ESPN INSIDER : Pack looking for takers

[swede]

Well, that is why they hung on to their first pick last year, You have a good shot at an impact player at #5.

This year the talent seems to be a little jammed up at pick #16. I would not be disappointed to hear that the pick had been traded down 4-6 spots in order to pick up an extra choice.

Edit: How much would a team expect in return for dropping from 16 to 22? An extra third?

[Fritz]

I read an excellent article a couple of years ago on the science of trading up vs. stockpiling picks. A university - I am sorry to report I don't have the source - did a study and found that trading up rarely works, and stastically the more picks you have the better your chances of "hitting" on players. I am sorry I don't have the source, but saw it in a Detroit paper a couple years ago.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I read an excellent article a couple of years ago on the science of trading up vs. stockpiling picks. A university - I am sorry to report I don't have the source - did a study and found that trading up rarely works, and stastically the more picks you have the better your chances of "hitting" on players. I am sorry I don't have the source, but saw it in a Detroit paper a couple years ago.

I definitely can buy that. It's all a crap shoot. Trading up might increase your chance of hitting on a player at that pick, but I don't think it increases it that much. Whereas having 8 or 9 picks--instead of 5 or 6--would seem to almost double your chances.

[Guiness]

I don't see it being likely that TT trades down from 16 - for the reason stated that he'd want to. The same as we don't see a talent drop off by going down a few picks, why would other teams see value in moving up 6-10 slots?

I think the teams immediately below us will likely be happy to stay where they are and take what comes to them as well.