ESPN Insider Notes after 12 games

[motife]

One of the league's most generous owners, Jim Irsay of Indianapolis has provided his private jet for Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne to attend the Monday funeral of Redskins safety Sean Taylor in South Florida. Although they share an alma mater, Wayne and Taylor never played together at the University of Miami. However, the two often worked out together in the offseason and had become close friends.


• The Colts have quietly started discussing a contract extension for free safety Bob Sanders, who will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in the spring. The talks are in the very early stages and a deal isn't close yet, but Indianapolis isn't about to let an impact defender such as Sanders escape as a free agent.

• Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Rick Neuheisel is not only a candidate for the head coach job at Georgia Tech but also could come under consideration by UCLA if the Bruins fire Karl Dorrell. Although the Georgia Tech people have some misgivings about Neuheisel, his stock there was helped when Randy Edsall, who had interviewed for the job Thursday, decided Sunday to remain at Connecticut.

• Now that Les Miles has decided to stay at LSU, the rumors might finally cease that Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio would have been interested in the plum college job had it become available. Del Rio quietly lobbied for the position at LSU a few years ago. His contract with the Jaguars runs only through the 2008 season, and he might need to win a playoff game this season, which he has failed to do so far, to earn an extension.

• Jacksonville offensive lineman Maurice Williams, who reworked his contract to take a pay cut but also void the final two years of the deal, has played pretty well since moving into the lineup at right guard because of injuries to others. Williams was the team's former starter at right tackle, but he lost his job when Jacksonville signed Tony Pashos as a free agent this spring. Now that Williams is eligible for free agency after this season, he could generate some pretty good interest. And the fact he has proved to be versatile enough to play guard in 2007 might help drive up his price a little.

• With the back problems middle linebacker Brian Urlacher has been experiencing this season, Chicago management might hold off on the contract upgrade the Bears had talked about presenting to him. The team could spend some of that money on weakside linebacker Lance Briggs, who might be playing even better in 2007 than in the previous two seasons, each of which earned him a Pro Bowl invitation. Briggs has backtracked on his insistence that he would never re-sign with the Bears, and the team has begun to rethink its stance on giving him a long-term contract.

• Keep an eye on Cleveland secondary coach Mel Tucker as a defensive coordinator candidate in the league in the next few years. Tucker, who has been in the NFL only since 2005, has done a very nice job with the Browns' young defensive backs, particularly with safety Sean Jones this season.

• Despite their ability to overcome injuries and keep winning, the Colts really need to get their offensive line straightened out. Peyton Manning is taking more hits this season than he has in several years.

• League scouts will be stunned if Arkansas tailback Darren McFadden does not bypass his final college season to enter the 2008 draft. The early consensus is that McFadden would be the top-rated prospect in the draft pool.

[motife]

NFC Playoff Picture

Dallas Cowboys
Current record: 11-1
Projected record: 14-2
Result: NFC East champion
Seed: No. 1
They are the Patriots of the NFC with no glaring weaknesses, tons of confidence, a decent closing schedule and a pretty clear path to Super Bowl XLII. Tony Romo is playing at a Pro Bowl level and he has an array of offensive weapons at his disposal. Defensively, the Cowboys are really starting to come on and get more aggressive each week. They play three of their four final games on the road (only Philadelphia is at home) but Detroit, Carolina and Washington is not a terrifying road schedule. None of their remaining opponents are playing particularly well at the moment, so this should be an easy road for the Cowboys. They could run the table unless they decide to rest a lot of players.

Green Bay Packers
Current record: 10-2
Projected record: 13-3
Result: NFC North champion
Seed: No. 2
A little luster came off the Packers' magical season with a loss at Dallas, but this is still a team that will play at home in January until it returns to Dallas for the NFC Championship Game. The Packers' schedule is manageable with remaining home games versus Oakland and Detroit and two road games at St. Louis and Chicago. Of those four teams, only Detroit is in playoff contention -- and the Lions are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. The Packers may drop one of those games, but they will be healthy and well-rested for a magical January run with the incomparable Brett Favre.

Seattle Seahawks
Current record: 8-4
Projected record: 11-5
Result: NFC West champion
Seed: No. 3
After being the most underwhelming projected division winner in the NFL for most of the season, the Seahawks are starting to look like a real team. They could enter the playoffs with solid momentum, even if they are coming out of a weak division. They have a big game Sunday versus Arizona and a win will probably wrap up the division. Two of their final three games are on the road -- at Carolina and Atlanta, with Baltimore at home -- but all those contests are winnable. Matt Hasselbeck is carrying this offense with the passing game and the defense is playing better -- so who needs Shaun Alexander?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current record: 8-4
Projected record: 12-4
Result: NFC South champion
Seed: No. 4
The Bucs have quietly turned into a solid playoff contender and will win the NFC South despite the fact that it looks like they are doing it with mirrors. Jon Gruden is playing with a backup running back and quarterback, a 36-year-old wide receiver and a revamped offense. The Bucs have a very promising closing schedule -- Houston, Atlanta, San Francisco and Carolina -- that could give them a full head of steam heading into January. This is a team nobody will want to play.

New York Giants
Current record: 8-4
Projected record: 10-6
Result: wild card
Seed: No. 5
The Giants are truly a Jekyll and Hyde team. You never know what personality will show up each week. With an inconsistent quarterback, it's tough to predict how they will play down the stretch, but they have a lot of talent and enough of a cushion to back into the playoffs. The Giants have a tough closing schedule -- at Philadelphia, Washington, at Buffalo and closing at home against the Patriots (and who knows what will be at stake in that game). A split (2-2) finish to the season would be a positive.

Minnesota Vikings
Current record: 6-6
Projected record: 9-7
Result: wild card
Seed: No. 6
This may be the most dangerous second-tier NFC team right now. Nobody has more momentum than the Vikings have heading into the playoffs and nobody will want to play them in January. They have an excellent run defense, the most dominant run offense in the NFL and improving quarterback play. They should win at San Francisco on Sunday and follow it up with two home wins over Chicago and Washington before traveling to Denver in Week 17 -- and who knows how hard the Broncos will play with no hope for the playoffs. Look for the Vikings to win three of those four and enter the playoffs as a dangerous out in January.

On the Outside Looking In

Arizona Cardinals
Current record: 6-6
Projected record: 8-8
Their win Sunday over Cleveland kept the Cardinals in the playoff hunt and this is a fun, young team to watch. They have a defining division game Sunday at Seattle and if they can steal a win, that really makes thing interesting. After that, the Cardinals have another tough road game at New Orleans before closing out at home versus Atlanta and St. Louis. Not exactly a formidable schedule, but they probably need to beat Seattle and then win two of their last three to fight the Vikings for the final wild-card spot, but it all starts Sunday in Seattle.

Detroit Lions
Current record: 6-6
Projected record: 6-10

They are fading fast and the 10-win season promised by Jon Kitna is a distant memory. Their pass-heavy offense doesn't scare anybody on defense, they don't protect the quarterback and they don't play with enough consistency. The Lions' closing schedule is brutal -- Dallas, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Green Bay -- and they may not win another game. They might have playoff hopes now, but they won't last for long.

Gary Horton, a pro scout for Scouts Inc., has been a football talent evaluator for more than 30 years. He spent 10 years in the NFL and 10 years at the college level before launching a private scouting firm called The War Room.

[motife]

Joyner: Best/worst Week 14 receiver matchups
By KC Joyner December 6, 2007, 4:39 PM

They say to "play it safe" in the fantasy playoffs and to not take any chances. But what if you are lacking studs at a few key positions and are facing a powerhouse fantasy squad? That might be a good time to use a risk-reward guy who has a tendency for the occasional big game. You shouldn't roll the dice with all your selections, but it never hurts to throw one of those guys into the mix.

Starts

Santana Moss, Redskins: Moss is owned in 73 percent of ESPN.com leagues even though he has posted four or fewer points in three of his past five games. The reason fantasy owners are keeping him around is because when he is on, Moss can put up dominant numbers. That could happen any given week. Case in point would be his 18-point game against Dallas in Week 11.

Moss' prospects for a dominant game are quite good in Week 14. With Nathan Vasher likely to miss another start -- he is currently listed as doubtful -- because of a groin injury, Moss will be matched up against Ricky Manning Jr. Manning is quite poor in coverage (I have him rated as an F), so Moss has an excellent chance to score on a deep ball -- or two.

Amani Toomer, Giants: Toomer has been an up-and-down fantasy player this year. His point totals over the past seven weeks have been as follows: 14, 9, 1, 3, 3, 8 and 12. He's worth starting during the big weeks, but he is just as likely to hurt your team if you play him in the bad weeks.

In Week 14, he has a good chance of having one of his big weeks. First of all, Toomer is facing Lito Sheppard, who has been struggling this year (I have him graded in the C/C-plus range). Add to this the difficulties Plaxico Burress is likely to have (see below), and it means Toomer should see a lot of passes thrown his way.

Kevin Curtis, Eagles: Curtis is on a big-time roll, with 30 fantasy points over his past three games. He is also becoming the centerpiece of the Eagles' passing game, as his performance against Seattle last week clearly indicates. In that game, Curtis had 13 passes thrown his way, which is very high. The league leaders average about 10 targets per game.

Curtis' matchup is also fairly favorable. Sam Madison has had more cold than hot games this season (I have him rated as a C-plus). Combine these factors, and you have surefire "reward" upside from Curtis.

Sits

Donald Driver, Packers: After a midseason slump, Driver has been putting up consistently good fantasy points of late. He has 34 fantasy points over the past four weeks, and his 26 receptions over that span have made him a fantasy-points monster in point-per-reception leagues.

Despite his hot play, Driver will have more than a bit of trouble Sunday with Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha is playing at a Pro Bowl level, and Green Bay likely will throw away from Driver and target the rest of the Raiders' secondary.

Calvin Johnson, Lions: The general consensus is that Johnson will see the ball a lot more now that Roy Williams (knee) is out indefinitely. Driver's 10- and 14-point fantasy games in Weeks 12 and 13, respectively, also give fantasy coaches a lot of faith in his upside.

As good as those omens are, the omen that makes me suggest sitting Johnson this week is his matchup against Terence Newman. Offenses tend to avoid Newman (he is rated as a B-plus in my charts), so Johnson likely won't be the primary passing target this week.

Plaxico Burress, Giants: Burress owners keep hoping he will return to his early-season form. He posted touchdowns in each of the Giants' first six games and never had fewer than eight fantasy points during that span. Since then, Burress has regressed badly and has totaled more than eight fantasy points in only one game.

That might normally keep Burress from appearing on this list, but two factors made me include him: (1) He is owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, so there are lot of owners still counting on him; and (2) given the difficulties the Eagles have had in defending the pass of late, Burress looks to be a safe starting option.

The bad news for Burress owners is that he is all set to face off against Sheldon Brown, who has been the only Eagles pass defender playing well (I have him listed as a B-minus/B). Burress' ankle injury has also been slowing him more each week, so that doesn't bode well for him either.

Sleepers

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Arnaz Battle, 49ers: I don't normally put players on this list in consecutive weeks, but I'll make an exception with Battle. The reason is that, despite putting up seven or more points in each of the past four weeks, Battle is owned in only 9.5 percent of ESPN leagues. His matchup this week is slated to be Antoine Winfield, who is still bothered by a hamstring injury (he's listed as questionable for this week). Battle has been the 49ers' go-to receiver, and even if Winfield does play, that isn't likely to change this week.

Sidney Rice, Vikings: Fantasy owners already know what this guy can do -- he has 25 fantasy points in the past two weeks -- yet he is owned in only 4.0 percent of ESPN leagues. It might sound crazy to consider starting a No. 3 wide receiver on the Vikings, but Rice's production, and his matchup against Shawntae Spencer (rated as an F-plus in my charts), both suggest he is a solid play in Week 14.

Bryant Johnson, Cardinals: The Cardinals' passing game has been on fire of late, and Johnson has been a beneficiary of that. His 19 fantasy points the past two games are nearly double his fantasy total (10) in the previous five games.

Part of his production burst is because he played against the weak 49ers and Browns secondaries. The Seahawks' secondary isn't as bad off as those secondaries, but they do have some coverage weaknesses. Jordan Babineaux, Seattle's nickle back, would qualify as one of those (I have him rated as a C-minus/D-plus in my charts). Johnson has some upside because of that.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.

[motife]

Campbell eyes season finale returnposted: Friday, December 7, 2007 | Print Entry

Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell has a chance to play the final game of the season as long as he rehabs his knee injury well. No surgery is going to be needed, which is a surprise for a dislocated knee cap. Expect Todd Collins to start the next two weeks. If Campbell comes along well, he could play in the season-finale against the Dallas Cowboys.

Grossman lost for season: Bears quarterback Rex Grossman has a sprained MCL, which should end his season but won't require surgery. The recovery period for this injury is about a month, but the good news for Grossman is that he won't have to carry the injury into the offseason. Grossman is a free agent after the season. Though he would like to stay in Chicago, he realizes the Bears won't make him a $10 million a year offer. Brian Griese will get the starting job for the final three games. The team may even take a look at Kyle Orton a little in the final week or two.

A tough call: The NFL did the right thing in not fining head linesman Phil McKinnely for comments made during the final minutes of the Ravens-Patriots game. Ravens players knew they were going to get fined. They questioned the officiating and the integrity of the officiating, claiming the Patriots were getting favorable treatment. McKinnley, a former player, showed some emotion in telling players to "Just play, boy, just play." That's not strong enough to fine him. The league warned officials and players to show respect on the field. In the meantime, four Ravens players, including Ravens linebacker Bart Scott, who was fined $25,000, received a total of $70,000 in fines. It's a warning by the NFL to have players respect the officials of the game.

Vote of confidence: Eagles vice president Joe Banner went on the radio Thursday and said he expects quarterback Donovan McNabb and head coach Andy Reid to be back next year. Everyone figured the Eagles ownership to fully support Reid. The only way he won't be the coach is if he decides to step away for family reasons, but Reid plans to coach. It will still be interesting if teams make an offer on McNabb. For the equivalent of two second-round picks -- if that is the offer -- it would be advisable for the Eagles to keep McNabb.

Linehan likely to return: Anyone thinking Rams coach Scott Linehan isn't going to get a third chance to coach the Rams next season only needs to look at the team's injury list. He opened the season by losing his starting offensive line. He's lost 78 starts so far because of injuries. This week, he probably lost his top two quarterbacks. Marc Bulger had a setback coming back from his concussion injury. Gus Frerotte suffered a shoulder injury and is probably going to miss Sunday's game against the Bengals. Brock Berlin is probably going to be the starter. Todd Boumann, signed the other day, could be the backup. Linehan deserves a mulligan for this season.

Near end of the line? The decision by the Texans to give up on Ahman Green by putting him on injured reserve could end his NFL career. Green had knee problems for the past few years in Green Bay, but the Packers and Texans thought he could squeeze out another year or two. The knee just never got healthy. Green's had a great career. He was explosive and a great leader. He signed a one-year contract, but the only way he might be back next year on a team is if he's willing to take a chance and sign for the NFL minimum, which he may not be interested in doing.

[Fritz]

Okay, this is the kind of over-the-top, generalized bullsh-t that passes for "expertise" or "insider info" these days:

About the Vikings -"This may be the most dangerous second-tier NFC team right now. Nobody has more momentum than the Vikings have heading into the playoffs and nobody will want to play them in January."

Nobody has more momentum than the Vikings heading into the playoffs? Umm, there are four games left. What if the Queens lose their last two?

I can't stand this type of bandwagon crap. A team wins three in a row in September or Novemberand they're the sure bet to get into the Super Bowl, and another team loses its last game of the regular season and they're toast.

A number of teams look like crap toward the end of the season yet come back to win in the playoffs. I believe the year the Broncos won against the Pack in the SB they lost their last regular season game. If not that team, there are other examples. If you're a fan and you say this stuff, that's fine. But htese people get paid to have insight, and this crap doesn't pass muster.