Scouts INC : Packers will be a top-10 defense

[packers11]

Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Packers will be a top-10 defense

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The Green Bay Packers will have a top 10 defense by the end of the season. Bet your paycheck on it. Their special teams and offensive skill positions are poor, but this defense is capable of carrying the Pack.

The biggest reason for my optimism with this defense is up front. The defensive line, at both end and tackle, is deep and will allow the Packers the freedom to continually rotate players and stay fresh. The starting defensive ends, Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins, have good size and are stout at the point of attack without sacrificing the ability to get after the quarterback. Plus, when Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is fresh he can still excel as an edge pass rusher, but he is not starting material due to his size and propensity for wearing down. Few teams in the league have three ends of this caliber.

Rounding out the defensive front four, the Packers will rotate a corps of deep and underappreciated players at defensive tackle. Starter Ryan Pickett can be an effective space eater, but he has stamina issues. Those stamina issues should not be a problem with Colin Cole, Johnny Jolly, Corey Williams and first round pick Justin Harrell rotating in. None of these players are elite in their own right, but the overall combination will be very effective. This also allows Green Bay to bring Harrell along slowly without losing out on production in the middle. Most importantly, this group of defensive tackles should stay very fresh throughout the game and allow linebackers A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett to do what they do best: make big plays.

The linebackers should be excellent. Hawk and Barnett are not exceptional take-on players, but both can really run, are instinctive and should excel in coverage. One or both players should make the Pro Bowl this year and expect to see a lot of highlight reel plays from this duo. Hawk is on the verge of stardom.


The secondary has some questions, but veteran cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Al Harris could be the most overlooked and underrated pair in the league. Woodson resurrected his career and was simply outstanding last season, while Harris remained very steady and reliable. There simply are not many groups of starting corners in the league on par with these two. Both players have size and are very good man to man defenders, which allows the Packers an awful lot of freedom with their defensive play calling. Depth and age at the position are a concern because both players are over 30, but Woodson and Harris should duplicate the high standards they set for themselves in 2006 and their supporting cast in the secondary will also be better than last year.

At safety, Marquand Manuel and Nick Collins are somewhat pedestrian. This is the biggest weakness on a very good defensive unit, but Collins is young and still has a lot of upside to his game, while Manuel is a pretty solid all around player.

The Packers finished at 8-8 last year and in 2007 if they are to get over the hump, their defense will be the cause. After all, outside of Chicago, who in the NFC has a better defense than the Packers?

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Nothing too shocking really. This is things a lot of us thought would happen if it all just fell in to place, and barring any injuries it looks like our "D" will finally be a force again.

[RashanGary]

There have been posters here all off season that saw this coming together similar to the Bears of last year. It's not impossible to see this shit if you look for patterns of guys entering their prime, coaching continuity, rising playmakers, ect. . .

The haters have grinded all off season saying we'd be lucky to be 6-10. Look now. This is just the beginning. The offense/running game is the next group to prove everyone wrong. Again, a couple sets of young legs at RB, an Oline that should improve by leaps and bounds. People act like we have a horrible situation on the Oline and at running back. It's just not the case.

[Bretsky]

There have been posters here all off season that saw this coming together similar to the Bears of last year. It's not impossible to see this shit if you look for patterns of guys entering their prime, coaching continuity, rising playmakers, ect. . .

The haters have grinded all off season saying we'd be lucky to be 6-10. Look now. This is just the beginning. The offense/running game is the next group to prove everyone wrong. Again, a couple sets of young legs at RB, an Oline that should improve by leaps and bounds. People act like we have a horrible situation on the Oline and at running back. It's just not the case.

I'd assume I'm a hater, but where have any of us posted 6 wins ? In fact most haters are in the 7-8 range from what I can see.

I don't buy for a second that we've seen much evidence of the OL improving by leaps and bounds by the way. It could go either way and the preseason has shown that.

Maybe they will due to a year of growth, but you state this stuff like it's fact.

And we are near he bottom of the league for running back talent. Being generous we're in the bottom 10; very well could be the bottom five.

Doesn't mean we can't still win 7-9 games; but doesn't mean Everything is cheery roses in Green Bay either.

[Packnut]

D

I do believe I wrote an article over a month ago about the D that pointed out all the same things that the national media is jumping on now. Glad they finally caught up with me.

[Packnut]

Hater

There have been posters here all off season that saw this coming together similar to the Bears of last year. It's not impossible to see this shit if you look for patterns of guys entering their prime, coaching continuity, rising playmakers, ect. . .

The haters have grinded all off season saying we'd be lucky to be 6-10. Look now. This is just the beginning. The offense/running game is the next group to prove everyone wrong. Again, a couple sets of young legs at RB, an Oline that should improve by leaps and bounds. People act like we have a horrible situation on the Oline and at running back. It's just not the case.

I'd assume I'm a hater, but where have any of us posted 6 wins ? In fact most haters are in the 7-8 range from what I can see.

I don't buy for a second that we've seen much evidence of the OL improving by leaps and bounds by the way. It could go either way and the preseason has shown that.

Maybe they will due to a year of growth, but you state this stuff like it's fact.

And we are near he bottom of the league for running back talent. Being generous we're in the bottom 10; very well could be the bottom five.

Doesn't mean we can't still win 7-9 games; but doesn't mean Everything is cheery roses in Green Bay either.

Better to be accused of hating than being a mindless cheerleader.

[Fritz]

There have been posters here all off season that saw this coming together similar to the Bears of last year. It's not impossible to see this shit if you look for patterns of guys entering their prime, coaching continuity, rising playmakers, ect. . .

The haters have grinded all off season saying we'd be lucky to be 6-10. Look now. This is just the beginning. The offense/running game is the next group to prove everyone wrong. Again, a couple sets of young legs at RB, an Oline that should improve by leaps and bounds. People act like we have a horrible situation on the Oline and at running back. It's just not the case.

I'd assume I'm a hater, but where have any of us posted 6 wins ? In fact most haters are in the 7-8 range from what I can see.

I don't buy for a second that we've seen much evidence of the OL improving by leaps and bounds by the way. It could go either way and the preseason has shown that.

Maybe they will due to a year of growth, but you state this stuff like it's fact.

And we are near he bottom of the league for running back talent. Being generous we're in the bottom 10; very well could be the bottom five.

Doesn't mean we can't still win 7-9 games; but doesn't mean Everything is cheery roses in Green Bay either.

I don't see you as a "hater," Bretsky. I think you're unconvinced, and frankly, as a TT supporter myself, I'd say you have good reason to be unconvinced. I think that if this team stays injury free, it could go 9-7. So as I said, I don't see you as terribly negative. Just skeptical, and since this team has done little yet, you have reason to feel that way.

[Harlan Huckleby]

TT has built a fine team. For 2008 or 2009.

[Fritz]

As long as I stay healthy and get to see Ted's plan come to fruition in 2008, I suppose I'm kinda okay with that.

I believe (with no factual reason for doing so) that next year, if the team plays well this year and finishes strong, that TT will take some chances and become the wheeler-dealer many people wish for.

Jeremy Shockey in Green and Gold next year?

[b bulldog]

Nick, you are smokin something really whackey in regards to thinking our running game will be above average.

[HarveyWallbangers]

From an AP story I found:

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO BEARS (10-6)

Strengths: A high-impact defense led by LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, DT Tommie Harris and a cohesive secondary. WR Bernard Berrian is ready to emerge as a star, and rookie TE Greg Olsen adds a new dimension. KR Devin Hester is ultradangerous if healthy. C Olin Kreutz excels. Lovie Smith is a quality coach with a good staff.

Weaknesses: OK, can't avoid it -- QB Rex Grossman is too inconsistent and must take another big step. Trading RB Thomas Jones to open job for Cedric Benson might be unwise. OL, other than Kreutz, is pedestrian.

Players to watch: Briggs (in contract year), Berrian.

Biggest change: No more reliable Thomas Jones to take pressure off Grossman.

Schedule key: Considering division, how about finale vs. New Orleans, which could decide a lot in the conference?

Why they will finish first: This weak division makes Bears a virtual shoo-in, and their defense seals it.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8)

Strengths: QB Brett Favre's competitiveness and WR Donald Driver's brilliance. Excellent pass rush, with DE Cullen Jenkins about to break out and Aaron Kampman already established. If A.J. Hawk also comes on, linebacking could be special. Team should have some cohesion in second year of Mike McCarthy's regime.

Weaknesses: Suspect running game and receiving corps (outside of Driver). Inexperienced OL. Secondary has talent, but CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris are aging. Driver was injured in preseason.

Players to watch: Jenkins, RB Vernand Morency.

Biggest change: Defense has some versatility.

Schedule key: Pack can't get swept vs. Philly, Giants and Chargers in opening weeks.

Why they will finish second: Favre gives them edge over Lions and Vikings.

DETROIT LIONS (6-10)

Strengths: In second year under coordinator Mike Martz, offense could be explosive. QB Jon Kitna can throw to WRs Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and rookie Calvin Johnson. RBs Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell form a nice combo. Special teams are very good.

Weaknesses: Defense is a huge question mark, particularly up front and in secondary. Does DT Shaun Rogers have anything left and does he care? Will LB Boss Bailey finally develop? Offensive line also is weak.

Players to watch: Johnson, LB Ernie Sims.

Biggest change: Lions don't look like worst team in division.

Schedule key: Simple: beat Raiders in opener.

Why they will finish third: Detroit will score enough to avoid its usual spot in cellar.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-12)

Strengths: DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams can't be budged, so Vikings succeed against the run. Rookie Adrian Peterson and incumbent Chester Taylor should provide strong running game behind good line led by G Steve Hutchinson and C Matt Birk.

Weaknesses: Vikings have trouble covering in the passing game and throwing the ball; they have inexperience at quarterback and no standout receivers. They'll need to keep scores low to win, perhaps very low.

Players to watch: Peterson, CB Antoine Winfield.

Biggest change: Remember the pass-happy Vikes of Culpepper and Moss? Forget it, these Vikings will try to run.

Schedule key: Games 5-8 vs. Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia and San Diego.

Why they will finish fourth: Minnesota has taken some serious steps backward this year.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Packers Team Report
Tom Silverstein For Sporting News

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM: The Packers' defense has the potential to be one of the NFL's best. The line is as strong and as deep as it has been since the mid-'90s Super Bowl years, the linebackers will be better simply because of the development of WLB A.J. Hawk, and the secondary filled a major hole when it replaced Marquand Manuel in the starting lineup with athletic second-year FS Atari Bigby. This will be a unit capable of putting a lot of pressure on the quarterback either with a four-man rush or the blitzing power of MLB Nick Barnett, Hawk and Bigby. Perhaps the most significant change is the insertion of Cullen Jenkins at right end. He has proved to be a complete player with double-digit sack ability and could wind up being the team's most valuable defensive player. The special teams should be much better with the dynamic Will Blackmon taking over return duties.

REASONS FOR CONCERN: Expect a very slow start on offense. Rookie Brandon Jackson is the likely starter at running back, and he will take his lumps. His pass blocking is suspect and could be a serious problem. No other running back in camp has shown anything more than an ability to pound out a few yards at a time. The receiver position might be better, but that depends on rookie James Jones, who has been thrust into the No. 3 role. He doesn't know how to read defenses well enough to be a consistent force and will probably frustrate QB Brett Favre at times. Ruvell Martin and Carlyle Holiday, the Nos. 4 and 5 wideouts, are decent possession receivers, but there is no home run threat, which means the offense will have to sustain long drives to score. And don't expect help from the tight end spot; Favre will have to be patient.

SILVERSTEIN'S BOTTOM LINE: This team will be better than people think because the defense has a chance to be very good and keep the Packers in every game. Scoring will be a problem, which will make it difficult for Green Bay to be much better than .500. Expectations aren't all that high, but this should be a team knocking on the door of a playoff berth.

[superfan]

From an AP story I found...

Saw this same story, one of the weakest I have read. Granted, this is an excerpt and the entire article breaks down all the teams, but still. Anybody who pays even a limited amount of attention to the NFL and bought a football magazine could have thrown this together.

"Biggest change: Defense has some versatility." - Wow, that's insightful. Great insider info there.

"Why they will finish fourth: Minnesota has taken some serious steps backward this year." - While I don't disagree that Minnesota could finish fourth, other than losing their DC Mike Tomlin, I can't think of any big losses for the Vikes between last year and this year (edit: looked it up, key losses were LB Napoleon Harris, TE Wiggins, CB Smoot - not big losses). They add LB Chad Greenway, last year's first round pick who was on injured reserve last year, drafted Adrian Peterson, and QB Tarvaris Jackson should improve with more experience. A couple of their other picks such as Sidney Rice could contribute.

Maybe the author sees the addition of adding Ferg as a serious step backward.

Otherwise, this author gets the full treatment:

[HarveyWallbangers]

The love continues. Iyer seems to write favorably about the Packers a lot. I like him.

High member turnover in NFL's .500 club
By Vinnie Iyer - SportingNews

Every year, when I get called upon to my make my annual NFL playoff predictions, it's the most nerve-racking assignment. I take it very seriously and analyze every possible factor for every NFL team and its schedule, only to realize there's no real science involved in trying to predict the future.

Typically, after I put the no-brainers in place -- the Patriots and the Colts have been money the past five years -- I leave some room for surprise turnover. So how much turnover in terms of teams that finished better than .500 can we expect in 2007?

Since 2002, the first year the league went into its current eight divisions of four teams each format, roughly half the teams that finish above .500 one year finish above .500 the next. The best percentage of teams repeating winning success during that time frame was last season, when 12 teams finished above .500, and seven were carryovers from 2005.

So I can safely expect five teams that finished .500 or worse last season to finish better than .500 this season. To make places for those teams, that means five other teams need to fall back to mediocrity.

What does finishing above .500 mean? Well, in the AFC, it means a lot -- Denver found itself out of the playoffs last season despite a 9-7 record. In the NFC, however, the Giants made the playoffs from being in a four-way tie at 8-8.

Who's falling out?

1. Chiefs (9-7 in '06). The latest stars of "Hard Knocks" will have a hard time holding on to the final playoff spot in the AFC, even with Herman Edwards guiding a rising young defense. They barely got the edge over Denver in '06 and their 23-8 playoff loss to the Colts showed that when teams focus on shutting down Larry Johnson, the Chiefs have little pop to compensate. The fact that Damon Huard won the QB job despite a shaky preseason also is unsettling.

2. Jets (10-6 in '06). They might be a better team overall in Eric Mangini's second season than their record will indicate, but like the Chiefs, they play in the brutal AFC where there are a dozen teams with playoff potential. The schedule also is tougher, with the AFC North and NFC East added to New York's heavy AFC East plate. Their secondary and quarterback play also have developed into concerns in camp.

3. Seahawks (9-7 in '06). The NFC West has been knocked around as being a very weak division, but it might have the most pure combined offensive firepower of any NFL division. It's just that none of the four teams have a daunting defense, setting up all four clubs to hover around mediocrity this season. The 49ers already have Seattle's number with last season's sweep, and the Rams and the Cardinals both look improved. Remember, one fewer win than '06 is all it takes.

4. Ravens (13-3 in '06). OK, now it gets tricky. Baltimore just won a franchise-best 13 games, so this is calling for at least a five-game slide. For starters, the Ravens won't go 5-1 in the AFC North again because both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are poised to bounce back. Furthermore, they have three really tough cross-country trips to San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle. Then there are challenging back-to-back home games against New England and Indianapolis on a short week in December. That's 10 games in question right there for a team that already has some age issues.

5. Bears (13-3 in '06). Although the Seahawks did a good job of avoiding the Super Bowl hangover last season, they did fall from the ranks of the NFC's elite while also having bad luck with injuries. The Bears go into the season with one of the league's shakiest starting quarterbacks, with a new feature back and with a defense that surprisingly gave up an average of 372 yards over the final six games of the '06 regular season and playoffs. It helps that Chicago can fall back on the NFC North, but even that division isn't a mulligan anymore. It will be very interesting to see how the Bears handle a schedule full of offensively strong teams outside their division.

Who's falling in?

1. Bengals (8-8 in '06). Last season was merely a short hiccup for a young team that's about to enjoy a Colts-like run of long-term success. Carson Palmer isn't working back from a major knee injury anymore, and the defense is at least respectable enough against the run. The Bengals' toughest test comes in Week 4 against the Patriots, but then they get a bye and a pretty favorable stretch with their dozen remaining games.

2. 49ers (7-9 in '06). With tight end Vernon Davis healthy and Darrell Jackson serving as Alex Smith's new No. 1 wide receiver, the 49ers now have some pop in the passing game to complement Frank Gore's explosiveness in the running game. The switch to a 3-4 defense remains a tough transition, but young linebackers such as Manny Lawson and Patrick Willis will make it work, and the addition of cornerback Nate Clements will be huge in a division with Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald and Deion Branch as the opponents' top wideouts.

3. Jaguars (8-8 in '06). They, like the Bengals, are a young team that could be good for the long term, but unlike the Bengals, their trademark is physical defense. They were smart in jumping on correcting their weaknesses of '06. Their new offensive scheme and adjustments in the receiving corps will give them enough big pass plays to complement their running prowess with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Defensively, they're already a force against the run, and rookie safety Reggie Nelson will help them make big plays against the pass, too.

4. Panthers (8-8 in '06). This is an odd team, literally. In '03 and '05, the team's combined record was 22-10. In '02, '04 and '06, the team's combined record was 22-26. I'm not sure that short history guarantees another 11-5 finish for Carolina in '07, but there are many things to like about this team. Really, it comes down to consistency on defense and production from the running game, two things that have been greatly affected by injuries when the Panthers have been down around .500. With a clean bill of health, John Fox will coach this team back into the NFC playoffs.

5. Packers (8-8 in '06). You knew this was coming, folks, when you saw the Bears in that other category. I may be a year off on Green Bay, but I'm willing to take the chance the Pack will jump the learning curve and surprise many people this season. Because of what Sean Payton and Mangini did, the rookie coaching job of Mike McCarthy was understandably overlooked. Considering the team was breaking in a young offensive line and had more youngsters in key defensive roles, McCarthy did a nice job of just getting the team to .500. Strangely, because the team has enough talent elsewhere, it's on Brett Favre to have an efficient season for the team to deliver on its promise for '07.

[retailguy]

!

TT has built a fine team. For 2008 or 2009.

HEY! That's MY line.... :P