Football Outsiders DVOA loves the Packers

[pack4to84]

Last couple of years this DVOA has hated the Packers. This year it projects the Packers to get a first round bye. Predicting the Packers to win 9.4 games this year.

Chance to win division
GB 46.7%
Chi 25.8%
Min 14.4%
Det 13.2%

Playoffs
GB 69.5%
Chi 38.8%
Min 22.2%
Det 19.5%

Total wins
GB 9.4
Chi 8.1
Min 7.3
Det 7.2

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/09/05/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/5437/

[BallHawk]

How the hell do they get those statistics?

We have almost double the chance of winning the division over the defending NFC champs?

[HarveyWallbangers]

The team that will benefit from Chicago's misfortune, then, is the Green Bay Packers. Brett Favre spent the entire offseason complaining that the front office wasn't doing enough to build the Packers into a contender. Perhaps he doesn't remember that Green Bay went 8-8 last year and was just a tiebreaker away from making the postseason. One or two more wins this season will almost guarantee them a playoff spot in the weak NFC.

The Packers have some problems on offense—a rookie running back, questionable receivers—but even in old age Favre is still an above-average quarterback. It's also worth noting that Green Bay broke in two rookie offensive guards in 2006; all five starters return this year, and as a rule, offensive lines gradually improve as players gain experience working together.

The heart of this year's Packers, however, will be the defense. The Pack has a number of young, improving players in its front seven—defensive ends Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins, linebackers A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett—backed by two very good, experienced cornerbacks. If Favre would stop bellyaching for a minute, he might notice that the Packers have built him a winning team. That winning team just happens to reside on the defensive side of the locker room.