Predict the record after the bye week

[RashanGary]

I think they'll win some they should lose and lose some they should win. With that in mind, I'm going to give them a chance of winning in % for each game, average that and project it over the course of the season.

@ Denver 70%
@ KC 65%
Minnesota 65%
Carolina 55%
@Detroit 50%
@Dallas 40%
Oakland 75%
@St Louis 85%
@Chicago 55%
Detroit 65%


Average chance to win 62.5%

Carried out over 10 games = 6 wins

Final record = 11-5 with a bye week in the playoffs and a home game in Lambeau.


If this young team grows like young teams typically do, this could be a very dangerous team in the playoffs!!

[RashanGary]

The bye week in the playoffs is a big deal.

6 weeks on
bye
10 weeks on
bye
playoffs


I would say the Packers stand a very good chance to be playing in the NFC championship game, and if they improve their run game over the course of the next 10 games, they also have a good chance to be the NFC representative in the SB (where they'll get thrashed by NE, Indy or Pitt)

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'd say Dallas is lower than 40%. At Denver and at KC might be a tad much. Those are tough places to win. I might be the only one, but I kind of like your little formula here.

[superfan]

I could quibble over the percentages, but 6-4 over the next ten games and finishing at 11-5 sounds about right.

If anything the record over the first 6 games suggests that this might even be a little pessimistic. But there are indicators (lack of a sustainable running game, few serious injuries) that this team might have been a little more fortunate than good over the first 6 games.

[Guiness]

Detroit at 50%, eh? I guess the fact that it's the turkey game shaved 10 points off of that.

I think your %ages are about right aside from the Detroit games...HW is probably right about the Dallas game.

[vince]

This is undoubtedly the kiss of death, and it doesn't change your projected win total, but I personally would increase the percentage of win over Carolina at home to 65%.

Carolina hasn't beat anyone, and while I haven't seen either of their losses, they appear to have been beaten soundly by Houston and Tampa Bay.

With Delhomme done for the year (I know, Vinnie's back in town...), the Packers appear to me to be clearly superior. Stop Smith (I think we can), and you beat the Panthers.

[Tarlam!]

Considering when we were making our season predictions earlier in the year, most of us had a 3-3 record going into the bye week as an over achievement. This was based on our "tough" schedule early.

Most of us thought a play off berth would only be possible if we capitalize on our relatively "weak" schedule after the Denver game. Aside from Romo's Rowdies, no other team has suggested they are better than we thought. Perhaps the Vikings due to the revelation that Peterson at RB has been.

Anyway, I thought 9 wins were possible and only had 2 predicted before the bye. So, I had us going 8-2 from here on out, though I thought Carolina would be tough. Switching Carolina to a "W", and Dallas to an "L", I see no reason we can't go 8-2, except if we don't play our starters against Detroit in the final. That would still make us 7-3, and a grand total of:


12 - 4

But don't be taking that to the bank, just because I said so. Everybody here knows I know nothing about football!

[b bulldog]

I think they will lose at Dalllas,Detroit,Denver and KC.

[Tarlam!]

I think they will lose at Dalllas,Detroit,Denver and KC.

If so, Dallas will take home field throughout. They have a very similar schedule to us remaining.

Giants and Jets, Philly and Washington both twice, Us, Minnie and Detroit from the NFC N, and Carolina.

I hope Minnie rips 'em a new one today.

[KYPack]

The title of the thread threw me off.

Does any of our resident "Stat Geeks" know what our record in the game after the bye week is?

I was curious to know the effect of a week off on the team.

[Kak]

The title of the thread threw me off.

Does any of our resident "Stat Geeks" know what our record in the game after the bye week is?

I was curious to know the effect of a week off on the team.

The bye week started in the 1990 season. One year, 1993, each team had two bye weeks.

The Packers are 10 and 8. 11 of the games have been on the road. Green Bay is 4 and 7 in those games. 6-1 at home.

Green Bay has won 5 of the last 6.

Denver will be the first opponent other than Tampa, Miami or Minnesota since 1999, a span of 8 games. The last 5 have been Miami, 3 in a row against Minnesota, and Miami last year.

Overall, the Packers are 52-47 (.525) before the break and 106-67 (.613) after.

For the OP, I will be happy to see 5-5. Six days on the road scare me. Three sets of back to back.

I do like the last four games, though. I hope they keep them as noon games, as I'm not convinced this team is ready for the spotlight.

[GrnBay007]

Good info Kak, thanks

[BallHawk]

I agree with Kak, the last 4 games look to be a good time to pad the record and work out the kinks.

[RashanGary]

Welcome, Kak

Solid 2nd post. We can never have enough stataticians!!

[3irty1]

I'd say Dallas is lower than 40%. At Denver and at KC might be a tad much. Those are tough places to win. I might be the only one, but I kind of like your little formula here.

I'd say 50% at Dallas, 55% at Denver, 60% at KC. That would equal 5.5 wins over 10 games.