Wisconsin Primary

[Freak Out]

Obama is the media's new sacred cow, and the former holy bovines aren't taking it too well.

Apologies to the Wisconsin dairy industry for my referring to Obama and the Clintons as cows.

Former holy bovines...I didn't take you for a Hindu.

[Harlan Huckleby]

actually Texans are pretty sentimental about their steer. Some even affectionate.

[Harlan Huckleby]

The Shape of the Race to Come
By WILLIAM KRISTOL
Published: April 7, 2008

I’ve spent a fair amount of time the last couple of weeks with conservatives of all ages and leanings. Call it my very own listening tour.

It began with a series of conversations with a group of Weekly Standard subscribers. Then, last week, I had lunch with the only three conservatives in Cambridge, Mass.; participated in an event in New York with the leadership of Vets for Freedom; mixed and mingled with Republicans before a speech in Michigan; and, on Friday, attended a reception for friends of Bill Buckley after his memorial service at St. Patrick’s, then discussed politics that evening with conservative college students at Georgetown University.

Apart from accumulating a few frequent flier miles, what do I have to show for my travels? I can report that lots of conservatives and Republicans expect Barack Obama to be our next president.

Some Republicans are grasping at the idea that a long, bitter fight for the Democratic nomination will weaken Obama. Their hopes are about to be dashed. After the results are in from Pennsylvania on April 22, or from Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, it should become clear that Hillary Clinton won’t be able to catch Obama in the overall popular vote. Without that possibility, Clinton won’t have a shot at persuading superdelegates to break her way.

So Clinton will probably concede by mid-May. She’ll be a gracious loser (they’ll hide Bill away somewhere). The weeks that follow will be a Democratic lovefest. And the money will keep pouring in to the Obama campaign, ensuring Democratic dominance of the airwaves in the summer.

The Democratic convention is the last week in August. Shortly before, Obama will pick his running mate. He’ll have good choices available to him: experienced figures like Sam Nunn, Dick Gephardt and Tom Daschle, a senator with military service like Rhode Island’s Jack Reed — or, of course, Hillary Clinton. Then the Hollywood-produced and directed Democratic convention will be all uplifting Change and inspiring Hope, and it will work.

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign will be slow taking off. Fund-raising will continue to be anemic. And his team will need to manage a G.O.P. convention at which Bush and Cheney will have to be loyally hailed for their achievements, even as John McCain tries to turn the page.

It’s going to be a summer of love for Obama, and a tough few months for McCain.

McCain’s comeback should begin just after Labor Day, on Sept. 4, with a strong acceptance speech at the Republican convention. The presidential debates will also provide an opportunity. Expectations for Obama will be too high, people will forget he isn’t as good a debater as he is a speaker — and McCain could well rise to the occasion.

More fundamental will be the question of the discrepancy between the image of Obama the uniter and the reality of Obama the liberal. That hasn’t been much of a problem for Obama in the Democratic contest, since Clinton hasn’t attacked from the right or even the center.

But Republicans will. Last week, over drinks, one Republican strategist not affiliated with the McCain campaign mused about how an independent advertising effort against Obama might work. “Barack Obama: He’s not who you think he is” would be the theme. The supporting evidence would come from his left-wing voting record in Illinois and Washington, spiced up with fun video clips of Reverend Wright.

Who ultimately wins? In politics, as in life, the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Many Republicans I know see the weaknesses of their party and of the McCain campaign all too clearly, and assume Obama will prevail.

But a surprising number of Democrats with whom I’ve spoken expect a McCain victory. One told me he was struck by the current polls showing a dead-even race, suggesting both a surprising openness to McCain among Americans who disapprove of Bush and a striking hesitation among the same voters about Obama.

Then there’s the fact that we’re at war. As a Congressional staffer put it, “Here’s something to consider: Although Hillary will be out in May, she may determine the outcome in November. McCain’s secret weapon — among Clinton supporters — may be Hillary’s 3 a.m. national security ad.”

And an experienced Democratic operative e-mailed: “Finally, I think [McCain’s] going to win. Obama isn’t growing in stature. Once I thought he could be Jimmy Carter, but now he reminds me more of Michael Dukakis with the flag lapel thing and defending Wright. Plus he doesn’t have a clue how to talk to the middle class. He’s in the Stevenson reform mold out of Illinois, with a dash of Harvard disease thrown in.”

In a close race, that “dash of Harvard disease” could be the difference.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I heard on abc This Week show that Condelesa Rice looks like possible VP choice. She has been appearing at political fundraisers and meetings that she hasn't been at in past. Could be a smart choice.

[Freak Out]

I heard on abc This Week show that Condelesa Rice looks like possible VP choice. She has been appearing at political fundraisers and meetings that she hasn't been at in past. Could be a smart choice.

There is no fucking way. Well....considering how easily controlled she is it is a slight possibility.

[Joemailman]

Unless things improve in Iraq really quickly, McCain needs to try to put some distance between himself and the architects of the Iraq policy. Picking Rice would do just the opposite. On the other hand, she probably does know the difference between Al-Qaeda and Shia insurgents, so she may be able to help McCain with that.

[Harlan Huckleby]

GOP strategist: Condi Rice 'actively campaigning' to be VP
David Edwards and Chris Tackett
Published: Sunday April 6, 2008

On ABC's This Week, Republican strategist Dan Senor said that Condoleezza Rice has been actively campaigning to be John McCain's pick for Vice President.

Speaking of possible Vice President options for McCain, Senor said, "Condi Rice is an option. Tom Ridge is an option. Although, I think he'd have problems at the convention. Mitt Romney is an option. Condoleezza Rice has been actively campaigning for this. There's this ritual in Washington, The Americans for Tax Reform which is headed by Grover Norquist, holds a weekly meeting of conservative leaders, about 100 or 150 people. Sort of inside chattering class types and they all typically get briefings from political conservative leaders. Ten days ago, they had an interesting visit from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice."

Senor, whose most notable experience was as spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, later added, it was "the first time a Secretary of State has visited the Wednesday meeting. and she wasn't there to talk about the NATO meeting in Bucharest."

George Will, who was also on the panel discussion, said he too thought Rice could be a possible choice. "It is possible," said Will. "In fact, I guess I'm not talking out of school when I say in our green room last week when Senator Lieberman was on he said, well, perhaps Condi and of course Lieberman is very close."

[Harlan Huckleby]

Unless things improve in Iraq really quickly, McCain needs to try to put some distance between himself and the architects of the Iraq policy.

I think Iraq is more likely than not to be a net plus for McCain.

If the provinicial election go well in October, it will be a timely boost of confidence that things are headed in right direction.

The events of the past week definitely gave me pause about the longterm success of our efforts. I can't tell what others think. But if things are moving in a positive direction, as they have been over the last six months, I expect most americans will be OK with substantial troops in Iraq.

[Joemailman]

It's very possible the election would help McCain, but it's also possible the election won't happen in October. If it looks like the Sadrists have a good chance of doing well, Bush and Maliki may find a reason to postpone it. This administration learned (I hope) from the Palestinian elections in 2006 that elections in this part of the world can be tricky things. In less than a year, the mess in Iraq will be someone else's problem, so Bush isn't going to take any great risks now.

[texaspackerbacker]

Very Good article above by Kristol. Like I have said over and over, Republicans ALWAYS in recent decades are down in the polls when the main source of news on the candidates is the leftist mainstream media. Then, when there are head to head debates and dueling campagn ads, and the true positions of the candidates become more well known, the Republicans inevitably gain BECAUSE THEIR CORE POSITIONS ARE MUCH MORE IN TUNE WITH THE PEOPLE.

And McCain is in far better position already than Bush either time or most Republicans this far out from election day. As Kristol says, he has to time it right and not peak too soon.

As for Condoleeza Rice, she would be far and away the most competent person for the job. She is at the same time, a smarter black than Obama and a smarter woman than Hillary. She also has a lot more applicable experience, and she has no issues of honesty, corruption, or extremism. On the minus side, from the conservative perspective, we have no clue where she stands on domestic issues. Also, her strong suit is also McCain's strong suit--foreign policy. I could really see her in 4 or 8 years, though, as the first black president AND the first woman president.

And if you want to see racism, just wait for the horrible things the leftists will have to say about a black who ISN'T one of them.

[Harlan Huckleby]

possible the election won't happen in October. If it looks like the Sadrists have a good chance of doing well, Bush and Maliki may find a reason to postpone it.

Anything is posisible. Malaki said today that political parties with militias are ineligible for the election. Sadr offered to disarm his militia. "Disarm" means put weapons under beds, but that's good enough.

These are local elections. The U.S., at least, doesn't care much who controls the provinces, legitimacy & local control is what counts.

It doesn't make sense to guess about the futur, it's impossible to understand the present. But a positive drift in Iraq is a good thing, and Dems should hope for it too.

[Harlan Huckleby]

the Republicans inevitably gain BECAUSE THEIR CORE POSITIONS ARE MUCH MORE IN TUNE WITH THE PEOPLE.

the polls don't show this.

the Republicans run strong in presidency because they have more presidential candidates. and they are good at running negative campaigns.

[Joemailman]

Obama gets Dick Move Of The Week award:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/09/jon-stewart-awards-obama_n_95875.html

[Harlan Huckleby]

Robert Byrd of West Virginia was re-elected in 2006 at 88. “I’m told that 90 is the new 80,” he said.

[the_idle_threat]

Obama gets Dick Move Of The Week award:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0...a_n_95875.html