Packers favored by 3.5 over Lions

[FritzDontBlitz]

I am trying to understand why you guys keep claiming Green Bay can't stop the run after they held Adrian Peterson to 45 yards.

Oh wait, that was due to the bounties, wasn't it?

Sheesh.

[Carolina_Packer]

In some ways, I don't think their pass defense is that bad. They rank among the league leaders in sacks and they are first in interceptions with 15. This game will come down to line play. If we don't get pressure, we'll give up points. We also have to pass protect. I don't think Detroit will sit back in coverage like the last two opponents. I think they'll blitz more. Detroit's DL always seems to play it's best game in the Dome against Green Bay. This game is close to a tossup.

Yeah but the Lions can't run the ball and they are horrible on third down. They may have a "good" secondary but who have they beaten with a good passing attack?

Wins - Pass Ranking
-----------------------
Oakland - 30th
Minnesota - 31st
Chicago - 14th
Tamps Bay - 16th
Chicago - 14th
Denver - 13th

Losses - Pass Ranking
--------------------------
Philadelphia - 11th
Washington - 24th
Arizona - 12th
New York Giants - 20th

The best passing team statistically they have faced was Phlly at #11 and they blew Detroit out 56-21.

Remaining - Pass Ranking
------------------------------
Green Bay - 1st
Minnesota - 31st
Dallas - 3rd
San Diego - 25th
Kansas City - 17th
Green Bay - 1st

Detroit ranks 30th against the pass in yards, 2nd in interceptions, 3rd in sacks, but they rank 3rd in receiving touchdowns allowed. They rank 8th in total rushing defensive yards and 5th at yards per carry allowed. Their offense is in a similar position as ours. We are ranked 6th in scoring and they are ranked 7th offensively. However defensively we are ranked 3rd and they are ranked 24th in points allowed. The top offense we faced in passing was Philly as well at 11th. Detroit is ranked 9th overall. So this game will be the best passing offense that both teams have seen this season (on paper).

Outside of the Thanksgiving Day hex, I like our chances in this game. We know we can't stop the run well, but the Lions don't run the ball, they rely on the pass to set up the run. We may not have the sacks but we have to lead the league in pressure (if that is even a category). We definitely have two of the best CB's in the game and Rouse is playing pretty well in Collins' absence. Bush seems to be playing better lately.

Like Favre has said numerous times this season: This team doesn't know it's not supposed to be 9-1 because it's so young. It also doesn't know it is supposed to lose on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit either.

Good info, Merlin! The Packers are 3rd overall in scoring defense, which I guess is ultimately what counts. 7th in yards/game and only three rushing TD's is still pretty good. I think we are more stout against the run than you indicate. Not Pittsburgh Steelers stout, but top 10.

[LL2]

I know this isn't related to this thread, but did anyone see that the Patriots are favored by 22 points?

[RashanGary]

Nice post, Merlin.

[oregonpackfan]

I know this isn't related to this thread, but did anyone see that the Patriots are favored by 22 points?

The way the Patriots are playing, that 22 points may be on the conservative side.

[CaliforniaCheez]

I know this isn't related to this thread, but did anyone see that the Patriots are favored by 22 points?

It's nice to see I'm appriciated and my posts get read.

[HarveyWallbangers]

It's nice to see I'm appriciated and my posts get read.

[Rastak]

I am trying to understand why you guys keep claiming Green Bay can't stop the run after they held Adrian Peterson to 45 yards.

Oh wait, that was due to the bounties, wasn't it?

Sheesh.

He did average 4.4 yards a carry and generally runs harder in the second half this year. It's very hard to say what he might have ended up with had he not been injured. However, as flat as the Vikings were and and sharp as Green Bay was, I'm guessing the score would have forced the Vikings to throw alot in the 4th quarter.

[Scott Campbell]

I am trying to understand why you guys keep claiming Green Bay can't stop the run after they held Adrian Peterson to 45 yards.

Oh wait, that was due to the bounties, wasn't it?

Sheesh.

He did average 4.4 yards a carry and generally runs harder in the second half this year. It's very hard to say what he might have ended up with had he not been injured. However, as flat as the Vikings were and and sharp as Green Bay was, I'm guessing the score would have forced the Vikings to throw alot in the 4th quarter.

I couldn't watch the game live, and read the game thread here before watching the tape. He looked far better to me on tape than he did in the perception I got from the game thread.

The problem with the Vikings is that AP plays possibly the strongest position on the team. As good as he is, his ability to upgrade your team was diminished because Taylor is so good too.

Imagine the Lions with AP, and the Vikings with CJ. Both teams would be better.