New Poll

[LL2]

Ok, I couldn't find that poll thread...sorry to start a new one.

This new AP poll shows the presidential race pretty much at dead even. You never really know what poll to believe hald the time, no matter who puts it out. This poll stats likely voters, which I think is key. I think this is going to be a much closer race than most of those polls showing Obama with an 8-10 point lead.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_poll_presidential_race

[hoosier]

Much more meaningful to look at an average of recent polls, since individual polls can be flawed or skewed for other reasons.

RealClearPolitics shows Obama leading by an average of 6.8% in recent polls (Oct 15-21). It's likely that the final vote tallies will be a little closer than that, since McCain has been severely underpeforming to date and traditional Republicans may well switch back to him at the end of the day. But I don't think it's going to be THAT close.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[sheepshead]

I say the Bradley effect is worth 6 points - more in some states, if Barry isn't up by 10 after Halloween, it ain't gonna happen I'm afraid.

[SkinBasket]

One of these elections people will figure out that even the most even handed polls are fucked for a variety of respondent based reasons, and the poorly run polls are doubly fucked. Guess the networks need something to talk about though and it's not like it hurts anyone.

[Joemailman]

The AP poll may be slightly outdated. It ran from 10/16 to 10/20, so some of those opinions are a week old. The polls that have run from 10/19-10/21 show Obama with a lead from 5-10 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[hoosier]

The so called "Bradley effect" is both overrated and dated, my friend. Responses by white voters when asked about black candidates can be skewed, but not nearly as much and not nearly as frequently as the "Bradley effect" purports. That theory also fails to take into account traditional Repubs who might be unwilling to admit to wanting to vote for a Dem or a black candidate.

Polls can certainly be wrong, as the 2000 elections showed. But race is only one factor among many, and probably not as significant today as it was in the early 1980s.

[MadScientist]

Well the two outliers over the last 2 days are Obama +1 and Obama +14. If you average them you get +7.5 which is in line with the other polls.

As for the Bradley effect, more recent analysis finds no evidence for it, not only in current elections, but in the 1982 election for which it was named.

[LL2]

The so called "Bradley effect" is both overrated and dated, my friend. Responses by white voters when asked about black candidates can be skewed, but not nearly as much and not nearly as frequently as the "Bradley effect" purports. That theory also fails to take into account traditional Repubs who might be unwilling to admit to wanting to vote for a Dem or a black candidate.

Polls can certainly be wrong, as the 2000 elections showed. But race is only one factor among many, and probably not as significant today as it was in the early 1980s.

I agree with your statement about the Bradley Effect. I do not think that many people lie about whether or not they are voting for a black person today as they did 30 years ago. I could be wrong, but the percentage that do has to be pretty small today. I'm in Gen X. Gen X and Gen Y make up a pretty sizable percentage of voters today, and I don't think these two group would fall into the Bredley Effect. I would have to be the older Boomer Generation and older, but these two groups tend to fall into the "most likely" to vote category.

[HowardRoark]

Wilder had the same "effect"......I believe in 1990.

[sheepshead]

The so called "Bradley effect" is both overrated and dated, my friend. Responses by white voters when asked about black candidates can be skewed, but not nearly as much and not nearly as frequently as the "Bradley effect" purports. That theory also fails to take into account traditional Repubs who might be unwilling to admit to wanting to vote for a Dem or a black candidate.

Polls can certainly be wrong, as the 2000 elections showed. But race is only one factor among many, and probably not as significant today as it was in the early 1980s.

I agree with your statement about the Bradley Effect. I do not think that many people lie about whether or not they are voting for a black person today as they did 30 years ago. I could be wrong, but the percentage that do has to be pretty small today. I'm in Gen X. Gen X and Gen Y make up a pretty sizable percentage of voters today, and I don't think these two group would fall into the Bredley Effect. I would have to be the older Boomer Generation and older, but these two groups tend to fall into the "most likely" to vote category.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178

[hoosier]

This will be an interesting year to compare polling predictions with actual numbers. ON one hand the undecided voters who can't make up their minds till they get into the polling booth (and who sometimes spend a enternity hemming and hawing once they're in the booth) tend to be moderate to conservative in their political leanings. On the other hand, most polls don't call cell phones, which excludes from polling numbers a signficant group of younger adults, and who are predominantly supporters of Obama. It wouldn't be surprising to see either candidate get a 3-5% bounce between the last polls and the election tallies.

[sheepshead]

The so called "Bradley effect" is both overrated and dated, my friend. Responses by white voters when asked about black candidates can be skewed, but not nearly as much and not nearly as frequently as the "Bradley effect" purports. That theory also fails to take into account traditional Repubs who might be unwilling to admit to wanting to vote for a Dem or a black candidate.

Polls can certainly be wrong, as the 2000 elections showed. But race is only one factor among many, and probably not as significant today as it was in the early 1980s.

how in the HELL would you know that??The first brother on the ticket and the first chick on the GOP side and YOU know how to read these polls? Gimme a break.

BTW every poll is wrong and every poll favors the dems in the last 40 years. Every one. If he aint winnin' by a bunch in every poll, he aint winnin'

My Friend.

[hoosier]

The so called "Bradley effect" is both overrated and dated, my friend. Responses by white voters when asked about black candidates can be skewed, but not nearly as much and not nearly as frequently as the "Bradley effect" purports. That theory also fails to take into account traditional Repubs who might be unwilling to admit to wanting to vote for a Dem or a black candidate.

Polls can certainly be wrong, as the 2000 elections showed. But race is only one factor among many, and probably not as significant today as it was in the early 1980s.

I agree with your statement about the Bradley Effect. I do not think that many people lie about whether or not they are voting for a black person today as they did 30 years ago. I could be wrong, but the percentage that do has to be pretty small today. I'm in Gen X. Gen X and Gen Y make up a pretty sizable percentage of voters today, and I don't think these two group would fall into the Bredley Effect. I would have to be the older Boomer Generation and older, but these two groups tend to fall into the "most likely" to vote category.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.a...09546869309178

Your link doesn't open. Why don't you summarize (or cut and paste) the relevant parts so we don't have to click on your links and then try to figure out what part of the page you want us to look at? After FINALLY getting the link to open I still have no idea what is supposed to be new in this. It just looks like repetition of your earlier post.

[hoosier]

The so called "Bradley effect" is both overrated and dated, my friend. Responses by white voters when asked about black candidates can be skewed, but not nearly as much and not nearly as frequently as the "Bradley effect" purports. That theory also fails to take into account traditional Repubs who might be unwilling to admit to wanting to vote for a Dem or a black candidate.

Polls can certainly be wrong, as the 2000 elections showed. But race is only one factor among many, and probably not as significant today as it was in the early 1980s.

how in the HELL would you know that??The first brother on the ticket and the first chick on the GOP side and YOU know how to read these polls? Gimme a break.

BTW every poll is wrong and every poll favors the dems in the last 40 years. Every one. If he aint winnin' by a bunch in every poll, he aint winnin'

My Friend.

Whatever you say, Muttonhead.

[sheepshead]

http://www.anncoulter.com/