined record last season was 8-24.

    New England (one), Pittsburgh (one) and Indianapolis (two) have had a combined four top-10 picks over the past 10 years, and they have won five out of the past six Super Bowls. New England picked Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000.
    Draft Brandin Cooks WR OSU!

  • #2
    Carr I would think the jury is still out. Payton Manning would be just as bad if he didnt have the line blocking for him...
    Swede: My expertise in this area is extensive. The essential difference between a "battleship" and an "aircraft carrier" is that an aircraft carrier requires five direct hits to sink, but it takes only four direct hits to sink a battleship.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Tony Oday
      Carr I would think the jury is still out. Payton Manning would be just as bad if he didnt have the line blocking for him...
      If I'm a GM of a "good" team...I would take a chance with Carr...ie, Minnesota...not that they have a "good" team. But Carr could be your QB of the future I think there. I donno, I think the kid still has a lot of potential.
      "I would love to have a guy that always gets the key hit, a pitcher that always makes his best pitch and a manager that can always make the right decision. The problem is getting him to put down his beer and come out of the stands and do those things." - Danny Murraugh

      Comment


      • #4
        Outside of his one year at Fresno St. when the hell has Carr ever produced? He seems like he is always going to be that great sleeper pick in Fantasy but he can never get off his backside long enough to find a receiver. His offensive line has never been good, but come on, alot of good qbs in the past could have used that excuse, but in reality they all had better pocket presence, and an overall better feel for the game. Case and point, look at Favre when he was in his first two years in Green Bay, his offensive line was terrible, but he made it work and he was only a second round pick.

        The bottom line is that Dave Carr, is not a franchise qb for any team, and has not lived up to his billing as the #1 overall pick.


        But to answer the initial question, this draft is as important as the previous drafts. Hitting on those mid to late picks is what makes a team better in the long run.

        Comment


        • #5
          carr is tough and does deserve another look by teams that need a QB. Personally, I'd sign Carr and send ARod to Oakland if that rumored deal could be done.
          Pass Jessica's Law and keep the predators behind bars for 25 years minimum. Vote out liberal, SP judges. Enforce all immigrant laws!

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          • #6
            Hell, if I had to chose only one, between Rodgers and Carr, I'd choose Carr. People don't realize how good he is.
            "I've got one word for you- Dallas, Texas, Super Bowl"- Jermichael Finley

            Comment


            • #7
              quick side note here...my buddy and I are constructing our own Draft website...so far it just has the mock that I posted on here a week ago or so, but we're working on it.



              doesn't sound like a draft website, my buddy actually turned their wedding website into a draft website true love. Actually it was an informal website about their wedding, so the wife doesn't care anymore. Bookmark it, I'll even mention when things are added.
              "I would love to have a guy that always gets the key hit, a pitcher that always makes his best pitch and a manager that can always make the right decision. The problem is getting him to put down his beer and come out of the stands and do those things." - Danny Murraugh

              Comment


              • #8
                I agree with Nutz. I think that Carr is a bad QB who doens't know when or how to get rid of the ball quickly. A good QB would never be sacked that much *see Favre 2 seasons ago*
                Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by BallHawk
                  Hell, if I had to chose only one, between Rodgers and Carr, I'd choose Carr. People don't realize how good he is.
                  Damnit, I liked Rodgers in college but it would make sense sending him to Oakland (getting Moss) and signing Carr. I don't see TT's guy going anywhere though - too much GM pride.
                  PackerRats Thompson D. Yahoo Fantasy Football Champ 2019,
                  PackerRats Thompson D. Yahoo Fantasy Football Champ 2018,
                  PackerRats Pick'Em 2016-17 Champ + Packers year Survival Football Champ 2017,
                  Rats Yahoo Fantasy Football Champ 2013,
                  Ratz Survival Football Champ 2012,
                  PackerRats1 Yahoo Fantasy Football Champ 2006.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ND72
                    quick side note here...my buddy and I are constructing our own Draft website...so far it just has the mock that I posted on here a week ago or so, but we're working on it.



                    doesn't sound like a draft website, my buddy actually turned their wedding website into a draft website true love. Actually it was an informal website about their wedding, so the wife doesn't care anymore. Bookmark it, I'll even mention when things are added.
                    All it needs is a link to PR.
                    "Greatness is not an act... but a habit.Greatness is not an act... but a habit." -Greg Jennings

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      ND, you should do a football podcast and put it up on iTunes. I'd know I'd subscribe.
                      "I've got one word for you- Dallas, Texas, Super Bowl"- Jermichael Finley

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