The Key Questions For This Season's Success

[HarveyWallbangers]

BTW, Green Bay wasn't the only team using max protect. I just read an article about how the Rams (supposedly, with a pretty good OL) went to max protect a lot against the Lions last year--after the Lions had shown a good pass rush in early season games. We didn't max protect all of the time, and situations dictated when we used it. A lot of times teams will max protect when they want to get their receivers in deeper routes. The OL needs to improve, but I think people may be overstating the max protect schemes a bit. I'd like to see the percentages again on how often we max protected. The TEs, RBs, and secondary receivers combined for close to 200 of the 350 completions, so obviously we didn't go to max protect on a majority of plays.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Passer rating is a joke no matter how you analyze it. Here is my passer rating:

I tend to agree that passer rating is overrated. A lot of elements out of the QB's control affect it, and it "seems" to favor certain types of QBs. Personally, it seems to favor WCO QBs with a high completion %. Still, completion % is a big part of it.

[Patler]

Passer rating is a joke no matter how you analyze it. Here is my passer rating:

1) Who won
2) Did the QB do anything to help the team
3) Did the QB do anything to hurt the team

2 = perfect.

So by your formula, Grossman was a pretty darn good QB. #1 was high, all in all games with "yes" for #2 was probably more than for #3. Bearman will be pleased!

I also am not a big fan of the QB rating calculation. All you have to do is look at the list in order, and instincts tell you something is wrong with the calculation. It has been used for a long time, and was modified once quite a while ago. I have wondered why it has not been toyed with since.

[Patler]

Passer rating is a joke no matter how you analyze it. Here is my passer rating:

I tend to agree that passer rating is overrated. A lot of elements out of the QB's control affect it, and it "seems" to favor certain types of QBs. Personally, it seems to favor WCO QBs with a high completion %. Still, completion % is a big part of it.

If you are in a WC offense, and have a coach who likes to pass in the red zone, you will have a good QB rating.

[Packnut]

Favre

".....All of these things will contribute to Favre playing "smarter" football."

Receivers drop passes; that's part of the game. But Favre needs to work on playing smarter - consistently -in order for the team to win.

Well, according to that logic, so are picks. Your views on Favre and the QB position in general are way off. It's a TEAM game. Even Manning has 2 outstanding WR's and a very good run game. You wanna put all the responsibility on Favre which is a load of BS.

It's pretty easy to see what's coming from you in the future. If there is no improvment in the offense and we struggle in the RZ again, your gonna use Favre as the scape-goat instead of putting the blame where it really belongs which is squarely on the GM's shoulders.

Then again, if blaming Favre for the offense floats your boat, by all means go ahead. However, not taking into account things like leading the league in dropped passes or no TE production, using max protect schemes and lack of any consistent running game make your "Favre needing to play smarter" opinion look very foolish.

[Packnut]

Max Protect

BTW, Green Bay wasn't the only team using max protect. I just read an article about how the Rams (supposedly, with a pretty good OL) went to max protect a lot against the Lions last year--after the Lions had shown a good pass rush in early season games. We didn't max protect all of the time, and situations dictated when we used it. A lot of times teams will max protect when they want to get their receivers in deeper routes. The OL needs to improve, but I think people may be overstating the max protect schemes a bit. I'd like to see the percentages again on how often we max protected. The TEs, RBs, and secondary receivers combined for close to 200 of the 350 completions, so obviously we didn't go to max protect on a majority of plays.

MM was quoted stating they used max protect a good majority of the time. His version of max protect was keeping either the RB or TE in to block and he stated that there were several times he kept both in. In a 1 back-1 TE set, that would still give you 3 WR's to throw to. Therefore the secondary WR stats you include in your post would not count. If you take them away and focus on the TE/RB passing stats, you get a more accurate view.

[Patler]

Re: Favre

".....All of these things will contribute to Favre playing "smarter" football."

Receivers drop passes; that's part of the game. But Favre needs to work on playing smarter - consistently -in order for the team to win.

Well, according to that logic, so are picks. Your views on Favre and the QB position in general are way off. It's a TEAM game. Even Manning has 2 outstanding WR's and a very good run game. You wanna put all the responsibility on Favre which is a load of BS.

It's pretty easy to see what's coming from you in the future. If there is no improvment in the offense and we struggle in the RZ again, your gonna use Favre as the scape-goat instead of putting the blame where it really belongs which is squarely on the GM's shoulders.

Then again, if blaming Favre for the offense floats your boat, by all means go ahead. However, not taking into account things like leading the league in dropped passes or no TE production, using max protect schemes and lack of any consistent running game make your "Favre needing to play smarter" opinion look very foolish.

So Favre is to shoulder none of the blame? Its all TT?
Not the coaches?
not the players?
Not the future Hall of Famer?

I suppose even if Favre were to fall off the ledge and be absolutely horrible you could blame that on TT, because TT is responsible for not having replaced him on the roster.

In reality, not everything is TT's fault, and some things are Favre's responsibility. Like not throwing deep down the middle of the defense late in a play, which is a bad decision virtually all of the time. Favre did it several times last year for interceptions, and even got an earful from MM once on TV for doing it. How is that TT's fault? How is it not Favre's fault?

I think to some extent Favre did control himself a little better last year. He needs to do it again this year, and maybe even control himself a bit more, for several reasons:

1. The team isn't good enough to make up for his mistakes most of the time.
2. Favre isn't nearly as likely to make the unbelievable play as he was in the past. Like it or not, his big play ability has declined. Therefore, his risk-taking does not have positive results as often as it used to, and he needs to adapt accordingly. That's not a criticism. just a recognition that he is older (even just plain OLD in football terms!)

[Packnut]

Max protect

Here are the facts on max protect according to MM. Note the paragraph about MM stating "MOST OF THE TIME" in regards to max protect. I would say that backs up my point about max protect the MAJORITY of the time.

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THIS STORY



Coach aims to get Favre on target
QB's decision-making the focus for McCarthy
By TOM SILVERSTEIN
tsilverstein@journalsentinel.com
Posted: March 28, 2007
Phoenix - Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy won some battles last season getting quarterback Brett Favre to play more efficiently in his version of the West Coast offense.

Packers/NFL


Photo/Mark Hoffman

Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy would like Brett Favre to improve his QB decision-making.

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Buy a link hereBut the fight isn't over.

As he embarks on a second full season as Favre's head coach, McCarthy is focused on improving the quarterback's decision-making and overall efficiency.

McCarthy made significant headway with Favre last year, getting him to lower his interceptions from 29 to 18 despite an increase in attempts from the previous season, but he got slightly less production and saw a significant drop in completion percentage.

In the West Coast offense, coaches aim to have their quarterback complete 60% of his passes, and for the 13 seasons since Mike Holmgren brought the system to Green Bay, Favre had only twice completed less than 59%.

The 56% he completed last season was a career-low and the 55.6% the team completed ranked 27th in the league. There were many factors involved in those numbers, not the least of which were a league-high 43 drops and an inability to keep opposing defenses on their toes with a productive running game.

But Favre always has controlled the reins of the offense, and McCarthy will start with him in an attempt to make the passing attack more efficient, especially inside the opponents' 20-yard line where the Packers failed too often.

"He's part of the improvement in the completion percentage," McCarthy said Wednesday at the annual NFL owners meetings. "We need to get that up and quarterback is obviously a part of that. We dropped the ball too much and he did have a number of (different) receivers travel through.

"That's part of it, and frankly so is it being Year 1 (of his tenure). You can always look to improve your decision-making. You're always trying to improve that year to year. We need to improve in that area. We can't (complete) 56%. That's not what we're looking for."

In fairness to Favre, if the receivers had caught roughly half the passes they dropped last season, his completion percentage would have been better than 59%. And most of the time, McCarthy kept in seven blockers to protect his three rookie starting offensive linemen, leaving Favre fewer options.

Still, the increasing impatience Favre has shown over the years showed through in games in which the Packers fell behind. Of his 18 interceptions, 13 came in the second half and 12 came with the Packers trailing. At total of 11 came on first down, a likely indication Favre was trying to get it all back at once.

McCarthy wants to continue working on Favre's decision-making, which McCarthy thinks can improve even though Favre is a 37-year-old quarterback who has seen everything. When Favre returns from his off-season, the molding process will be picked up where it was left off last season.

"The decision interceptions are the ones that kill you because those are the ones that should not happen," McCarthy said. "They're the ones you can definitely fix. You're going to have a ball tipped. You might have a ball dropped. Those things you can't control, but the one thing that is constant year to year, you have to control the decision-making.

"He was much better than the year before, but that's not the goal. We need to improve that area. That's a yearly must in trying to improve."

McCarthy figures he won't have to be as conservative in the passing game this season because his rookie linemen will be stronger and wiser. He has put a major emphasis on strength training this off-season for his young linemen because too often they didn't match up physically with the opposition.

Favre will be greatly aided in his ability to find open receivers if he has the option of throwing to a running back or tight end out of the backfield, which wasn't the case last year when they were kept in to help block. McCarthy hopes to stretch the width of the field by sending his backs out, thereby opening up the middle or offering Favre an outlet.

"It's the most seven-man protection I've ever used, I'm not going to lie," McCarthy said of last season. "So we'll be able to get back to more of the base six-man protections and maybe some of the five-man protections that we have used."

McCarthy also might have the luxury of some added offensive talent to help inject some life into the offense. But even if the Packers select a wide receiver in the first round of the draft, they can't expect him to make that much of an impact.

So someone in the group behind Donald Driver - Greg Jennings, Robert Ferguson, Ruvell Martin, Carlyle Holiday, Shaun Bodiford among them - will have to play beyond expectations. And someone will have to replace tight end David Martin's role as a down-field receiver.

"Yeah, I'd like to add players," McCarthy said. "But I also think you have some young guys that are going to step up. Like I told them, 'A number of you guys have been standing in the back row for a number of reasons: injuries, you didn't get an opportunity, maybe the guy in front of you is a better player right now.

"It's time for you young guys to get in the front row."

And should they make it there, McCarthy intends to have Favre connect with them at a rate befitting of a true West Coast offense.




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From the March 29, 2007 editions of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
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[MJZiggy]

How 'bout we do something crazy, like blaming Favre for inaccurate passes and blaming the receivers when they drop good balls? Franks was a very good red zone threat in 2005, there was no reason to believe he'd be anything else in '06, and yet he treated the ball like a greased pig. That's not the GM's fault, it's Franks' fault. Favre's interceptions are not the GM's fault. More often than not, they're his fault (except of course when a receiver blows a route, in which case it's the receiver's fault). Not having a deep passing threat (or a free agent signing for that matter) does not make receivers drop balls.

[MJZiggy]

Passer rating is a joke no matter how you analyze it. Here is my passer rating:

1) Who won
2) Did the QB do anything to help the team
3) Did the QB do anything to hurt the team

2 = perfect.

So by your formula, Grossman was a pretty darn good QB. #1 was high, all in all games with "yes" for #2 was probably more than for #3. Bearman will be pleased!

I also am not a big fan of the QB rating calculation. All you have to do is look at the list in order, and instincts tell you something is wrong with the calculation. It has been used for a long time, and was modified once quite a while ago. I have wondered why it has not been toyed with since.

Mad?

[wist43]

Favre played great last year - so did Green, especially considering the chaos that was going on around them.

I think it's reasonable to expect that the OL should be better, but that's relative. They HAD TO max protect a disproportionate amount of the time b/c, quite simply, they were incapable of blocking 4 with 5... when they weren't max protecting, they were rolling Favre out, or taking 3 step drops, or chipping with the TE or back, or both.

Even though I think it's reasonable to expect improvement from the OL, I think it's just as reasonable to expect that the RB situation will be worse than last year, and the WR/TE positions will remain largely the same.

People are discounting what Green meant to Favre and to the offense... last year, Green was consistently getting hit in the backfield, and far too often had to break tackles just to get back to the LOS. The Packers don't have any backs on their roster that can get a tough yd... that inability is going to kill an awful lot of drives next year.

That being the case, I expect we'll see about the same production from the offense that we were getting at the end of last year - which was pretty much nothing.

[retailguy]

Re: Max protect

Here are the facts on max protect according to MM. Note the paragraph about MM stating "MOST OF THE TIME" in regards to max protect. I would say that backs up my point about max protect the MAJORITY of the time.

In fairness to Favre, if the receivers had caught roughly half the passes they dropped last season, his completion percentage would have been better than 59%. And most of the time, McCarthy kept in seven blockers to protect his three rookie starting offensive linemen, leaving Favre fewer options.

Still, the increasing impatience Favre has shown over the years showed through in games in which the Packers fell behind. Of his 18 interceptions, 13 came in the second half and 12 came with the Packers trailing. At total of 11 came on first down, a likely indication Favre was trying to get it all back at once.

McCarthy wants to continue working on Favre's decision-making, which McCarthy thinks can improve even though Favre is a 37-year-old quarterback who has seen everything. When Favre returns from his off-season, the molding process will be picked up where it was left off last season.

"The decision interceptions are the ones that kill you because those are the ones that should not happen," McCarthy said. "They're the ones you can definitely fix. You're going to have a ball tipped. You might have a ball dropped. Those things you can't control, but the one thing that is constant year to year, you have to control the decision-making.

"He was much better than the year before, but that's not the goal. We need to improve that area. That's a yearly must in trying to improve."

McCarthy figures he won't have to be as conservative in the passing game this season because his rookie linemen will be stronger and wiser. He has put a major emphasis on strength training this off-season for his young linemen because too often they didn't match up physically with the opposition.

Favre will be greatly aided in his ability to find open receivers if he has the option of throwing to a running back or tight end out of the backfield, which wasn't the case last year when they were kept in to help block. McCarthy hopes to stretch the width of the field by sending his backs out, thereby opening up the middle or offering Favre an outlet.

"It's the most seven-man protection I've ever used, I'm not going to lie," McCarthy said of last season. "So we'll be able to get back to more of the base six-man protections and maybe some of the five-man protections that we have used."

McCarthy also might have the luxury of some added offensive talent to help inject some life into the offense. But even if the Packers select a wide receiver in the first round of the draft, they can't expect him to make that much of an impact.

Harvey,

The bolded points above, plus the games I saw with MY OWN TWO EYES are the reason that I'm talking about MAX Protect.

It was used A LOT more than occasionally.

If the emphasis on weight training doesn't work, this line is SCREWED. They were consistently beaten with a 4 man rush. Bringing the LB's or a safety in, was almost guaranteed pressure for the defense last season.

That can't continue. It simply can't.

[Packnut]

Re: Favre

".....All of these things will contribute to Favre playing "smarter" football."

Receivers drop passes; that's part of the game. But Favre needs to work on playing smarter - consistently -in order for the team to win.

Well, according to that logic, so are picks. Your views on Favre and the QB position in general are way off. It's a TEAM game. Even Manning has 2 outstanding WR's and a very good run game. You wanna put all the responsibility on Favre which is a load of BS.

It's pretty easy to see what's coming from you in the future. If there is no improvment in the offense and we struggle in the RZ again, your gonna use Favre as the scape-goat instead of putting the blame where it really belongs which is squarely on the GM's shoulders.

Then again, if blaming Favre for the offense floats your boat, by all means go ahead. However, not taking into account things like leading the league in dropped passes or no TE production, using max protect schemes and lack of any consistent running game make your "Favre needing to play smarter" opinion look very foolish.

So Favre is to shoulder none of the blame? Its all TT?
Not the coaches?
not the players?
Not the future Hall of Famer?

I suppose even if Favre were to fall off the ledge and be absolutely horrible you could blame that on TT, because TT is responsible for not having replaced him on the roster.

In reality, not everything is TT's fault, and some things are Favre's responsibility. Like not throwing deep down the middle of the defense late in a play, which is a bad decision virtually all of the time. Favre did it several times last year for interceptions, and even got an earful from MM once on TV for doing it. How is that TT's fault? How is it not Favre's fault?

I think to some extent Favre did control himself a little better last year. He needs to do it again this year, and maybe even control himself a bit more, for several reasons:

1. The team isn't good enough to make up for his mistakes most of the time.
2. Favre isn't nearly as likely to make the unbelievable play as he was in the past. Like it or not, his big play ability has declined. Therefore, his risk-taking does not have positive results as often as it used to, and he needs to adapt accordingly. That's not a criticism. just a recognition that he is older (even just plain OLD in football terms!)

As I've stated here several times before, Favre is Favre. He makes throws he should'nt attempt and he does complete throws that no one else could. You take the good with the bad. Also if you really examine his picks, as the article I posted says, most came when trailing.

My point which the article backs up is that there are several things that were out of Favre's hands like the dropped passes and limiting his passing options. Therefore, it's my contention that judging Favre and blaming him for mistakes is the easy way out. Yes, of course sometimes Favre made the wrong decision like all QB's do. Yes he takes chances that he should'nt. But good Lord, that is Brett Favre! That same competitveness that makes him able to throw a laser in a small window, or play hurt when no one else would is also the same competitiveness that makes him try to make a play that he should'nt. You can't take that away from him and expect positive results.

Now as far as your comments about my blaming TT for everything. I'm sure you would not like it if I put words in your mouth so don't do it to me. I have never blamed Thompson for everything. I am on record here stating he has done some good things and made some positive moves. I'm just not a blind follower who takes Teddy's word that all is well. I was a blind follower for a long time-2 decades as a matter of fact in the 70's and 80's and I learned the hard way that following blindly ends in utter disappointment.

For what I hope is the last time I will state my position. I believe Teddy should have made a much more consertive effort to give Favre more weapons. I believe Teddy made a major blunder with Walker that set this team back. I believe Teddy could have made a few FA signings that would have given us a better shot this season and I've already stated for the record that Eric Johnson will have a great season with the Saints. That was the move Teddy blew and we'll see how Johnson does this season compared to our TE's. I'm on record BEFORE MM was hired when I voiced my preference for the Saint's HC. Since he was voted coach of the year, I'd say my opinion on that has been proven correct.

With all that said, I also Believe Teddy did a good job getting us in healthy cap space even if he does'nt use it. I believe he's done a good job of building some depth. He's making a good effort to get better talent in order to improve our pathetic special teams coverage. His FA signing of Woodson was brilliant. Exept for our first pick, I thought he did a good job with the draft this season, and I don't fault the Harrell pick as far as need goes, but rather his extensive injury history.

I am not a Thomspon basher as you have gone out of your way to insinuate, but neither am I blind to the mistakes I believe Teddy has made. I also am not just gonna sit back and watch the Thompson crowd shift the blame this season on #04 when virtually EVERY analyst and media person agree that at this point on paper, Favre does'nt have a whole lot to work with. Of course that can change. May-be the O line is stronger, may-be the new WR's will help. May-be Jennings takes the next step. May-be the running game improves. If these things happen, I'll be the first one to slap Teddy on the back and say I was wrong, but I can't help but wonder if we see the same offense from last season, how many Thompson followers will also step up and admit being wrong?

From what I've seen the excuses are already being planted by a few here. Either it's Favre needing to play smarter, or the schedule is to tough.

[Zool]

Re: Favre

I believe Teddy made a major blunder with Walker that set this team back.

Eric Johnson will have a great season with the Saints.

In hind site #1 is right on the money. I'm not sure how many GM's are going to renegotiate with a WR that had 2 years left on his contract, 1 stud season and was coming off a knee reconstruction, but now that I see the end result I agree. If one of our guys becomes this years Colston, then it wont matter.


#2 He probably should have made a big push for Johnson. If he plays 6 games, he will have better receiving stats than any of our TE's. Johnson signed in N.O. for 1 season. Maybe Johnson didn't want to play in GB. I don't even recall a visit.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Re: Max protect

Harvey,

The bolded points above, plus the games I saw with MY OWN TWO EYES are the reason that I'm talking about MAX Protect.

It was used A LOT more than occasionally.

If the emphasis on weight training doesn't work, this line is SCREWED. They were consistently beaten with a 4 man rush. Bringing the LB's or a safety in, was almost guaranteed pressure for the defense last season.

That can't continue. It simply can't.

Depends what you mean by MAX protect. I think different people have different definitions. Max protect in the truest sense is keeping 3 extra guys in and sending two receivers out. I didn't see a lot of that. Teams go to six-man protection a majority of passing plays. How often do you see 5 man routes? Unless it's a team that is purposely spreading the field and doing 3 step drops to keep a good DL from dominating, not very often. Teams go to seven-man protections a good amount time on passing plays when the defense blitzes. That isn't something unique to Green Bay. Hardly. If that's the definition we are going with, then Detroit max-protected against Green Bay last year. St. Louis max-protected against Detroit, Chicago max-protected against Green Bay. Those years when teams were sending extra blockers at KGB, they were max protecting then. It happens all of the time. When a team blitzes (which they do on a lot on obvious passing downs), offenses will have extra blockers in. You have to match up numbers. Do a google search on "max protect". People act like max protect is something new to the Packers last year. Of course, they max protected more. They don't have Wahle, Rivera, and Flanagan. They max protected a lot in 2005 also (McCarthy wasn't here), but that didn't help out much. If the definition of MAX protect is keeping one or two extra blockers in (whether it's the TE, two TEs, a HB, a FB), I'd venture to guess that most teams max protected on a majority of passing plays.

People talk about how the Packers rookie OL can't match up with the Vikings DTs, for example. Well, the first game, the Packers kept a lot of extra blockers in. However, in the second game, they had more 5 receiver sets than any other game and handled the Vikings defense without a lot of protection (according to Bob McGinn).

Personally, I thought the drops were as big of a detriment to the offense last year as the OL. I also thought you could fault Favre in some games. This team needs improvement in the OL to have a better offense, but it also needs fewer drops and it needs Favre not to fade in the second half of the season again--like he has the last couple of years.