SNAPPER STOCKPILING STRATEGY OF DRAFT PICKS

[Partial]

I actually like Jackson, just as I like Morency... but, they're very similar backs - and, since I don't view Morency as an every down player... did TT spend a 2nd round pick on a PT player??? or worse, a backup.

Who drafts a player in the 2nd round with the expectation that he'll be a good backup???

As for Jones, don't know much about him - except that he's pretty good sized, strong, good hands, and can't run. He'll get PT b/c of his draft status, but he was a huge reach. Jones is TT's "I'm smarter than you" pick.

Is Jones better than Carlyle Holliday??? Holliday played pretty well at the end of last year... does picking Jones bump Holliday off the roster??? If so, and he's basically the same thing as Holliday, how does that make the team better???

As many have been pointing out... TT's approach, at some point, just keeps turning the bottom of the roster over and over again.

Morency is a free agent after this year. If he doesn't perform Jackson becomes the starter.

[CaliforniaCheez]

Well you hope that draft picks continue to improve like Driver and Kampmann continued to improve. That depth guys work their way up to starters and then quality starters.

One hopes to find a Tauscher or Colston in the 7th round but those are rare.

However the process has to be supplemented with free agency,

The quality of the team determines decisions of quality vs. quantity.

Blanket statements cannot be made.

The long term is being addressed. Older players like the starting OT's do have replacements already on the team. Quality replacements for the aging CB will be.

Ted has addressed the depth of the team fairly well. It took some discipline to do that.

The cap status in 2005 led to cutting guys like Sharper and Wahle. Their quality is difficult to replace and to date has not.

Sometimes what you're shopping for is not available.

I think we will begin to see a shift to quality as the team climbs above .500.

[Scott Campbell]

Ted inherited the Sherminator's rapidly declining roster, and a lousy short term salary cap situation. I think he's stopped the bleeding on the roster situation, but it remains to be seen if they can take the next steps up to contender status. His conservative approach to FA has given the team an incredible amount of cap flexibility. He's shown that he'll use some of that flexibility to extend promising up and comers. He also showed last year that he may take a few opportunistic shots in FA. This year he showed that he might pass on FA altogether if he can't land the right value.

So far these moves make sense to me. But it's time to show some real progress and win the division.

[RashanGary]

So far these moves make sense to me. But it's time to show some real progress and win the division.

I agree. I'm not going to jump off a cliff if it's not this year but shit or get off the pot time is approaching.

[wist43]

I agree that the lower round draft choices need to develop into starters for this team to have any shot at respectability in the next few years.

After Favre leaves, even if Rodgers ultimately proves he can be an average QB in the league (the absolute highest ceiling I can conceive for him), they're going to flounder around for at least a couple of years.

Adding to the impending Rodgers experiment will be the decline in play, or departure of aging veterans Clifton (Barbre), Harris (Blackmon), Woodson (????), Tausher (Moll), and Driver (????). Then there is the log jam at a position of strength, DT (Pickett and Williams). You would think that one of those guys will be gone after either this year or next.

Moll seems like he'll be ok... needs to bulk up, but he seems to have the tools to eventually step in for Taush. We know nothing about Barbre, and Blackmon has skills, but can he stay healthy??? There's currently no one on the roster waiting to take over for Driver and Woodson.

From where we are now, i.e. the holes that already exist on the roster, and the expected holes created by the departure of the vets listed above... even with the emergence of some of the lower round guys - when does TT get caught up???

Do we continue to draft 46 guys and bottom feed in FA every year??? So let's say we find some guys who can adequately fill all those holes - or even 1/2 of the holes... where are the playmakers necessary to winning championships going to come from??? The 5th/6th/7th rounds???

[Zool]

You're saying this like we've traded out of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd each of the past 3 years.

2005 there was 1 first, 2 seconds, 0 3rds.
2006 there was 1 first, 2 seconds, 2 3rds.
2007 there was 1 first, 1 second, 2 3rds.

Seems to me that we've gotten more picks in the first 3 rounds than each team is alloted over the past 3 seasons. Do you really believe that trading down 10 spots in the 5th round to pick up an additional 6th rounder is sacrificing a talent level?

So far we've picked exactly at our assigned spot in the first round which is where the blue chippers are supposed to come from right?

[Partial]

You're saying this like we've traded out of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd each of the past 3 years.

2005 there was 1 first, 2 seconds, 0 3rds.
2006 there was 1 first, 2 seconds, 2 3rds.
2007 there was 1 first, 1 second, 2 3rds.

Seems to me that we've gotten more picks in the first 3 rounds than each team is alloted over the past 3 seasons. Do you really believe that trading down 10 spots in the 5th round to pick up an additional 6th rounder is sacrificing a talent level?

So far we've picked exactly at our assigned spot in the first round which is where the blue chippers are supposed to come from right?

No, its not. That is why TT has a good strategy because it gives you another player in camp that may turn into something. More often than not I am sure they still get the guy they want even when trading down 10 picks. It's a crapshoot after the first day. With two shots instead of one, the odds improve.

[Zool]

That was my point.

[Partial]

That was my point.

Right

[Fritz]

Thesse last few posts make a good point, and earlier CalCheez made another, and I'd like to expand on that point. Bretsky's original assumption is that low-round draft picks automatically become the bottom third of your roster. While that is probably the most likely fate of most of those post-fourth round picks, it is also true that there can be impact guys found late. Not too often, but often enough that it's worth having, say, five picks in rounds five to seven rather than three. You might, if your scouts are good and you're a bit lucky, find a Driver, a Colston, a Rivera, a Levens, a Bennett, or a Tauscher.

And if you're only trading down from the mid-fourth to the late fourth to get an extra pick in the fifth or sixth, what does it cost you? If you're trading down then you're clearly not enamoured with what's sitting in front of you. Thompson trades down, yes, but he also stays put - see Rodgers, Harrell, and Hawk.

[wist43]

Trading down in the 1st though, will net you 2nd's and 3rd's... still very high quality players. Trading down in the 4th nets you bodies...

No matter how you slice it, they're going to bring 80 some bodies to camp; so, what you're looking at is 25-30 guys who fill out the training camp roster, with the hope that 1 or 2 of them is a player.

Most of those 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders are borderline FA's anyway - personally, I value 4th round picks pretty highly.

[wist43]

2005 draft: 5th Coston, 5th Hawkins, 6th Montgomery, 6th Bragg, 7th Campbell, 7th Whittiker.

Lot of junk there... none of those guys can play. Coston and Monte are still with the team, but I don't hold out much hope for them.

2006 draft: 5th Ingle Martin, 5th Tony Moll, 6th Jonny Jolly, 6th Tyron Culver, 7th Dave Tollefson.

Two players, two potential players, one junk.

[Bretsky]

Thesse last few posts make a good point, and earlier CalCheez made another, and I'd like to expand on that point. Bretsky's original assumption is that low-round draft picks automatically become the bottom third of your roster. While that is probably the most likely fate of most of those post-fourth round picks, it is also true that there can be impact guys found late. Not too often, but often enough that it's worth having, say, five picks in rounds five to seven rather than three. You might, if your scouts are good and you're a bit lucky, find a Driver, a Colston, a Rivera, a Levens, a Bennett, or a Tauscher.

And if you're only trading down from the mid-fourth to the late fourth to get an extra pick in the fifth or sixth, what does it cost you? If you're trading down then you're clearly not enamoured with what's sitting in front of you. Thompson trades down, yes, but he also stays put - see Rodgers, Harrell, and Hawk.

Has Ted found any late round gems ?? Sherman found Kampman. Wolf found several. Should be interesting to see.

[esoxx]

Thesse last few posts make a good point, and earlier CalCheez made another, and I'd like to expand on that point. Bretsky's original assumption is that low-round draft picks automatically become the bottom third of your roster. While that is probably the most likely fate of most of those post-fourth round picks, it is also true that there can be impact guys found late. Not too often, but often enough that it's worth having, say, five picks in rounds five to seven rather than three. You might, if your scouts are good and you're a bit lucky, find a Driver, a Colston, a Rivera, a Levens, a Bennett, or a Tauscher.

And if you're only trading down from the mid-fourth to the late fourth to get an extra pick in the fifth or sixth, what does it cost you? If you're trading down then you're clearly not enamoured with what's sitting in front of you. Thompson trades down, yes, but he also stays put - see Rodgers, Harrell, and Hawk.

Has Ted found any late round gems ?? Sherman found Kampman. Wolf found several. Should be interesting to see.

Sherman also found two pretty good starters in Wells & Williams very late in the draft.

[Bretsky]

Thesse last few posts make a good point, and earlier CalCheez made another, and I'd like to expand on that point. Bretsky's original assumption is that low-round draft picks automatically become the bottom third of your roster. While that is probably the most likely fate of most of those post-fourth round picks, it is also true that there can be impact guys found late. Not too often, but often enough that it's worth having, say, five picks in rounds five to seven rather than three. You might, if your scouts are good and you're a bit lucky, find a Driver, a Colston, a Rivera, a Levens, a Bennett, or a Tauscher.

And if you're only trading down from the mid-fourth to the late fourth to get an extra pick in the fifth or sixth, what does it cost you? If you're trading down then you're clearly not enamoured with what's sitting in front of you. Thompson trades down, yes, but he also stays put - see Rodgers, Harrell, and Hawk.

Has Ted found any late round gems ?? Sherman found Kampman. Wolf found several. Should be interesting to see.

Sherman also found two pretty good starters in Wells & Williams very late in the draft.

I've noted several times that his selections were not as terrible as many people note.

But his trade ups were his big mistake. Giving up eight draft picks to trade up for four players who turned out to be nothing was terrible.