How Voters Think

[Harlan Huckleby]

I hope like hell that he does get in the race! (Especially if McCain is the nominee.)

[Joemailman]

A lot of people think Bloomberg is waiting because if McCain gets the Republican nomination, Bloomberg won't get in.

[Badgerinmaine]

McCain holds a slight lead over any Dem candidate in recent polls. Anyone else and the Dems have an advantage...now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

I think the negative campaigning going on right now may be hurting Clinton, at least among Dems. Obama has moved out to a huge lead in South Carolina in some recent polls.

McCain is running better in those trial heats than the other Republicans, but I didn't see many cases where he had a statistically significant lead (they didn't give the margins of error, but those leads were often nothing but a point or two).

[Harlan Huckleby]

A lot of people think Bloomberg is waiting because if McCain gets the Republican nomination, Bloomberg won't get in.

ya, this is probably true. Bloomberg is not interested in playing spoiler, reportedly, he only wants to run if he can win. McCain & Obama take the wind out of his sails.

This year is not a good one for Bloomberg. The Democrat-leaning people are very enthusiastic about the Democratic candidates. He would hurt Clinton if he could actually win New York, but that is quesitonable. Overall, he would kill the Republicans chances, IMO. I don't think there is much chance that Bloomberg will run. Maybe in a Clinton-Romney matchup there is some opportunity for him, but still not likely enough for him to win. The system is too stacked against 3rd parties.

[Harlan Huckleby]

McCain is running better in those trial heats than the other Republicans, but I didn't see many cases where he had a statistically significant lead (they didn't give the margins of error, but those leads were often nothing but a point or two).

I think your own theories about about how the various personalities will play-out over a long campaign mean more than poll numbers about general election matchups. At this time in the 92 election, George Bush (the elder) looked insurmountable.

My view is that McCain & Clinton are battle-tested, their flaws are already well-known, and they will gain support over a general election campaign. They are both good debaters and campaigners.

[The Leaper]

That is an ASTOUNDING statistic. Could you please provide a link to that survey?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/04/huge_increase_in_hillarys_nega.html

http://www.gallup.com/poll/28639/Gallup-Ranks-2008-Candidates-According-Feeling-Thermometer.aspx

The first one is more dated...but there is clear evidence that 45% or more of Americans feel strongly NEGATIVE toward Hillary Clinton. She is a very polarizing figure, and I think she would find it difficult to improve her favorable numbers much higher than 50% even if things really fell her way. Her spats with Obama aren't helping her image right now either.

So claiming the Democrats practically have the White House in the bag is a real stretch at this point. They couldn't beat one of the weakest (if not THE weakest) incumbent presidents in 2004, so why anyone would think they have it wrapped up in 2008 is beyond me.

[The Leaper]

My view is that McCain & Clinton are battle-tested, their flaws are already well-known, and they will gain support over a general election campaign.

As is pointed out in the Gallop poll I posted, only 8% of Americans did not have a positive or negative feeling about Clinton.

I don't see how she is going to gain a ton of support outside those firmly entrenched on the left. People don't like her, regardless of how well she does in debates. Her spat with Obama could alienate some AA voters if it continues to be intense through the convention.

Also, the American people have a recent history of putting one party in the White House and the other in Congress. With the Dems currently controlling Congress...and likely to gain more control...I wouldn't be surprised if people view the GOP candidate more favorably.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Any strong female candidate will have high negatives. People don't like an assertive woman.

John McCain is famous for having a bad temper. And he can be very aggressive, even insulting, in debates & speeches. Ever hear anybody say they won't vote for him because he's too bitchy?

I expect people will have misgivings about Hillary, but will vote for her in the end when she is contrasted with a Republican. And her base of support is rock solid.

[Joemailman]

I don't think those Gallup numbers look that bad for Clinton. Her unfavorability was 44%. That's not that bad for someone who has been in the public eye as long as she has. She's actually done quite well at luring independent voters from upstate New York in her senate races. Democrats are very fired up for this next election, and if she could keep her unfavorability numbers in the mid-40's, she would win.

[Freak Out]

I think I know how you feel about McCain HH but check out his daughter. Brick House.

[BallHawk]

[Harlan Huckleby]

I always thought McCain's wife was his daughter or grandchild.

[Cheesehead Craig]

The latest attacks by Clinton on Obama rub me the wrong way. He mentioned something positive about the Republicans and Clinton started bashing him for it. Gee, I guess she doesn't like someone who is willing to cooperate with the other party.

[hoosier]

The latest attacks by Clinton on Obama rub me the wrong way. He mentioned something positive about the Republicans and Clinton started bashing him for it. Gee, I guess she doesn't like someone who is willing to cooperate with the other party.

I don't think Obama meant his comments to be a positive assessment of Reagan's politics. I think he was just stating that Reagan's presidency did more to transform the political arena than any other administration in recent memory. Transformations can be good, bad, or a mixture of the good and the bad. Bill's problem with Obama's comment seems to be ego driven: can't accept that Reagan made a bigger mark on politics than he did.

[Joemailman]

Obama didn't say the Reagan policies were good ones. The Clintons have been able to take his comments out of context to make it appear that he did. That's not admirable, but is fairly common in political campaigns. Obama will probably want to refrain from talking about Republicans (unless he's criticizing Bush) for the rest of the primary season. Presidential campaigns can get a bit rough, and Obama's having a tough week. He'll either be stronger for it, or succumb to it.