PackerRat Predictions-Week 9

[MJZiggy]

This weeks Ranks are in Check 'em out HERE!!

This should end the argument about who will win this week...

[MadtownPacker]

23rd in yards per play (4.8) and 27th on third down (35%)

The way the stats show look the Pack defense should have a huge day against the chiefs. They get pressure on whoever the chief's QB is and they can control the game.

[Fosco33]

The number in parentheses after the team name, for example (Packers (11.75) ) is the average ranking of lots of key stats.

The best average could be 1.00 and the worst would be 32.00. In reality, some teams have good offenses and bad defenses (or vice versa) - or they have a bad TOP or TO Margin - or they can't score or let up too many points. Those even out when applied to an overall contribution (% varies by predictability of stat). That's why the Packers are about the 9th rated team.

Overall, there are about 6 groups - or tiers - of teams. Below is a chart that groups teams together.

[Bretsky]

Interesting stuff Fosco

Normally I am very good at picking games. This year I've sucked in my pick em pool and have been very average.

Last week after another rough week I stated I'd use your calculated picks. I'm going to use every one except for the Saints as I think they will win.

Normally I would have probably picked the Bills and the Chiefs (gut feeling the more I think about it), but I"m rolling with your stuff.

Hopefully it will bring me luck

[HarveyWallbangers]

Overall, there are about 6 groups - or tiers - of teams. Below is a chart that groups teams together.

Your stats appear to show that the Vikings are better than the Lions. You might have to adjust your rankings.


Maybe some of the old indicators aren't as valid nowadays?

[Fosco33]

Overall, there are about 6 groups - or tiers - of teams. Below is a chart that groups teams together.

Your stats appear to show that the Vikings are better than the Lions. You might have to adjust your rankings.


Maybe some of the old indicators aren't as valid nowadays?

Stats can't tell the whole story - they won't tell of the missed field goal in a first half that forced a team to go for it on 4th down in the 4th Q down by 4... they don't put that 'x' factor out there.

Often times, I've seen the Colts get nailed by my system and the Packer be 'overrated' in terms of wins vs. ranks.

I agree - there are two picks this week that don't feel right with the gut - in my spread pool - I'll make those 'feel' type adjustments. The Saints and Bills have a great shot to win - those close ones are tough to predict.

[Partial]

I really like reading these. Do you compile any data on opponents winning percentage for each team? It'd be interesting to figure out what the winning percentage of our opponent's opponents have been. So far our opposition has won approximately 55% of their games. I wonder how their opposition has faired.

[Guiness]

Interesting Fosco - I like it.

The two areas the Chiefs are ahead of us in is only by a marginal amount - one more turnover, 0.2yds allowed/per play.

Of course, does this matter on the field? Meh...no.

[BEARMAN]

Da BEARS will NOT loose today !

[packinpatland]

Da BEARS will NOT loose today !

Do they have a by-week???

[MJZiggy]

[Fosco33]

Interesting Fosco - I like it.

The two areas the Chiefs are ahead of us in is only by a marginal amount - one more turnover, 0.2yds allowed/per play.

Of course, does this matter on the field? Meh...no.

Agreed - and while the turnover margin is a decent indicator - an adjusted margin would be better (taking away end of half/end of game INTs that were 'non' plays).

[Fosco33]

I really like reading these. Do you compile any data on opponents winning percentage for each team? It'd be interesting to figure out what the winning percentage of our opponent's opponents have been. So far our opposition has won approximately 55% of their games. I wonder how their opposition has faired.

Rather than recreate the wheel - here's a link that has all teams. I used pieces of this when I just did the rankings.... I'd need to build a little database to keep that going - so why not use what's out there

http://realtimerpi.com/nfl/Men.html

[Bretsky]

I really like reading these. Do you compile any data on opponents winning percentage for each team? It'd be interesting to figure out what the winning percentage of our opponent's opponents have been. So far our opposition has won approximately 55% of their games. I wonder how their opposition has faired.

Rather than recreate the wheel - here's a link that has all teams. I used pieces of this when I just did the rankings.... I'd need to build a little database to keep that going - so why not use what's out there

http://realtimerpi.com/nfl/Men.html

My confidence pool week is in your formula's hands.

On the one game we disagreed upon I put low points on

[Fosco33]

I really like reading these. Do you compile any data on opponents winning percentage for each team? It'd be interesting to figure out what the winning percentage of our opponent's opponents have been. So far our opposition has won approximately 55% of their games. I wonder how their opposition has faired.

Rather than recreate the wheel - here's a link that has all teams. I used pieces of this when I just did the rankings.... I'd need to build a little database to keep that going - so why not use what's out there

http://realtimerpi.com/nfl/Men.html

My confidence pool week is in your formula's hands.

On the one game we disagreed upon I put low points on

Guess we'll see - to start the season, I just picked by gut - then switched to this and went from like 20th to 4th in the pool.

I always place low confidence on at least 3 or 4 games that I don't agree with the prediction. I also take a look at public pools in straight up games - the people tend to be right!

Good luck (for me and you)