Another boring money post

[mraynrand]

Skinbasket, I haven't weighed in, because I'm the most boring investor out there. If it were my money, and I had a 5 year time horizon or more, I'd look for the most stable, balanced mutual fund I could find, in an area I understood, and park it. I work too hard to put a lot of risk into losing $60k, so, FWIW, that's what I do, and what I recommend to ALL of my clients. I have yet to recommend another path. YMMV.

You and I could get together for an investors yawn-fest. Probably the most risky thing I do is the emerging markets mutual funds, but even that is not a major fraction of investments. I like the home investment because they have been incredibly inexpensive lately, and eventually they will come back - plus it's tangible, and the rent more than doubles the taxes, insurance and maintenance.

[Partial]

You and I could get together for an investors yawn-fest. Probably the most risky thing I do is the emerging markets mutual funds, but even that is not a major fraction of investments. I like the home investment because they have been incredibly inexpensive lately, and eventually they will come back - plus it's tangible, and the rent more than doubles the taxes, insurance and maintenance.

Do you worry about people destroying your places? I've considered purchasing and living in a quadplex.

[SkinBasket]

AAPL is recession proof right now. It's unbelievably safe.

That's what they said about beanie babies too.

[SkinBasket]

Skinbasket, I haven't weighed in, because I'm the most boring investor out there. If it were my money, and I had a 5 year time horizon or more, I'd look for the most stable, balanced mutual fund I could find, in an area I understood, and park it. I work too hard to put a lot of risk into losing $60k, so, FWIW, that's what I do, and what I recommend to ALL of my clients. I have yet to recommend another path. YMMV.

I'm looking for something safe, at least until we have a federal government the markets can trust.

You should PM me what it is you do, as I might be looking for someone just like you soon.

[MJZiggy]

Do you worry about people destroying your places? I've considered purchasing and living in a quadplex.

You have to understand people. You have to learn enough about a renter in the initial visit and checks to understand what kind of people you're renting to. You also have to be handy enough to fix shit that breaks in their unit in a timely manner.

[Patler]

Do you think companies are suddenly going to stop giving their employees smart phones?

OF COURSE THEY WILL! My gosh, do you have any idea what goes on at a company struggling to keep its share price up? First, they will simply limit the employees that can get new smartphones. Then they will limit the ones who can even have them. Then they will go through large scale layoffs. Each step limits sales opportunities for all smartphone providers.

Do you think consumers are going to stop buying smart phones?

OF COURSE THEY WILL, if a recession hits and lasts. There is nothing essential about having a smartphone. If the choice is between food, rent and a smartphone, the phone is the first thing to go. Not only will they not buy new ones, they won't even pay for the data plans to support their old ones.

Obviously there are inherit risks with investing. I'm really big into applying math principals into them. Lots of people look at PE, but I like the much less commonly used PEG because it accounts for growth. PEG ratio is a phenomenal indication for purchasing stocks. Something like 94% of stocks perform according to what the ratio dictates I've read. That's a pretty strong indication, in my opinion.

I hope you realize the PEG ratio is based on predicted growth. In that way, it is one of the most unreliable tools, because if the prediction for growth is wrong, the whole thing falls apart. There is nothing certain about predicting the future.

Lots of financial analysts that are quoted on appleinsider.com are saying that 600 is the new 12 month price, and that it's only going to keep going up. I've read some say that is it the best stock to buy right now. We both know it's ridiculously under valued. Eventually the market has a way of correcting itself and putting it's PE in line with other very large companies (which will make it very, very valuable).

There is nothing new about the $600 prediction. Earlier this year, some were predicting it for the end of 2011.

IMO, it's very safe, and it's something that I know very well and follow closely. Part of the reason I'm such a strong advocate for it is because I follow Apple as closely as anyone. It would be foolish for me to invest in some other companies that I don't follow and aren't particularly interested in supporting, because I won't know when the time is right to buy in or get out.

I agree that you should know what you invest in, but it is unwise to ever think anything is certain. You should also look at how often the so-called experts are flat out wrong.

[mraynrand]

Do you worry about people destroying your places? I've considered purchasing and living in a quadplex.

You have to understand people. You have to learn enough about a renter in the initial visit and checks to understand what kind of people you're renting to. You also have to be handy enough to fix shit that breaks in their unit in a timely manner.

Yeah, and sometimes stuff gets wrecked. But usually you can tell pretty quick if someone is the type to really destroy as opposed to just 'be dirty' and mess the place up. Painting, drywall, even some fixtures here and there is not that expensive. I kinda like the picky tenants, because you know they will keep the place nice. A few extra jobs are worth it to keep 'em happy.

[mraynrand]

There is nothing certain about predicting the future.

True that

[Patler]

Hey Patler..............spill some juice for us................give us 5 stocks that may fall into the category to consider

Heck, I haven't even decided to buy any myself, let alone recommend them to someone else. I'm holding a lot of cash right now until we see the direction the economy is headed.

[Scott Campbell]

I remember being lectured about how a home was a sure thing as an investment.

[Scott Campbell]

I don't agree with this. It's risky, yes, but it's a calculated risk. It's not playing blackjack. There is sound math and historical evidence behind it.

I guess you haven't heard about the MIT Blackjack team.

[Scott Campbell]

Heck, I haven't even decided to buy any myself, let alone recommend them to someone else. I'm holding a lot of cash right now until we see the direction the economy is headed.

I've been in the same boat - for a long time.

[MJZiggy]

It's the holding of cash that's saved my sanity lately. I have the liquidity if I need it. Eventually though, I do plan on needing to find a place to park some funds, but not yet.

[Partial]

You think people are going to buy Apple stock at $1K a share?

Eventually, yes. Why wouldn't they? It's only a matter of time before it gets there. There price to earnings is way out of whack (in a good way) with a company of that size. When this corrects itself, the stock will be worth a lot of money. The scary thing is, with the forecasts analysts have laid out, I foresee the stock continuing to go up rapidly without much change in PE. Apple is expected to sell 150M iPhones and iPads in 2013. Assuming they sell the average iPhone for 600 (They sell for 650 to carriers today) and the average iPad for 600 (the base model is 500, but lots of people buy the upgraded models), that is 180 billion in revenue in a year. Assuming 25% margin on their business (which is in line with todays margin), they'll make 45 billion dollars on the iPhone/iPad business alone that year. That's not counting the app stores, iTunes stores, macs, accessories, etc, which are also huge, very profitable businesses.

[MJZiggy]

There's also the possibility that when the price to earnings corrects, the stock price will crash because everyone who wants one will have one. This is not an economy in which people can toss a perfectly good iPhone to buy another iPhone. Maybe they will, but maybe not. What if everyone who wants an iPad has already bought one and the projections are wrong? Then what?