2008 Financial Thread

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Is anyone out there with money laying around checking out the foreclosures?? This housing bust can't last forever. Seems like there are some incredible deals out there right now.

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I live in sub prime nirvana...az..and the mortgage brokers..and I mean real brokers..not the guy that switched from selling cars the minute the market got hot..are all telling me that at the minimum a year. Tyrone's brother, who is a very financially viable guy has his bankers saying pretty much the same.

I dont' think many on this board realize how many bad loans are out there. Those no doc loans were given to anybody with ok credit..so every bartender, waiter, person who earned off tips..got a place on. Now, they are screwed because you need to show some sorta earning..and they can't do it. They can't afford the new payments after the arm term ends..nor can they refi as they can't prove earnings.

Every week there are more commercials for REDC and buying properties at auction. Ty's crackhead friend went to buy a property that the bank had bought after foreclosure (poor bastard had left 100k in equity in the place)...house at one time valued at 650...bank offered it at 395...property sold at 375.

And, let's not forget the other countries like India, Australia, UK that are also going thru their own sub prime problems.

[The Leaper]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

[Partial]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

[Tyrone Bigguns]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

Ty moved to AZ two years ago at the height of the market..when Ty's good friend had his modest 1700 sq ft. house go from 180 to 310 in less than a year. Ty was incredulous.

Ty's friend's girfriends friend had a house in Sdale valued at one time at 750k...now she is happy cause realtor getting people to look at it at 450K.

Ty heard many people tell him to buy. Ty, being the contrarian and often a pariah, said no. Ty rented and continues to do so now. Ty was told by many that he was throwing money away. Ty laughed. Ty knows that housing is not always the best investment. Ty knows that the american dream is just that..a dream.

Ty's friend is a heavyweight banker in chi-town. Ty's friend was financing a condo conversion in Tempe. Your basic college type apartment. One closet per bedroom..no storage space, etc. Ty went to the chic opening of it. Ty's fell on the ground in paroxyms of laughter when told that a 2 br/2bath/800 sq feet was 250K.

Ty will be scooping up a very nice condo next year. Ty owned a home. Ty is lazy. Ty wants no part of yard work, etc.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

Partial,

are you a commie. Are you against the free market?

[Partial]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

Partial,

are you a commie. Are you against the free market?

No, but you have to wonder what is going to happen to housing prices when the supply is of epic proportions and the demand rises at the rate of the population growth.

Unfortunately, I see prices taking a nose dive. It is unfortunate because my Mom was planning on moving in the next few years.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

Partial,

are you a commie. Are you against the free market?

No, but you have to wonder what is going to happen to housing prices when the supply is of epic proportions and the demand rises at the rate of the population growth.

Unfortunately, I see prices taking a nose dive. It is unfortunate because my Mom was planning on moving in the next few years.

That is the free market. America love it..or get out.

No wondering at all. Prices will go down.

[Scott Campbell]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

And that is at the heart of the matter. There were people in houses who couldn't afford them to begin with. There were valid reasons that prior to 5 years ago you couldn't get a no money down home. This had to end badly.

[Scott Campbell]

Is anyone out there with money laying around checking out the foreclosures?? This housing bust can't last forever. Seems like there are some incredible deals out there right now.

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I live in sub prime nirvana...az..and the mortgage brokers..and I mean real brokers..not the guy that switched from selling cars the minute the market got hot..are all telling me that at the minimum a year. Tyrone's brother, who is a very financially viable guy has his bankers saying pretty much the same.

I dont' think many on this board realize how many bad loans are out there. Those no doc loans were given to anybody with ok credit..so every bartender, waiter, person who earned off tips..got a place on. Now, they are screwed because you need to show some sorta earning..and they can't do it. They can't afford the new payments after the arm term ends..nor can they refi as they can't prove earnings.

Every week there are more commercials for REDC and buying properties at auction. Ty's crackhead friend went to buy a property that the bank had bought after foreclosure (poor bastard had left 100k in equity in the place)...house at one time valued at 650...bank offered it at 395...property sold at 375.

And, let's not forget the other countries like India, Australia, UK that are also going thru their own sub prime problems.

Just saw this and agree completely. I also have a good friend in the sub prime business, and those boys know the score. His outlook isn't quite as rosy as you friends.

Talking with those guys makes me wonder why I got in my line of business. The (relatively) easy money is in finance - despite all the current contrary evidence.

[GoPackGo]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

And that is at the heart of the matter. There were people in houses who couldn't afford them to begin with. There were valid reasons that prior to 5 years ago you couldn't get a no money down home. This had to end badly.

I am really glad I backed out of buying my first home in 2005 for $200,000. That same home now is worth $180,000 and I would have used an ARM loan to get it. I'm still renting a house, waiting for the right time to buy one with a 30 year fixed.

[Scott Campbell]

I'd say RG's advice about having enough money down to buy a home is looking pretty sage right now.

[oregonpackfan]

Tyrone,

Why do you always refer to yourself in the third person? You sound like a sports star talking about himself.

[Scott Campbell]

Tyrone,

Why do you always refer to yourself in the third person? You sound like a sports star talking about himself.

That's his shtick.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Tyrone,

Why do you always refer to yourself in the third person? You sound like a sports star talking about himself.

That's his shtick.

Scott,

I must ask you to stop appropriating my culture.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Is anyone out there with money laying around checking out the foreclosures?? This housing bust can't last forever. Seems like there are some incredible deals out there right now.

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I live in sub prime nirvana...az..and the mortgage brokers..and I mean real brokers..not the guy that switched from selling cars the minute the market got hot..are all telling me that at the minimum a year. Tyrone's brother, who is a very financially viable guy has his bankers saying pretty much the same.

I dont' think many on this board realize how many bad loans are out there. Those no doc loans were given to anybody with ok credit..so every bartender, waiter, person who earned off tips..got a place on. Now, they are screwed because you need to show some sorta earning..and they can't do it. They can't afford the new payments after the arm term ends..nor can they refi as they can't prove earnings.

Every week there are more commercials for REDC and buying properties at auction. Ty's crackhead friend went to buy a property that the bank had bought after foreclosure (poor bastard had left 100k in equity in the place)...house at one time valued at 650...bank offered it at 395...property sold at 375.

And, let's not forget the other countries like India, Australia, UK that are also going thru their own sub prime problems.

Just saw this and agree completely. I also have a good friend in the sub prime business, and those boys know the score. His outlook isn't quite as rosy as you friends.

Talking with those guys makes me wonder why I got in my line of business. The (relatively) easy money is in finance - despite all the current contrary evidence.

Rosy? Geez, and i worked hard not to appear to be a doom and gloom asshole.

I'm with your buddies...I think we are really going to suffer for quite a while.

Ty's brother has two million dollar properties in N.Scottsdale that he can't sell..or rather he could sell, but he would be financially hurt by doing so.

Ty saw this coming early as Ty had transitioned from being in tech to headhunting. Ty's territory was S.Cali and civil engineers/surveyors. Boom, suddenly firms that were crying for land dev candidates were letting people go. Reminded Ty of the dot com/y2k era.

Business: Agreed. When the market turns again..3 or so years, i may just bail to that. If a bunch of used car salesmen can make 300k why not Ty?