VP raffle, GOP edition

[Freak Out]

If Mac and the Smile are elected at least the Dems in Congress will have an ally that does not have a problem raising taxes on the oil companies.

[HowardRoark]

It actually has a name, The Wilder Effect:

Cut and Paste.........

New Research on the "Wilder effect"

Although many considered the poll an outlier when it was published nine days before the Virginia gubernatorial race in 1989, a Washington Post poll showing Lt. Gov. L. Douglas Wilder with a "commanding" lead was among those that spawned a generation of research on potential bias in public opinion surveys on contests between black and white candidates.

The poll showed Wilder, who is African American, with a 15-point advantage over Republican J. Marshall Coleman, a white candidate. On Election Day, Wilder squeaked by with a razor thin margin of under 1 percent to become the country's first black governor.

At the time of the Post poll, both campaigns put Wilder's final-stretch lead at about five percentage points, as reported alongside the Post's own poll.

Nonetheless, the "Wilder effect" - where whites overstate their support for black candidates - merged with the "Bradley effect" - where whites say they have no opinion when they really support a white candidate in match-ups between white and black candidates - in lore, casting doubts on the accuracy of polls in such contests.

Despite years of successes polling just such campaigns, the theory lingers. But a new analysis by Daniel Hopkins may yield a better understanding of the dynamics at play.

Hopkins shows how any "Wilder effect" that existed in the early 1990s has disappeared, countering the notion that there is a systematic bias in such polls. Instead, he argues that the effect that did exist resulted from the particularities of those earlier elections. Those dynamics could return in this year's election, but it is far too simplistic to assume a problem.

Hat top to Prof. Sides from the Monkey Cage.

[mraynrand]

What happened to the Packerrat with the tag line reading "Polls are my life" Perhaps she can weigh in on this.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Like I said, It would appear that McCain is getting all that support from the people who are not so much pro McCain, but more anti-Obama. Just an observation.

it's an overwhelmingly Democratic year, the Bush admin is viewed as bad news, people want to throw the rascals (Republicans) out.

it's understandable that the election is centered on whether Obama meets qualifications to be pres.

not sure about the very latest pols, but Obama has been running well behind Democrats in general.

[HowardRoark]

What happened to the Packerrat with the tag line reading "Polls are my life" Perhaps she can weigh in on this.

I've gort a few $20s burning a hole in my pocket, where is she?

Oh sorry, I thought you said "poles."

[mraynrand]

What happened to the Packerrat with the tag line reading "Polls are my life" Perhaps she can weigh in on this.

I've got a few $20s burning a hole in my pocket, where is she?

Oh sorry, I thought you said "poles."

Big Spender!

[HowardRoark]

What happened to the Packerrat with the tag line reading "Polls are my life" Perhaps she can weigh in on this.

I've got a few $20s burning a hole in my pocket, where is she?

Oh sorry, I thought you said "poles."

Big Spender!

I think it's double this week. All that Republican money in town.

[mraynrand]

Michael Moore on the RNC:

“I was just thinking, this Gustav is proof that there is a God in heaven,” Moore said, laughing. “To have it planned at the same time – that it would actually be on its way to New Orleans for day one of the Republican Convention, up in the Twin Cities – at the top of the Mississippi River.”

Where to begin?
1) Moore believes in God now
2) Moore doesn't understand weather (a GoM hurricane might result in an increase in rain and clouds in Mpls. several days following landfall, but will do nothing much else there) (noe he may not have meant this at all, it's a bit of a stretch from the text, but with Moore, who knows?)
3) The top of the Mississippi isn't exactly at the Twin Cities (nitpick)
4) Moore is content to have the poor killed, just so long as it bollixes up the RNC. Isn't that sort of a Faustian bargain? - But that would require he believes in the devil too.
5) How do Moore, Obama, etc. continue to get away with blaming Katrina on the GOP? We all know who controled the state national guard. (Democrats) We all know who was in control of the city (Democrat). Neighboring states seemed to be able to respond and recover, even without a large chunk of the 168 billion thrown at problem.

[BallHawk]

Michael Moore is a turd. Of course, people do take what he says and then apply it as the mindset of all Democrats.

[BallHawk]

[mraynrand]

Michael Moore is a turd. Of course, people do take what he says and then apply it as the mindset of all Democrats.

Well, when he is continually featured on a Cable news network as speaking for the Democrats, then you have to take your medicine. Who on the Democrat side denounces him?

[mraynrand]

Isn't that about as offensive as the following:

[texaspackerbacker]

Both pictures just BEG a couple of left/right questions:

Where is the left hand of the person on the right?

And how does that relate to the big shit-eating grin on the person on the left?

[Tyrone Bigguns]

But, there are many, including women who see this as a craven move for their vote.

it seems the whole point of a campaign is to attract votes, why would her appeal to certain voters be craven?

And that word "craven", it means cowardly. Sometimes people use it to mean under-handed, or cynical, just because it sounds right. i suppose that's how words get new meaning, from repeated misuse.

I hate it when people say "anxious" when they mean a pleasant kind of anticipation.

E.g.: I'm anxious to start my vacation.

"irregardless" pisses me off also.

You should unpucker your asshole and learn something about the word anxious.

The #2 meaning is:

earnestly desirous; eager (usually fol. by an infinitive or for): anxious to please; anxious for our happiness.

Now, you can stop hating..and start learning.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Something about palin reminds me of peggy hill. Wonder if she makes a mean frito pie.