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Glenn is bigger threat in Dallas
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Insider
Updated: June 20, 2007
This is the second in a series of articles about overrated and underrated players. The rankings are based primarily on the 2006 metrics. This week's topic is overrated and underrated wide receivers.
Overrated wide receivers
Donald Driver
For sheer production, Driver had few equals last year, as he ranked fifth in the league in receptions and in receiving yards.
June 20 Glossary
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.
Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield.
Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.
Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage.
• Complete Glossary
However, it took a huge number of pass attempts for him to amass these figures. When I rank wide receivers, I place the highest value on consistency and explosiveness. Driver certainly wasn't that explosive, as his 7.6 YPA ranked him 48th among wide receivers (of 67 qualifiers).
His 10.3 YPA on bomb passes (30-plus yards downfield) ranked him 39th in the league, and his 10.1 YPA on deep passes (20-29 yards) ranked him 44th.
Driver's consistency also left something to be desired. His success percentage, which used to be Driver's calling card, plummeted to a meager 57.6 percent last year, his lowest total in the four years I have been tracking metrics. He also had the most dropped passes of any wide receiver, and his dropped pass percentage (14.4) was the 12th worst in the NFL.
I'm not saying Driver is a bad wide receiver. I just think metrics such as these did not warrant the Pro Bowl starter slot he garnered last year.
Chris Chambers
Chambers isn't considered a great receiver, but his metrics indicate he wasn't even a good receiver last year. Chambers had the lowest YPA (5.1) and success percentage (44.8) of any wide receiver in the NFL in 2006. He ranked no higher than 49th in YPA at any depth level, so he lacked production across the board.
Chambers was hampered by bad quarterback play, but 14 of his 24 missed pass plays last year were drops. Even if some of those other 10 passes had been completed, though, it still wouldn't have brought his overall metrics back up to a respectable level.
Underrated wide receivers
Terry Glenn
Terrell Owens gets the most press in Dallas, but the metrics indicate Glenn was the better receiver in 2006, and it wasn't even close. Glenn had the third-best overall YPA, the ninth-best bomb pass YPA and the seventh-best medium pass YPA.
Contrast that with Owens' ranking in overall YPA (40th), bomb pass YPA (37th) and medium pass YPA (34th), and it is clear Glenn is the more consistent and explosive receiver. Owens is still a productive player, as evidenced by his 13 touchdowns, but Glenn is the far more reliable receiver.
Reggie Brown
Donte Stallworth (who left via free agency) and Kevin Curtis (who signed with the Eagles) have received most of the attention in Philadelphia this offseason, but if the 2006 metrics are any indication, the breakout receiver could be Brown. He ranked 12th in the league with a 9.6 YPA last year, putting him in the company of Reggie Wayne and Darrell Jackson.
He also ranked in the top 22 in bomb and deep pass YPA and had the sixth-highest medium pass YPA. Opposing defenses might be paying a lot of attention to Curtis this season, and Brown's metrics indicate he could make them pay for it.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which hits newsstands on June 19. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
(Archive)
Insider
Updated: June 20, 2007
This is the second in a series of articles about overrated and underrated players. The rankings are based primarily on the 2006 metrics. This week's topic is overrated and underrated wide receivers.
Overrated wide receivers
Donald Driver
For sheer production, Driver had few equals last year, as he ranked fifth in the league in receptions and in receiving yards.
June 20 Glossary
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.
Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield.
Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor.
Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage.
• Complete Glossary
However, it took a huge number of pass attempts for him to amass these figures. When I rank wide receivers, I place the highest value on consistency and explosiveness. Driver certainly wasn't that explosive, as his 7.6 YPA ranked him 48th among wide receivers (of 67 qualifiers).
His 10.3 YPA on bomb passes (30-plus yards downfield) ranked him 39th in the league, and his 10.1 YPA on deep passes (20-29 yards) ranked him 44th.
Driver's consistency also left something to be desired. His success percentage, which used to be Driver's calling card, plummeted to a meager 57.6 percent last year, his lowest total in the four years I have been tracking metrics. He also had the most dropped passes of any wide receiver, and his dropped pass percentage (14.4) was the 12th worst in the NFL.
I'm not saying Driver is a bad wide receiver. I just think metrics such as these did not warrant the Pro Bowl starter slot he garnered last year.
Chris Chambers
Chambers isn't considered a great receiver, but his metrics indicate he wasn't even a good receiver last year. Chambers had the lowest YPA (5.1) and success percentage (44.8) of any wide receiver in the NFL in 2006. He ranked no higher than 49th in YPA at any depth level, so he lacked production across the board.
Chambers was hampered by bad quarterback play, but 14 of his 24 missed pass plays last year were drops. Even if some of those other 10 passes had been completed, though, it still wouldn't have brought his overall metrics back up to a respectable level.
Underrated wide receivers
Terry Glenn
Terrell Owens gets the most press in Dallas, but the metrics indicate Glenn was the better receiver in 2006, and it wasn't even close. Glenn had the third-best overall YPA, the ninth-best bomb pass YPA and the seventh-best medium pass YPA.
Contrast that with Owens' ranking in overall YPA (40th), bomb pass YPA (37th) and medium pass YPA (34th), and it is clear Glenn is the more consistent and explosive receiver. Owens is still a productive player, as evidenced by his 13 touchdowns, but Glenn is the far more reliable receiver.
Reggie Brown
Donte Stallworth (who left via free agency) and Kevin Curtis (who signed with the Eagles) have received most of the attention in Philadelphia this offseason, but if the 2006 metrics are any indication, the breakout receiver could be Brown. He ranked 12th in the league with a 9.6 YPA last year, putting him in the company of Reggie Wayne and Darrell Jackson.
He also ranked in the top 22 in bomb and deep pass YPA and had the sixth-highest medium pass YPA. Opposing defenses might be paying a lot of attention to Curtis this season, and Brown's metrics indicate he could make them pay for it.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which hits newsstands on June 19. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.
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