Time to Extend TT's contract

[vince]

Linebacker A - age 30 - signed by Team A for $7 million/yr. - on pace for 77 tackles and 1.5 sacks this year.

Linebacker B - age 26 - signed by Team B for $5.8 million/yr. - on pace for 149 tackles and 4 sacks this year.

Multiple Choice Question: Which team signed the better bargain? A or B?
Rhetorical question, I know, but those are the very simple facts.



Adalius Thomas signed a 5-year, $35 million ($20 million guaranteed) contract (Average $7 million/yr.) and is on pace to have 77 tackles and 1.5 sacks this year.

Nick Barnett signed a 6-year, $34.85 million (can't find guaranteed number) contract (average $5.8 million/yr.) and is on pace to have 149 tackles and 4 sacks.

I'd say first, that Thomas was NOT a bargain, and second that Thompson signed the bargain linebacker.

[vince]

If Koren Robinson proves to be any kind of contributor as a kick returner and/or receiver, he also could very well be a big bargain signing.

[RashanGary]

The age thing can't be underestimated either. Barnett should be good for the duration of his contract. Thomas stands a good chance of declining over the course of his deal and becoming injured.


Thomas is an example of one of the better UFA signings and Barnett is just the normal "get mine early" deal.

[RashanGary]

Will Witherspoon was signed a year earlier. He's antoher good comparison



He's on track for 109 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2.5 FF and 0 INT's. HE signed at 5.5 mil per year (a year earlier than Barnett before the big jump in pay days)


Barnett is on pace to get 149 tackles, 4 sacks and 5 INT's with a contract of 5.8 mil


Witherspoon is performing below Barnett and had he signed the same year as Barnett, he would have gotten a 10% CBA jump, bringing his salary to over 6 mil per year. Relatively speaking, Witherspoon costed more at the time and performed less. Another example of the drafting well and signing your own paying off.

Something more comprehensive has to be put together though. People will always find the exception and confuse it with the rule until many of these comparisions are done.

[GBRulz]

I thought TT had a 5 year contract? We're not even halfway through it, so IMO it's a bit early to extend him.

What I would really like to see is how we finish the season, including the playoffs. If we are one impact player short to move this team to the next level, I want to see him agressively go after someone to fill that need, someone who can make an impact NOW, not 3 years from now.

[Carolina_Packer]

I have a formula that I developed for roster value that is somewhat like a Newton*Meter. It's (player grade * positional value) = Roster Value. If you're thinking torque, it's force * moment, the grade being the force, the position value being the leverage. All of this info is going to be taken from respected writers (if they'll answer my questions) and a couple football posters here that I respect adn I think everyone else does too. From these numbers, I'm going to take good teams and bad teams and find a span of value that they fall under. There has never been a team of all Taco Wallaces and there will never be a team of all Payton Manning, Reggie White and Ladanian Tomlinsons. There is a limit that is approaced on each side. My goal is to come close to those limits.

From there, I'll have a Best (Let's call it 75 out of 100) and a worste (lets call it 25 out of 100). There are 50 value points (like the newton meter) between best and worste. From there, you can start anylizing how adding one player in place of another will effect the total outcome. From there, you can figure out the percentage of improvement. EXAMPLE

(change in value) / 50 (difference between worste and best) = % gain]

Then you take %gain and compare it to % of recources used and we can start discussing whether it was a good or bad decision. We'll then compare a bunch of UFA's, Draft, Fringe markets, ect. . . and get some conclusions in short term benefit and big picture benefit.



This is really basic and obviously slopped together, but this is my aim. I'm going to run it by Patler and few other people before I finish it, but I think it's going to be a somewhat meaningfull work. The scales are invented by me, using valued opinions, so they are not perfect but I think if I asked a bunch of people who understand math/physics as well as football, that they'd agree it has merit and use. We'll see though. It's just getting started. It will probably be an end of the season thing.

Will salary cap be a factor in determining roster value? Obviously a salary cap forces a club to decide on a core group of guys who will make the biggest piece of the pie collectively, and the rest of the roster will divide up the remaining money spent towards the cap. It sounds like an interesting study. Here are some additional resources you may wish to tap for ideas.

feedback@pro-football-reference.com They might have some ideas

Dr. David Romer and economics professor at Cal Berkeley wrote an interesting article related to the NFL, kind of a statistical analysis about going for it on fourth down early in the game and how it affects outcomes:

http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2002/08/19_ftball.html

To possibly pick Dr. Romer's brain about your idea of roster value, here is his UC Berkeley web page:

http://emlab.berkeley.edu/econ/faculty/romer_d.shtml

It would be way cool if you bounced your ideas off of him and he responded.

There's always Elias too:

Elias Sports Bureau Inc
500 5th Avenue, New York, NY 10110
phone: (212) 869-1530

Here is a web site after your heart, JH. They might provide you with another place from which to bounce ideas:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=934

contact@coldhardfootballfacts.com (they encourage new ideas for stats, articles on their site)

Good Luck! Sounds interesting. If you ever need research assistance of any kind, PM me.

The upload site for Packerrats nation that is detailed in one of the sticky notes at the top of the first forum page explains how to share files to the site. Basically you can just email an attachment to packerrat@onlinefilefolder.com and view the contents of the folder at:

http://www.onlinefilefolder.com/index.php?action=getshare&type=1&user_num=57737&share_id=3286&hash=770e304857ac6221c308f0b5f992f1d2

Current URL [close]

Change URL to

[woodbuck27]

UFA's don't sign for "bargains." That's why they go that route. Either that or they aren't valued by their own team and are essentially let go.

Here are some bargains TT has signed...

Aaron Kampman, Donald Driver, Al Harris, Nick Barnett and Cullen Jenkins

TT came within a whisker of losing Kampman to the Vikings. It shoud never have gone that far. TT scared the wits out of me on that late signing and was unnecessary given Aarons work ethic.

Kampman the ultimate in the trenchs Packer. We are so fortunate he remained with us.

Donald Driver, Al Harris, Nick Barnett and Cullen Jenkins were all no brainers fr. a Packer fan standpoint. All very solid in their contributions.

TT blew it on the Randy Moss episode. Asleep at the wheel. . .or was he committed to acquiring this obvious talented WR.

Imagine the difficulty that the opposition Ds would have had trying to cover both DD and Randy Moss.

The offensive punch that would have been afforded us, with those two WRs, and especially in light of our lousy running game and resultant demands to pass is just mindbogling.

We very well could have had Moss for a third (07), and may argue will pay of long term by drafting WR James Jones with that pick.

I disagree that TT had a sound off season. The fact we are 5-1 is due to an overall reduction of strength in the lower tiers of teams in the NFL and the fact some teams maybe Philly and certainly San Diego started slow.

I have to rush out or would elaborate.

I would not extend either MM or TT at this time.

MM has another season - on contract and we need more time to decide if he can handle the pressure of the game. I believe that MM works very hard and is dedicated to be a better HC and to Packer winning.

I want to see some change fr. TT.

GO PACKERS !

[BallHawk]

I disagree that TT had a sound off season. The fact we are 5-1 is due to an overall reduction of strength in the lower tiers of teams in the NFL and the fact some teams maybe Philly and certainly San Diego started slow.

You can phrase it any way you want Woody, but we're 5-1 and almost a sure lock to make the playoffs. That means the GM is doing something right.

[Tarlam!]

I have to rush out or would elaborate.

[vince]

TT came within a whisker of losing Kampman to the Vikings. It shoud never have gone that far. TT scared the wits out of me on that late signing and was unnecessary given Aarons work ethic.

Kampman the ultimate in the trenchs Packer. We are so fortunate he remained with us.

Kudos to TT for signing Aaron Kampman! My God, Woody. I am amazed by your insistence on criticizing a man for doing what you approve of! None of us know how specific negotiations go. The deal got done. Aaron Kampman is another big bargain signing by Ted Thompson, and you feel the need to criticize him for it?

And Woody, don't make excuses for wins. With the possible exception of the Vikings, the teams that the Packers beat are all very solid teams in this league.

[The Shadow]

I would make extending Thompson's contract a top priority for the Green Bay Packers.

[Scott Campbell]

I would make extending Thompson's contract a top priority for the Green Bay Packers.

I like what I'm seeing, but I agree with Michele. He's got plenty of time on his existing deal. Extend him prior to the end of next season if the team continues to improve.

MM is a different story. He can't head into next year with just 1 year left on his deal. That would make him a lame duck. I might start negotiation now, but probably wouldn't ink the deal until we clinched a playoff spot.

At 5-1, I like our chances. But if this team does the unexpected and takes a nose dive, I really don't want either guy wrapped up with a longer commitment.

[Scott Campbell]

TT came within a whisker of losing Kampman to the Vikings. It shoud never have gone that far. TT scared the wits out of me on that late signing and was unnecessary given Aarons work ethic.

Kampman the ultimate in the trenchs Packer.

Well I'm sorry Ted scared you. I'm sure it wasn't intentional. But now it's time to change your undies and move on.

You don't get docked points for "almost" losing a guy any more than you get credit for "almost" signing Moss. But you seem willing to argue both sides of any point as long as it involves vilifying Ted. Hatred is not good for your soul Woody.

Finally, Kampman is very good, but Reggie was the ultimate.

[RashanGary]

No need to extend TT right now. I'd wait till his last season and if things are continuing upward they way they have since 4-12, I'd pay him like a top 5 GM.

[retailguy]

No need to extend TT right now. I'd wait till his last season and if things are continuing upward they way they have since 4-12, I'd pay him like a top 5 GM.

I disagree. after 6 games of very strange football, and 2 previous seasons of 12-20 football, the time to extend him is NOW while his value is lower - just like you all laud him for doing with the players. Now is the time for a BARGAIN.

I think the duration should be about 45 years or so, with a "no death" clause in the contract. His ass is NOT sneaking out of here like Lombardi did with a move to Washington, followed by an untimely death....

When you've got a "future star" in the making and it is clear to every learned and not so learned mind, you MUST act. You MUST NOT WAIT, or, like Moss he'll end up in New England with all of the rest of the good players/coaches.