OFFICIAL POSTDRAFT REVIEWS & POLLS

[woodbuck27]

I studied this thread very carefully this evening and all I can say is that Ted Thompson has placed a ton of pressure on Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff for this seasons schedule.

Ted's way. To draft this year to improve on our ST effort which was the worst in the NFL. Does that cut it when we had so much need on our offense?

An offense that's running game finished in the bottom third of the NFL last season. Now with the added pressure of the loss of a our #1 RB Ahman Green.

I would have preferred that TT had made a real effort to build some momentum this season for our team. Is his manner not like the man that white wash's his house by adding more water to the paint? We needed more paint added to the water.

This thread certainly doesn't give the ring of applause for Ted"s efforts. His way to water down the draft by trading down, when certain talented prospects as starters, are right in front of him (see pick #47) and for what? Another 6th round pick.

Does that paints a picture of him as a man that is indecisive (way too careful) and certaimly neglectful of the conditions presented by the team he had entering the draft.

In that 6th round he went with two inside linebackers. Why?

When we already have Nick Barnett extended and the jury still out on Abdul Hodge. Couldn't he have found a better position prospect (pick) for our team than going 2X at ILB? I can't find against the pick for Crosby and more than likely he'll be a starter on ST"s but two picks at ILB doesn"t make sense.

What do we have in Ted Thompson's personality?

Is he a GM that likes to draft the underdog? How many GM"s go for the fella that has had a troubled past (GOD love them all) or the college player with a history of adversity through injury.

I'm only going to say that we didn"t need a DT in the first round.

Justin Harrell may be very special but we had specific needs or a spot for that #16 pick. Harrell certainly looks like a young player that will take time to develop, if he can remain healthy. and given his history the risk is huge.

Otherwise there was the place for Ted to make a move to either trade up to get a BB or grab Brady Quinn and make a slash deal for him. Cleveland was hungry for this QB.

Ted went with a need pick in RB (Brandon Jackson) in the second that only started one season and came out to the NFL too early by many observers.

This RB may be a helluva back (from watching the video). He gets to the outside pretty good and he can run around defensive players in a crowd. He has break away speed. Could Ted have used that #47 for a better RB? That is now moot as we have Jackson and another prospecct at ILB.

Comment woodbuck27:

We have learned that one of those ILB's will be tried at FB and the other on the outside at LBer.

There are questions about Ted"s choices in the third of WR James Jones and SS (tweener) Aaron Rouse but they certainly were also of the need category. They will be wait a see"s. Both of these guys look decent on video.

Another trade down in the fourth fr. 112 to 119 with the Steelers nets us OT Allen Barbre and TT takes care of depth in the trenchs with attention to both lines after picking at DT in the first round. Barbre will be a developmentle project. We are seeing a decline in LT Chad Clifton and it"s his knees which isn"t good.

So how was that first day? It"s a crap shoot. I at least believe that Ted Thompson put alot of thought in his picks and all we can hope for is his success.

I will not comment much on the day two picks, but it appears that Ted is being lauded with astuteness for picking our new kicker Mason Crosby. Personally I can't see where he gets all the praise for selecting David Clowney in the fifth round. I'm only an NFL fan that reads well and can try to gain all I can in assessing a player further with available video. I am to date not impressed with the Clowney pick. That may change.

Let's never give up hope. Let"s pray for Ted"s success.

GO PACKERS !

[Scott Campbell]

In that 6th round he went with two inside linebackers. Why?

The Boise State guy is projected as a tight end.

[TopHat]

GOOD!

Woodbuck27, your draft review comments are pretty good. I found the data gathering along with the various sites to be an informative sports journey about the Pack and its future.

[Scott Campbell]

Harrell certainly looks like a young player that will take time to develop, if he can remain healthy. and given his history the risk is huge.

I could see the injury concern if he was coming off a torn ACL. But this biceps thing should not be a chronic problem.

[Bretsky]

At 37, Favre simply isn't the playmaker he once was. Yet, Thompson is still trying to surround him with good but not great skill players. He doesn't seem to understand that Favre needs more help than he once did. By refusing Saturday to trade for Cleveland's first-round pick in 2008, Thompson showed he wants to win now. That's why it's curious that he didn't give Favre more help. If Favre is going to be the quarterback, why not give him the weapons he needs at this point in his career?
Wolf has said often that his biggest regret is not putting enough weapons around Favre during his prime. Thompson is doing the same thing at a time when Favre needs them more than ever.


spot on analysis

I'm still baffled as to why TT would not take an extra 1st next year if it was offered.

[Bretsky]

The regular season is four months away, so perhaps it’s too soon to begin targeting the Green Bay Packers’ potential problems. Who can say what hidden roster gem might emerge and make a major impact? But staring at the upcoming season from a distance, there’s one nagging issue that can’t be ignored. Assuming no significant free agents are signed, a giant question mark looms over the Packers’ offense. This is a team that finished in the bottom third of the NFL in scoring last year and froze up in the red zone. This is a team that lost featured running back Ahman Green. This is a team that signed no free agents on the offensive side of the ball. How are the Packers going to score this season? If they ranked near the bottom of the league last year, what’s going to change in 2007 with quarterback Brett Favre a year older and no experienced workhorse ready to step in and replace Green?

Didn't somebody tell this guy that Green stinks and the recipe for improvement on offense is from within

[vince]

Woody, you know I respect your contributions here, so I want to debate some of the arguments you made...

To draft this year to improve on our ST effort which was the worst in the NFL. Does that cut it when we had so much need on our offense?

An offense that finished in the bottom third of the NFL last season. An offense certainly suspect after a poor showing in it's running game last season.

The FACT is that Green Bay finished 9th in the NFL in total offense last year. By my math, that's the TOP THIRD, not the bottom third, as you misrepresent to support your argument. http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NF...L/2006/regular

In that 6th round he went with two inside linebackers. Why?

It is documented that Desmond Bishop is projected to be tried out at the strong side position and that Korey Hall will be converted to fullback, a position his skill set fits well with and one in which he has excelled at in the past. Neither is expected to play inside linebacker as you assert. And regardless of whether these two FORMER inside linebackers end up starting in '07, these two project to enhance special teams - an important area you acknowledge the team WAS THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE LAST YEAR. A pretty important area to address I'd say.

I'm only going to say that we didn"t need a DT in the first round. Justin Harrell may be very special but we had specific needs or a spot for that #16 pick.

Green Bay finished 12th in the league last year in total defense and 13th in the league in rushing defense. By my math, those statistics fall in the MIDDLE THIRD of the league - obviously, worse than the 9th ranked offense production. http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NF...L/2006/regular

Further, TT has stated time and again that - especially at the top of the draft, it's about getting maximum value. If Ted & Co. targets Jackson to be just as good as (or better) Irons or others, and Jackson can safely be projected to the late second round - then why on earth would we draft a RB in the first round? And if the Packers rate the available receivers much lower in terms of value, and believe they can get a potentially productive receiver that fits our completion-oriented passing attack later in the draft - which they did - why would they lessen the value they can attain at the 16 spot?

Obviously, the Packers (and many other teams, we've found out) believe that Harrell is expected to take the run defense to a higher level. And that, many would argue is the FIRST key to success in the NFL. Many believe that the BEST place to build the foundation of a winner is by developing an elite defensive line. Ted & Co. obviously believe that as well.

Ted went with a need pick in RB (Brandon Jackson) in the second that only started one season and came out to the NFL early by many observers.

Could Ted have used that #47 for a better RB? That is now moot as we have Jackson.

I'd say that the evidence shows pretty clearly that Ted & Co. felt like Jackson is ideally suited to running in the ZBS and there was no other back available at 47 that is as skilled as he - so the decision to trade down in that scenario would therefore be a BEAUTIFUL one.

I will not comment much on the day two picks but it appears that Ted is being lauded with astuteness for picking our new kicker Mason Crosby. Personally I can't see where he gets all the praise for selecting David Clowney in the fifth round.

With your well-documented bias against Ted & Co., I can see how you might have trouble seeing that.

[woodbuck27]

Woody, you know I respect your contributions here, so I want to debate some of the arguments you made...

To draft this year to improve on our ST effort which was the worst in the NFL. Does that cut it when we had so much need on our offense?

An offense that finished in the bottom third of the NFL last season. An offense certainly suspect after a poor showing in it's running game last season.

The FACT is that Green Bay finished 9th in the NFL in total offense last year. By my math, that's the TOP THIRD, not the bottom third, as you misrepresent to support your argument. http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NF...L/2006/regular

Comment woodbuck27:

Yes Vince that is correct.

I meant to emphasize that our running game was in the lower third of all NFL teams. Nine teams rushed for fewer yards than the Packers.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2006/regular

In that 6th round he went with two inside linebackers. Why?

It is documented that Desmond Bishop is projected to be tried out at the strong side position and that Korey Hall will be converted to fullback, a position his skill set fits well with and one in which he has excelled at in the past. Neither is expected to play inside linebacker as you assert. And regardless of whether these two FORMER inside linebackers end up starting in '07, these two project to enhance special teams - an important area you acknowledge the team WAS THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE LAST YEAR. A pretty important area to address I'd say.

Comment woodbuck27: Yes Vince. This is what I'm finding out now by proposing these questions.

I'm only going to say that we didn"t need a DT in the first round. Justin Harrell may be very special but we had specific needs or a spot for that #16 pick.

Green Bay finished 12th in the league last year in total defense and 13th in the league in rushing defense. By my math, those statistics fall in the MIDDLE THIRD of the league - obviously, worse than the 9th ranked offense production. http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NF...L/2006/regular

Further, TT has stated time and again that - especially at the top of the draft, it's about getting maximum value. If Ted & Co. targets Jackson to be just as good as (or better) Irons or others, and Jackson can safely be projected to the late second round - then why on earth would we draft a RB in the first round? And if the Packers rate the available receivers much lower in terms of value, and believe they can get a potentially productive receiver that fits our completion-oriented passing attack later in the draft - which they did - why would they lessen the value they can attain at the 16 spot?

Obviously, the Packers (and many other teams, we've found out) believe that Harrell is expected to take the run defense to a higher level. And that, many would argue is the FIRST key to success in the NFL. Many believe that the BEST place to build the foundation of a winner is by developing an elite defensive line. Ted & Co. obviously believe that as well.

Comment woodbuck27:

Your analysis of the Harrel pick is sound Vince.

I know clearly what TT believes Vince and he backs himself up on the Harrell pick.

He also admits that he had about five offers to trade down fr. pick#16. We are well aware that he passed on Quinn that would have possibly netted us another first next season in a trade with the Browns.

I question that missed opportunity.

We know that it appears that option or others were not seized because of TT"s 'love' for DT Justin Harrell.

Ted went with a need pick in RB (Brandon Jackson) in the second that only started one season and came out to the NFL early by many observers.

Could Ted have used that #47 for a better RB? That is now moot as we have Jackson.

I'd say that the evidence shows pretty clearly that Ted & Co. felt like Jackson is ideally suited to running in the ZBS and there was no other back available at 47 that is as skilled as he - so the decision to trade down in that scenario would therefore be a BEAUTIFUL one.

Comment woodbuck27:

I'm warming up to the choice of RB's Brandon Jackson, Vince. I watched all the video I could find on him. My comments in an earlier post reflect positives on this young RB. I really want him to be the fit that TT believes he will be.

As I look at the first day of the draft. The only real difficulty I have is with TT"s play on #16. That first Rd. pick may have been more valuable than we ever believed it could be. A successful negotiation with the Browns after selecting Brady Quinn looks like the best case scenario 'in hindsight' to me.

I will not comment much on the day two picks but it appears that Ted is being lauded with astuteness for picking our new kicker Mason Crosby. Personally I can't see where he gets all the praise for selecting David Clowney in the fifth round.

With your well-documented bias against Ted & Co., I can see how you might have trouble seeing that.

Comment woodbuck27:

I am saying that I see Mason Crosby in the 6th Rd. as possibly being a steal for TT. I certainly like that pick Vince. I now have more insight in his reasons for going 2X at ILB also in the 6th.

I'm not all over the pick of WR David Clowney. I may need more time to get used to this 5th Rd. pick and maybe I'll never like it.

As far as Ted Thompson overall. He certainly hasn't advertised himself to me in a manner that causes me to want to be a huge fan of his. It's not really happening yet.

I'm just like alot of other Packer fans that are wilting under the weight of just all he is. Sadly what do we have but this?

We will wait until the Packer record on the field speaks for itself.

[woodbuck27]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6767102

How top draft picks rated as preps

Jamie Newberg / Scout.com

Let's take a close look at the top 100 draft picks from this weekend and see where they were ranked coming out of high school for their respective classes of 2002, '03 and '04.

Here is a look at the top 100 players taken in this past weekend's NFL Draft. How did these players rank coming out of high school? You can see that and more below.

Most of these players were members of the class of '02, '03 and '04. Some of their peers, like Ernie Sims, Mario Williams and Reggie Bush were selected in last year's NFL Draft.

1. JaMarcus Russell (QB — '03) LSU
Oakland
Five-star, No. 4 ranked quarterback, No. 14 prospect overall, National Top 100

2. Calvin Johnson (WR — '04) Georgia Tech
Detroit
Five-star, No. 3 ranked WR, No. 14 prospect overall, National Top 100

3. Joe Thomas (OT — '03) Wisconsin
Cleveland
Five-star, No. 5 ranked OL, No. 2 ranked OT, No. 45 prospect overall, National Top 100

4. Gaines Adams (DE — '02) Clemson
Tampa Bay
Two-star, un-ranked (prep school)

5. Levi Brown (OT — '02) Penn State
Arizona
Four-star, No. 24 ranked DT

6. LaRon Landry (S — '03) LSU
Washington
Four-star, No. 10 ranked S

7. Adrian Peterson (RB — '04) Oklahoma
Minnesota
Five-star, No. 1 ranked RB, No. 3 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

8. Jamaal Anderson (DE — '04) Arkansas
Atlanta
Two-star wide receiver

9. Ted Ginn Jr., (WR — '04) Ohio State
Miami
Five-star, No. 1 ranked CB, No. 4 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100, Scout.com National Player of the Year

Amobi Okoye went from unrated high school star to first-round NFL Draft pick. (Alan Diaz / Associated Press)

10. Amobi Okoye (DT — '03) Louisville
Houston
Two-star, un-ranked DT

11. Patrick Willis (LB — '03) Ole Miss
San Francisco
Two-star un-ranked LB

12. Marshawn Lynch (RB — '04) Cal
Buffalo
Four-star, No. 16 ranked RB

13. Adam Carriker (DE — '02) Nebraska
St. Louis
Two-star, un-ranked DE

14. Darrelle Revis (CB — '04) Pittsburgh
N.Y. Jets
Three-star, No. 36 ranked CB

15. Lawrence Timmons (LB — '04) Florida State
Pittsburgh
Four-star, No. 10 ranked LB, No. 93 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

16. Justin Harrell (DT — '04) Tennessee
Green Bay
Three-star, No. 35 ranked OL

17. Jarvis Moss (DE — '03) Florida
Denver
Five-star, No. 2 ranked DE, No. 13 prospect overall, National Top 100

18. Leon Hall (CB — '03) Michigan
Cincinnati
Four-star, No. 7 ranked CB

19. Michael Griffin (S — '03) Texas
Tennessee
Three-star, No. 26 ranked CB

20. Aaron Ross (CB — '02) Texas
N.Y. Giants
Four-star, No. 11 ranked CB

21. Reggie Nelson (S — '03) Florida
Jacksonville
Five-star, No. 2 ranked S, No. 38 prospect overall, National Top 100

22. Brady Quinn (QB — '03) Notre Dame
Cleveland
Four-star, No. 9 ranked QB, No. 95 overall, National Top 100

23. Dwayne Bowe (WR — '03) LSU
Kansas City
Four-star, No. 9 ranked WR

24. Brandon Meriweather (S — '02) Miami
New England
Four-star, No. 27 ranked S

25. Jon Beason (LB — '03) Miami
Carolina
Four-star, No. 16 ranked S

26. Anthony Spencer (DE — '02) Purdue
Dallas
Un-ranked DE

27. Robert Meachem (WR — '03) Tennessee
New Orleans
Five-star, No. 5 ranked WR, No. 37 prospect overall, National Top 100

Joe Staley was a tight end coming out of high school. (Central Michigan University / Associated Press)

28. Joe Staley (OT — '03) Central Michigan
San Francisco
Two-star, un-ranked TE

29. Ben Grubbs (OG — '02) Auburn
Baltimore
Un-ranked DE

30. Craig Davis (WR — '03) LSU
San Diego
Four-star, No. 15 ranked WR

31. Greg Olsen (TE — '03) Miami
Chicago
Five-star, No. 1 ranked TE, No. 20 overall prospect, National Top 100

32. Anthony Gonzalez (WR — '03) Ohio State
Indianapolis
Four-star, No. 8 ranked CB prospect, No. 97 overall, National Top 100

33. Alan Branch (DT — '04) Michigan
Arizona
Three-star, No. 23 ranked DT

34. Paul Posluszny (LB — '03) Penn State
Buffalo
Four-star, No. 20 ranked LB

35. Arron Sears (OG — '03) Tennessee
Tampa Bay
Four-star, No. 34 ranked OL

36. Kevin Kolb (QB — '03) Houston
Philadelphia
Three-star, No. 55 ranked QB

37. Eric Weddle (S — '03) Utah
San Diego
Two-star, un-ranked WR

38. Zach Miller (TE — '04) Arizona State
Oakland
Five-star, No. 1 ranked TE, No. 23 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

39. Justin Blalock (OG — '02) Texas
Atlanta
Five-star, No. 1 ranked OL, No. 17 ranked overall, National Top 100

40. John Beck (QB — '00) BYU
Miami
NR

41. Chris Houston (CB — '03) Arkansas
Atlanta
Three-star, No. 63 ranked CB

42. Tony Ugoh (OT — '02) Arkansas
Indianapolis
Four-star, No. 10 ranked OL, No. 8 ranked OT, No. 73 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

43. Drew Stanton (QB — '02) Michigan State
Detroit
Four-star, No. 17 ranked QB

44. Sidney Rice (WR — '04) South Carolina
Minnesota
Three-star, No. 40 ranked WR

45. Dwayne Jarrett (WR — '04) USC
Carolina
Four-star, No. 7 ranked WR, No. 37 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

LaMarr Woodley was among the top-rated players in the class of 2003. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)

46. LaMarr Woodley (DE — '03) Michigan
Pittsburgh
Five star, No. 1 ranked DE, No. 2 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

47. David Harris (LB — '02) Michigan
N.Y. Jets
Two-star, un-ranked LB

48. Justin Durant (LB — '03) Hampton
Jacksonville
Two-star, No. 122 ranked LB

49. Kenny Irons (RB — '02) Auburn
Cincinnati
Three-star, No. 51 ranked LB

50. Chris Henry (RB — '03) Arizona
Tennessee
Two-star, No. 90 ranked RB

51. Steve Smith (WR — '03) USC
N.Y. Giants
Four-star, No. 6 ranked WR, No. 59 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

52. Brian Leonard (FB — '02) Rutgers
St. Louis
Three-star, No. 38 ranked LB

53. Eric Wright (CB — '03) UNLV
Cleveland
Two-star, No. 75 ranked CB

54. Turk McBride (DT — '03) Tennessee
Kansas City
Four-star, No. 6 ranked DE, No. 42 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

55. Josh Wilson (CB — '03) Maryland
Seattle
Two-star, No. 105 ranked CB

56. Tim Crowder (DE — '03) Texas
Denver
Four-star, No. 11 ranked DE, No. 70 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

57. Victor Abiamiri (DE — '03) Notre Dame
Philadelphia
Four-star, No. 7 ranked DE, No. 48 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

58. Ikaika Alama-Francis (DE) Hawaii
Detroit
NR

59. Ryan Kalil (C — '03) USC
Carolina
Three-star, No. 59 ranked OL

60. Samson Satele (C — '02) Hawaii
Miami
Two star OL

61. Gerald Alexander (S) Boise State
Detroit
NR

62. Daniel Bazuin (DE) Central Michigan
Chicago
NR

63. Brandon Jackson (RB — '04) Nebraska
Green Bay Two-star, No. 89 ranked RB

64. Sabby Piscitelli (S) Oregon State
Tampa Bay
NR

65. Quentin Moses (DE — '02) Georgia
Oakland
Two-star, unranked DE

66. Usama Young (CB — '03) Kent State
New Orleans
Two-star, un-ranked S

67. James Marten (OT) Boston College
Dallas
NR

68. Quincy Black (OLB — '02) New Mexico
Tampa Bay
Two-star, un-ranked DE

69. Buster Davis (LB — '02) FSU
Arizona
Four-star, No. 7 ranked linebacker, No. 55 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

70. Ryan Harris (OT — '03) Notre Dame
Denver
Four-star, No. 6 ranked OL, No. 3 ranked OT, No. 50 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

71. Lorenzo Booker (RB — '02) FSU
Miami
Five-star, No. 1 ranked RB, No. 1 prospect overall, National Top 100

72. Marcus McCauley (CB — '02) Fresno State
Minnesota
Two-star, un-ranked S

73. Jacoby Jones (WR — '04) Lane
Houston
Two-star, un-ranked RB

74. Yamon Figurs (WR — '02) Kansas State
Baltimore
Two-star, un-ranked WR

75. Laurent Robinson (WR) Illinois State
Atlanta
NR

76. Jason Hill (WR — '03) Washington State
San Francisco
Two-star, un-ranked S

77. Matt Spaeth (TE — '02) Minnesota
Pittsburgh
Two-star, un-ranked DE

78. James Jones (WR) San Jose State
Green Bay NR

79. Mike Walker (WR — '03) UCF
Jacksonville
Three-star, No. 84 ranked WR

80. Paul Williams (WR — '02) Fresno State
Tennessee
Two-star, un-ranked WR

81. Jay Alford (DT - 02) Penn State
N.Y. Giants
Three-star, No. 32 ranked DT

82. Demarcus Tyler (DT - 03) N.C. State
Kansas City
Three-star, No. 29 ranked DT

83. Charles Johnson (DE — '04) Georgia
Carolina
Five-star, No. 2 ranked DE, No. 8 prospect overall, National Top 100

84. Jonathan Wade (CB — '02) Tennessee
St. Louis
Four-star, No. 18 ranked CB

85. Brandon Mebane (DT — '03) Cal
Seattle
Four-star, No. 13 ranked DT

86. Marshal Yanda (OG) Iowa
Baltimore
NR

87. Stewart Bradley (OLB) Nebraska
Philadelphia
NR

88. Andy Alleman (OG — '02) Akron
New Orleans
Three-star, No. 75 ranked DE


89. Aaron Rouse (S — '02) Virginia Tech
Green Bay Three-star, No. 59 ranked S


90. Tony Hunt (RB — '03) Penn State
Philadelphia
Three-star, No. 29 ranked RB


91. Mario Henderson (OT — '03) FSU
Oakland
Three-star, No. 51 ranked OL

Trent Edwards was one of the most sought-after quarterback prospects coming out of high school.

92. Trent Edwards (QB — '02) Stanford
Buffalo
Five-star, No. 2 ranked quarterback, No. 7 prospect overall, National Top 100

93. Garrett Wolfe (RB — '02) Northern Illinois
Chicago
Two-star, un-ranked RB

94. Michael Okwo (OLB — '04) Stanford
Chicago
Four-star, No. 16 ranked LB

95. Daymeion Hughes (CB) Cal
Indianapolis
NR

96. Anthony Waters (LB — '02) Clemson
San Diego
Three-star, No. 79 ranked LB

97. Ray McDonald (DE — '02) Florida
San Francisco
Three-star, No. 39 ranked DE

98. Quin Pitcock (DT — '02) Ohio State
Indianapolis
Four-star, No. 7 defensive tackle, No. 46 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

99. Johnnie Lee Higgins (WR — '02) UTEP
Oakland
Two-star, un-ranked WR

100. Michael Bush (RB — '03) Louisville
Oakland
Five-star, No. 1 ranked QB, No. 3 ranked prospect overall, National Top 100

[woodbuck27]

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/10172035

First-round receivers are no sure catch

By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst

(May 8, 2007) -- The 2007 NFL Draft is history and about half of the 32 teams have had their post-draft minicamp. There are great expectations about the young players selected, and while it is time for a little dreaming about what might be down the road, I thought we should look back in order to foresee the future. Wide receiver was a very popular position in the first round this year, so let's start there.

Six wide receivers were selected in the first round, and from the Lions taking the "best player in the draft" in Calvin Johnson to Miami picking the slightly injured Ted Ginn, every team felt it got a great player. Dwayne Bowe in Kansas City, Robert Meachem in New Orleans, Craig Davis in San Diego and Anthony Gonzalez in Indianapolis are all creating a buzz, but history says they have a rough road ahead of them.

The Dolphins hope Ted Ginn will live up to his draft position.
From 2000 to 2006, there were 31 wide receivers selected in the first round and history says plenty about what to believe is going to happen to the Class of 2007.

The first reality is that the receivers have precious few years to deliver or they will be gone. They may get another chance or two down the road, but the team that drafted them will move on quickly if they struggle.

Keep in mind that the six teams this year will spend close to $50 million on these players, but is it money well spent? What are the chances of seeing a return on their investment?

From 2003 back to 2000, only three of the 17 receivers drafted in the first round are still with the team that drafted them.

Andre Johnson (Houston), Bryant Johnson (Arizona) and Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis) still collect a paycheck from the team that had so many wonderful things to say about them in the days following their selection.

Here is the list of first-round wide receivers from 2000-2005 that are no longer with the team that drafted them. It's not a pretty group and provides a sobering reality check about what may lay ahead for the Class of 2007.

Some are still playing and a few are starting, but not where they were selected.

2000: Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, Sylvester Morris, R.J. Soward, Plaxico Burress
2001: David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Freddie Mitchell, Santana Moss
2002: Donte' Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Javon Walker
2003: Charles Rogers
2004: Rashaun Woods
2005: Mike Williams

This is a big year for a number of receivers from 2004 and 2005 who really have to take a big jump or they will be the next wave of victims. The teams are already bringing in competition for them.

Troy Williamson struggles to catch the ball in Minnesota, so the Vikings selected Sidney Rice in the second round. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have a new coach with the Falcons, who signed Joe Horn and drafted Laurent Robinson in the third round.

I give the Lions a lot of credit for not looking back at the Mike Williams and Charles Rogers selections and taking Calvin Johnson. If they're right about Johnson and he's a great player, they are set for a long time.

As bad as the picture looks for wide receivers, the first round of the 2000-2006 draft's also produced Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne. Recent history says there is a 13 percent chance of drafting a great player at the wide receiver position in the first round and having him on your roster.

But history also says there's a 26 percent chance a first-round wide receiver will be out of football in the next six years.

Finally, it takes time to train a wide receiver.

Route running needs to be developed and learning to release off the line versus press coverage, recognizing coverages, and the ability to catch the ball all take time. But do teams have the time?

There's no chance all six teams that took a wide receiver this year will wait for their prize pupil to make it on their roster.

If they do shine in the next few years, they will want more money than most teams are willing to spend to keep them. Javon Walker got out of Green Bay, Plaxico Burress bolted from Pittsburgh and Santana Moss was traded from the Jets.

Here's the survival rate over the past six years for first-round receivers that are still with the team that drafted them.

2006: 100 percent (1 of 1)
2005: 83 percent (5 of 6)
2004: 86 percent (6 of 7)
2003: 66 percent (2 of 3)
2002: 0 percent (0 of 3)
2001: 17 percent (1 of 6)
2000: 0 percent (0 of 5)

[woodbuck27]

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/10165968

Players drafted by conferences:

SEC: 41 in 2007; 661 since 1990

Big Ten: 32 in 2007; 582 since 1990

ACC: 31 in 2007; 457 since 1990

Big 12: 28 in 2007; 324 since 1997

Pac-10: 28 in 2007; 571 since 1990

WAC: 17 in 2007

Big East: 16 in 2007

Independents: 9 in 2007

Mountain West: 9 in 2007

MAC: 8 in 2007

Conference USA: 8 in 2007

Sun Belt: 5 in 2007

Atlantic 10: 4 in 2007

[The Leaper]

Too bad the expert's grades don't get reviewed like they should.

Not sure what the experts will do in 3 years if Barbre is starting at LT after Clifton's retirement, Harrell is a John Henderson type DT, Clowney is our deep threat as a #3 WR, Crosby is one of the best PKs in the league, Harris is a decent backup TE and good long snapper, Jackson is our starting RB, and Rouse is our starting S. They likely won't get called out like they should--for lambasting the Packers the day after the draft. Hell, most of them don't say anything about screwing up the Bills draft grade last year. They were considered to have a lousy draft--while it looks like they might have one of the top few drafts in the league last year (with upwards of 7 current or near future starters).

Grading a draft is really impossible at this point...OUTSIDE of measuring the immediate impact. That is what hurts Green Bay in this draft. Harrell is not going to make a huge immediate impact on a team with a rather deep DL. Jackson and Jones aren't blue chip talents, and likely will take time to develop.

For a team on the rise at the end of 2006, you would like to see the team take a few chances here and there to bump the team forward into playoff contention. You would like to see the team be aggressive in trying to fill some glaring holes at WR, TE and SS.

Instead, Thompson took a RB from Nebraska...which hasn't historically produced solid NFL backs. Instead, Thompson took a WR who could not even garner first team honors in the pitiful WAC. Instead, Thompson more or less ignored the TE position.

Yeah...we need to wait to see whether or not this talent will pan out. However, the hyper-conservative approach typically does not bring a franchise championship glory. You have to be willing to stick your neck out there sometimes as a GM...just like Sherman had to be willing to stick his nuts out when necessary in the postseason.

I'm not convinced that Thompson doesn't share some of the same drawbacks as a GM that Sherman had as a head coach...in other words, Thompson may be a solid GM, but one who will struggle to take a team to the next level and be a true title contender. While he did a good job acquiring talent in Seattle, the team didn't get over the hump until they dismissed Thompson and made some personnel moves that were a little more risky. Can Thompson pull the trigger on a "risky" move? I highly doubt it.

[woodbuck27]

I'd rather that he reflect this:

A little of this and a little of that not all this.

Ted Thompson isn't flexible. If he doesn"t get there I really feel that we will not come together under his tenure as our GM.

[MJZiggy]

I'm not convinced that Thompson doesn't share some of the same drawbacks as a GM that Sherman had as a head coach...in other words, Thompson may be a solid GM, but one who will struggle to take a team to the next level and be a true title contender. While he did a good job acquiring talent in Seattle, the team didn't get over the hump until they dismissed Thompson and made some personnel moves that were a little more risky. Can Thompson pull the trigger on a "risky" move? I highly doubt it.

Seattle didn't dismiss Thompson. Harlan hired him away from them.

[BooHoo]

Hey, I thought the Pack identified TT as the man to hire so he left Seattle. I don't remember he was unemployed when we hired him.