POLL-ODDS BETTER FOR 6-10 or 10-6 ?

[HarveyWallbangers]

I find this odd as well. There is near universal acceptance of, and even some love for, the TT way. Yet here we are, almost 3 years in to his reign, and most here think we won't bust 500.

Well, this is his third year. We haven't seen his third draft play yet. I, for one, gave him a pass his first year. He had a decent team that was really getting old and no cap room. He lost Wahle, Rivera, and Sharper almost immediately after he took over. He couldn't tear it down while they were coming off 10-6, but once they had the injuries and hit rock bottom the next year, the rebuilding started. He's in year two of the rebuilding process, and that's why I expect the big-time results to happen next year. I'll be content with a team that is solid this year, but the schedule is brutal, so I'm not sure it will show up in wins and losses like some think it should.

[the_idle_threat]

And the proof is in the large number of people here, as optomisitic a bunch as you'll find, who think we won't win more than we'll lose.

I don't reach that same conclusion from this poll.

For one thing, 9-7 is not an option in this poll, and it would be a winning record. Considering that only 3 teams in the entire NFC finished better than 9-7 last season, and 10-6 was good enough for a 1st round bye, perhaps the optimists think we could have a winning team but stop short of saying the team is on par with the top 3 teams in the conference.

Also, the poll is asking whether it is more likely the team will finish at 10-6 vs. 6-10.

Especially now---when it's so early and we haven't seen how the question marks will iron themselves out in camp---it's more likely something will go wrong rather than everything will go right.

I don't think that's an indictment of the team or of TT. I think that's a reality shared by most (if not all) teams in the league at this point in the summer.

IMO, there are maybe a half-dozen teams in the entire league---if that---who are more likely to be 10-6 as opposed to 6-10. Everyone else has some big question marks, and there's always the looming presence of injury or a Vick-like implosion from a star player.

[Bretsky]

With all the kool aide homerism for the Snapper methodology I would have expected more to argue our strategies our working better and faster than our competitors and we're not far away from 10-6

I find this odd as well. There is near universal acceptance of, and even some love for, the TT way. Yet here we are, almost 3 years in to his reign, and most here think we won't bust 500.

So, is that ok? Or do folks still lay this all on Sherman? Me, I think TT has brought in only 1 true impact player -- Woodson. He's brought in some solid guys, like Hawk, Pickett, and Jennings, but that's not enough. And the proof is in the large number of people here, as optomisitic a bunch as you'll find, who think we won't win more than we'll lose.

[Bretsky]

And the proof is in the large number of people here, as optomisitic a bunch as you'll find, who think we won't win more than we'll lose.

I don't reach that same conclusion from this poll.

For one thing, 9-7 is not an option in this poll, and it would be a winning record. Considering that only 3 teams in the entire NFC finished better than 9-7 last season, and 10-6 was good enough for a 1st round bye, perhaps the optimists think we could have a winning team but stop short of saying the team is on par with the top 3 teams in the conference.

Also, the poll is asking whether it is more likely the team will finish at 10-6 vs. 6-10.

Especially now---when it's so early and we haven't seen how the question marks will iron themselves out in camp---it's more likely something will go wrong rather than everything will go right.

I don't think that's an indictment of the team or of TT. I think that's a reality shared by most (if not all) teams in the league at this point in the summer.

IMO, there are maybe a half-dozen teams in the entire league---if that---who are more likely to be 10-6 as opposed to 6-10. Everyone else has some big question marks, and there's always the looming presence of injury or a Vick-like implosion from a star player.

Right or wrong, my assumption was that anybody who truly believes Green Bay will go 9-7 would select 10-6.

And this topic, which was well thought out to purposely eliminate all of the easy predictions in the 7-9 win area, was intended to get the 8-8 people to commit one way.

[the_idle_threat]

Right or wrong, my assumption was that anybody who truly believes Green Bay will go 9-7 would select 10-6.

I don't think that's a fair assumption.

Given what looks like a tougher schedule this year as compared to last, I'm not willing to say that they'll win 10 even if I might think they can eke out 9. Each marginal win comes with great difficulty. This is especially the case given that a 10-6 team in the NFC is one of the top 3 teams in the conference.

On the other hand, it's very easy for something to go wrong and the team loses a few more than expected.

[retailguy]

Right or wrong, my assumption was that anybody who truly believes Green Bay will go 9-7 would select 10-6.

I don't think that's a fair assumption.

Given what looks like a tougher schedule this year as compared to last, I'm not willing to say that they'll win 10 even if I might think they can eke out 9. Each marginal win comes with great difficulty. This is especially the case given that a 10-6 team in the NFC is one of the top 3 teams in the conference.

On the other hand, it's very easy for something to go wrong and the team loses a few more than expected.

And what this all means in simple english, is, that when you look at the talent level of the Packers, you look at the schedule, you look at the holes on the team, you just don't see 10 wins.... They just aren't there. However, you see very clearly what can happen if a few critical things go wrong, as happened in 2005. Face it, we get a couple of injuries at critical positions of little depth, and/or, have a poor OL, this team's goose is COOKED.

[Bretsky]

I'm in search of a thread and thought I'd bump this one for any new voters

[swede]

I'm with Idle on this one.

The most likely choices weren't options. 6-10 is only more likely than 10-6.

Injuries or mistakes by young players are more likely at this point than the kind of blessed football luck needed for this team to finish at 10-6.

Yet I also think it is more likely that this team will go 10-6 than 5-11 but that wasn't a choice either.

I'm pleased with the progress on defense. Defense is the foundation of a champion and we will be in every game we play this year because of it.

I think my lack of confidence in this team's potential for racking up double-digit wins stems from my lack of confidence in the coaching and schemes. The linebacker coach is about the only guy on the coaching staff that has me believing. And this is really scary because if the coaching staff gets sacked it would once again take three-five years to rebuild, and next time it would be without Favre.

MM is lucky everybody bitches about TT non-stop. This seems to take the immediate pressure off of Philbin, and Sanders and MM himself.

[PackerBlues]

I think 6-10 is about right. Thompson already said that it was RB by committee, and I do not look at any single one of our RB's as being legitimate starters. Do you honestly think any other team would want one of our RB's as their starter going into the season.

At WR, we have Driver and Jennings, and after that, it may as well be WR by committee as well.

TE? Ouch!

Our Offense was pathetic last year, I dont see it being any better this year. Perhaps by about half way through the season some of the rookies may become familiar enough with the Offense to step up big time, but that may be just wishful thinking.

[superfan]

The most likely choices weren't options. 6-10 is only more likely than 10-6.

Injuries or mistakes by young players are more likely at this point than the kind of blessed football luck needed for this team to finish at 10-6...

Agree completely with swede.

Almost everything would need to go right for 10-6. Only a few things need to go wrong to slip to 6-10. I also agree that this statement holds true (to me) for all but maybe the top half dozen or so teams in the league.

I think GB has about an equal chance of going 7-9 as 9-7. 11-5 or better is almost unfathomable, as is 5-11 or worse.

I don't think it is fair to use this poll as an indicator of Thompson's performance to date. Anything can happen in one season. If the Bears regress badly this year, as has been the case recently with Super Bowl losers, is that the fault of Lovie Smith or the GM? Maybe, but not necessarily. Players can have down years, injuries happen, fluke plays and bad calls can cost teams games.

It is the job of the GM to put the pieces in place to help mitigate risks, but he can't control all of the variables.

[Bretsky]

GM's plan for injuries; the WILL happen and that is why a GM considers using all resources to have a team with depth. When they are outrageous, like our 4-12 season, they can have a greater effect. But every GM has to plan for injuries, which will occur.

Nearly everybody in the world is picking between 7-9 wins for Green Bay. I made this poll and thread to force people to think a bit outside the box and make a decision with stones.


Cheers,
B

[The Leaper]

When healthy McNabb is still one of the top 7 QB's in the NFL; probably top 6. And Reid is pretty dang good coach; he beat Sherman teams that were far more talented IMO.

Huh? The Eagles went to 4 straight NFC title games in Sherman's tenure. I think Reid's teams in the Sherman era were pretty damn talented...certainly not far less talented than Green Bay.

[The Leaper]

I'm thinking 7-8 wins is the most likely scenario at this point. Our defense should win a couple games on their own...and Favre is good for a couple games as well.

After the pathetic offensive showing the other night, thinking we can reach 10 wins would be a real stretch.

[Tony Oday]

I love living in the past

[oregonpackfan]

Thanks for bringing up this past post. Man, were most of us every wrong in our predictions, including me!

Yep, I admit it. I was wrong and am damn happy about it!