Official Winners and Losers Week 4

[HarveyWallbangers]

Once Will Blackmon gets the cast off, say goodbye to Chuck on returns. I expect they don't trust anybody else enough to do it. Francies? Funny. Maybe Bodiford.

[Partial]

Once Will Blackmon gets the cast off, say goodbye to Chuck on returns. I expect they don't trust anybody else enough to do it. Francies? Funny. Maybe Bodiford.

I was wondering why Bodiford wasn't back there since reactivated. I for one cannot wait to see what Will Highlight Blackmon does when activated. Kid has some shake and bake to him. I wouldn't mind seeing him used on some end arounds on offense either.

[Deputy Nutz]

The Packers haven't had a decent punt return team since early in the Sherman era with Allen Rossum. Its pretty disappointing but I just don't see any seams for our returners. I don't know if Mike Stock likes good field position off of punts, but that page of the special teams hand book must be missing.

[The Leaper]

4) Minnesota had 1 timeout with around 1:55 left when Green Bay took over, so Green Bay had to go for a first down. If you kneel down, you leave around 30-35 seconds left on the clock for them to get something fluky. You can't expect a fumble there.

I've always disagreed with this logic. Handing the ball off INCREASES the chance for a fumble exponentially, because multiple areas for mistake are now entered into the scenario besides the QB/center snap.

- The handoff itself can be screwed up, which clearly was the issue on Sunday.
- The footing of the players involved (bothQB and RB) can become compromised. Any slip or trip, either because of footing or getting stepped on by an OL player, could result in a fumble.
- The ability for the defenders to have a chance to swipe at the ball greatly increases the chance for a fumble.

Let me be perfectly clear about this...IT MAKES ZERO SENSE TO HAND THE BALL OFF IN THAT SITUATION. Zero.

If there is no reason to hand the ball off, then why do it? You take two knees, run the clock down to under 40 seconds, and punt it away. Even by handing it off, you essentially will be doing the same thing anyway...especially with our current running game. You might use up another 4 or 5 seconds on the actual play itself as opposed to taking a knee, but the chances of a fumble increase so dramatically over taking a knee that I don't see why you risk it.

Clearly, if the other team has timeouts that can stop the clock, then you hand the ball off and try for a first down. In this case, Minnesota had no timeouts remaining after the first down play. So you take a knee twice and punt the ball away (and out of bounds to prevent the chance for a return) and force Minnesota to go 70 yards in 40 seconds with no timeouts.

[Partial]

Leaper, you don't play scared. You run the ball each play and take the maximum amount off that you can. If you get the first down you win the game for sure. Mac made the right call, definitely.

[The Leaper]

You can as easily get a punt blocked or hike the ball over the punter's head or fumble the snap to the QB, for that matter. They can't played scared. The exchange should have been handled.

That isn't the point. Even had they run the ball two more times, a punt was likely still going to happen.

The point is REDUCING the chance of error. By taking a knee, you greatly limit the chance of a fumble prior to the punt. Clearly, we did not do this, and look what happened. Minnesota had a far greater chance to win the game because we did not actively attempt to limit the chances of error.

You don't let the defenders get free swipes at the ball, and you don't risk the chance of a bumbled handoff...not when the other team has no timeouts remaining and you can reduce the clock to well under 1 minute before you have to punt.

[The Leaper]

By then, it was second down though. Grant had already run up the gut for 2 yards. Any way you shake it, if you kneel down, the Vikes get the ball back with 30 seconds left.

And we would've gained 8 yards in two plays running up the gut to prevent a punt otherwise with our running game against the Viking DL?

I think you are about 99.9% incorrect on that one. We were going to be punting regardless...so at least take the chance of a fumbled handoff or stripped ball out of the equation and take a knee twice.

[Deputy Nutz]

Leaper, you don't play scared. You run the ball each play and take the maximum amount off that you can. If you get the first down you win the game for sure. Mac made the right call, definitely.

Nobody ever said anything about playing scared, thats stupid, you play it smart, meaning you don't hand the ball off to a guy that has less than ten carries in his NFL career. That is stupid. Logic might indicate trying to get a first down, but you have to run it and the most seasoned back you have is still recovering from injury. I even question having Grant in there and not Wynn.

[The Leaper]

Leaper, you don't play scared. You run the ball each play and take the maximum amount off that you can. If you get the first down you win the game for sure. Mac made the right call, definitely.

Bottom line...there was NO WAY our run game was getting a first down there, and we greatly increased the chances of a mistake or great defensive effort by handing off instead of taking a knee.

It isn't playing scared...it is limiting risk to give you a greater chance to succeed. No different that diversifying your financial portfolio. Sure, you can throw all your eggs in one basket and hit it big...or lose it big. But by identifying the risk factors and limiting them, you have a greater chance of success long term. That is why you take a knee in that situation.

Now, if the Vikings had 3 timeouts at the start of our possession, then I agree that you run and try for a first down...since they would've gotten the ball back with plenty of time to move into TD range for a couple hail marys.

[Partial]

I disagree with that logic because each time you kneel you lose two yards. So they would have lost 6 yards and punted. The odds of something going wrong in one of those 4 plays is just as likely as running it for 3 plays and punting. Say we got 8 yards running. Then net effect was 14 more yards they had to go. 14 more yards is a HUGE difference is that short amount of time.

[oregonpackfan]

I agree with virtually everything on Nutz's fine post.

One more "Winner" has to be Bubba Franks. He started the season with renewed effort and focus. He has continued that effort and production through week 4. Therefore, I consider him to be on the "Winning" track.

[The Leaper]

The odds of something going wrong in one of those 4 plays is just as likely as running it for 3 plays and punting. Say we got 8 yards running. Then net effect was 14 more yards they had to go.

That is simply devoid of logic.

Taking a knee requires a QB/C exchange only.

Running it requires a QB/C exchange, a proper handoff, and then allows defenders to take free shots at knocking the ball out of the RBs hands for a couple seconds...not to mention grabbing or punching a guy's junk to cause a fumble. It also increases the chances of a potential holding or false start penalty. Yes, I've seen it happen before (can't recall when...I think it was college, not the NFL) but I've never seen it when someone took a knee.

In other words, it is impossible to argue that the chances for fumbling when taking a knee are similar to when you handoff and run into a group of defenders. There are far more potential things that can go wrong, as we readily saw on Sunday.

Would the fumble on the handoff have happened if Favre took a knee? Obviously not...because Favre took the exchange from center cleanly. I think he could handle dropping to a knee without incident.

Why do you refuse to acknowledge that?

Say we got 8 yards running. Then net effect was 14 more yards they had to go. 14 more yards is a HUGE difference is that short amount of time.

14 yards is entirely meaningless in terms of the situation, Partial. We recovered an onside kick at midfield. Even if we lost ten yards, Ryan should have no problem angling a punt OOB at the Vikings 25-30 yard line.

That would force the Vikings to go over 70 yards in 40 seconds with no timeouts. One completion over the middle of the field basically eliminates over half of that time. At that point, 70 yards or 90 yards is equivalent...both would take several miracles to achieve. I don't have an NFL database in front of me, but I'll bet the probability of success in that that situation from past history is less than 1%.

After the turnover we had, the Viking's chances were significantly greater than 1%...probably at least ten times greater.

A turnover was our enemy, not the clock or field position. In that scenario, you do what is necessary to minimize ALL factors that could potentially cause a turnover.

[KYPack]

I disagree with that logic because each time you kneel you lose two yards. So they would have lost 6 yards and punted. The odds of something going wrong in one of those 4 plays is just as likely as running it for 3 plays and punting. Say we got 8 yards running. Then net effect was 14 more yards they had to go. 14 more yards is a HUGE difference is that short amount of time.

No, Partial.

(BTW who do you have playing QB that loses two yards a knee, Andre the Giant)

Your "youngblood" is showing.

There's a very famous NFL play in which journeyman Giant QB Joe Pisarcik fumbled a "run out the clock play" trying to hand off to Larry Csonka in the last second. The fumble was returned for a game winner by Herman Edwards, now HC of the Chiefs, then an Eagle DB.

For years afterward, everybody took knees to run out the clock

Now, some teams are handing off, bc ya might make the first. It's dumb and will go away.

Watch McCarthy. He'll have the QB take knees to run out the clock for the rest of his career.

Handing it to a kid is double dumb.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I disagree. I personally think a majority of coaches would have done the same thing. But I'm done arguing my point over and over.

[MJZiggy]

I agree with virtually everything on Nutz's fine post.

One more "Winner" has to be Bubba Franks. He started the season with renewed effort and focus. He has continued that effort and production through week 4. Therefore, I consider him to be on the "Winning" track.

Good point, OPF and I agree. Nutz, how could you not think of Bubba??? (kidding)

Of all the things I thought people would take issue with this week, taking a knee was a big surprise...