Clouds on the horizon for AAPL????

[Patler]

From a JP Morgan report:

Several supply-chain vendors indicated in the past two weeks that Apple lowered fourth-quarter iPad orders 25 percent, the first such cut that analysts at JPMorgan’s electronic manufacturing services team in Hong Kong said they have ever seen

A number of advisors have put AAPL on watch lists. Might be time for me to lock in my gains.

[Freak Out]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

[MJZiggy]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

Not many in this economy.

[SkinBasket]

Amazon's tablet is the supposed reason behind the cut. $250 for a not annoying tablet. Maybe it'll even have a USB!!

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/26/amazons-wednesday-tablet-launch-threat-to-apples-ipad-analysts-say/

[Patler]

Several sources are also suggesting that the continuing economic troubles in Europe have caused Apple to adjust forecasts for IPad sales in Europe significantly. A 25% cutback in orders to suppliers is huge. The only way that this is not bad news for AAPL stock is if the cutback is because they are switching to their own new product offering, but so far this does not seem to be the case.

[Partial]

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/26/apple-analysts-rush-to-its-defense/

Not according to the Wall Street Journal. I'm not worried. Apple stock has already rebounded, which means that this news is pretty much bunk. Amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. We'll have to see, they're trying to undercut the iPhone 5 announcement, but they aren't releasing until early next year I've read. That means iPad 2 is the only game in town for the holiday season and they will sell a lot of iPads.

The big rumor is not that they cut 25% of production, but that they shifted it to Foxconn Brazil over human rights concerns. I think that's far more likely than Apple's demand slowing down... they still can barely keep up with iPad demand.

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

Having said that, it will be a stronger competitor long term than HTC, Sammy, etc on the tablet front because they offer a set of services similar to Apple (music store, video store, app store, etc). Proprietary or not, people want a refined, tight user experience. You can't get this with Google. Amazon, like Apple will be able to offer this.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/09/27/apples_ipad_2_build_plans_still_well_above_expectations.html

edit: Just read Skin's link. 3 million tablets is it for 2012? Apple is going to sell 100+ million. #NotWorried

edit 2: Same article.

“We think the next potential threat to Apple’s tablet dominance is not until late 2012 when Windows 8-based tablets could hit the market,” a second JPMorgan analyst predicted just last week.

#NotWorried

[retailguy]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

What goes up, must come down. I'm loving my two new android tablets, even though I've been told they're cheap junk. Seem to do everything I need, and want just fine.

Did you see that android smartphones hit more than 50% of the market in August?

[Scott Campbell]

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Apple Denied Multi-Touch Trademark by Patent Office


By Mike Schuster September 27, 2011 10:48 AM





TOUCHY SUBJECT

Oh, Apple. In your pursuit to trademark every word or phrase related to your company, why do you insist on going after common terms?

Pod. App Store. Lower case I. We can understand wanting to trademark the phrase, "There's an app for that," given the popular ad campaign, but come on. Apples in logos?!

But when it comes to record labels founded by the Beatles, of course there's some wiggle room.

Unfortunately for Apple, this trademark attempt was another miss. According to MacRumors, the Trademark Trial and Appeal Board at the US Patent and Trademark Office has denied Apple's application to trademark the word "multi-touch."

The original filing was made on January 9, 2007 -- the same day Steve Jobs unveiled the first-generation iPhone to a rabid audience. The trademark application was initially shot down by a USPTO lawyer, but Cupertino filed an appeal. Well, the persnickety bunch at the USPTO upheld its original decision and affirmed that "multi-touch" is far too common of a phrase.

In its decision, the board wrote, "Again, simply because the applied-for term has been used in association with a highly successful product does not mean the term has acquired distinctiveness. Decision: The examining attorney's finding that the Section 2(f) showing is insufficient is affirmed."

Buck up, Apple. You'll get 'em next time.

Say, has anyone tried to trademark "phone?"

[SkinBasket]

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

[retailguy]

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

My "cheap junk" android tablet has a usb port. I moved a bunch of files (video, mp3, and ebooks) to the tablet last night using it. I didn't need any special harware or connector cables. My camera synched up right away too. It's probably because I own nothing but cheap junk and therefore it is all industry standard, it knows how to talk to each other, and doesn't require any special cabling either.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

What about the "tight user experience"? I've been told that most people (except for cheap assholes like me) are willing to pay for that.

That amazon tablet sounds interesting. I'm going to consider that at some point to replace the girls IPAD 1's.

[Partial]

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

Long term yes. We'll see. I'm 110% with you that Amazon is a threat that the other companies are not. Competition is going to get fierce with Windows 8 too. We'll see what happens. Amazon is going to need to sell a lot of content to make this a profitable endeavor though. They're either going to be breaking even or losing money on every tablet. That's okay, that's common in video game hardware and consoles are cash cows.

[Deputy Nutz]

Dorks

[mraynrand]

Ten years from now these companies will be handing out the tablets for free, and all we'll be paying for is the content via the cloud. (Thus, the irony of the thread title - the cloud is on everyone's horizon).

edit: We'll be paying for content and Harlan will get it free as a 'basic human right.'

[mraynrand]

Dorks

Meanie

[Partial]

http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/27/sa-apples-ipad-owned-80-of-north-american-tablet-market-in-q2/

Strategy Analytics: Apple iPad Captured 80 Percent of North America Tablet Market in Q2 2011

Boston, MA – September 27, 2011 – According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, the Apple iPad captured 80 percent share of tablet shipments in North America during the second quarter of 2011. Apple has a tight grip on the American tablet market that Amazon and others will find hard, but not impossible, to break.

Alex Spektor, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, said, “Apple completely dominates the North American tablet market, capturing 80 percent share of 7.5 million shipments during Q2 2011. Apple remains a long way ahead of its main rivals such as Motorola, Samsung, RIM, Asus and HTC. A combination of cool branding, user-friendly hardware, entertaining services and savvy retail distribution has made Apple a formidable market leader.”

Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Provided the pricing, screen size and hardware design are right, Amazon can be one of the main challengers to Apple’s dominance. Like Apple, Amazon has a strong brand, compelling content, sophisticated billing systems and widespread distribution. In effect, Amazon’s new tablet product represents a good opportunity to place an Amazon shopping cart in the hands of American consumers, offering optimized access to purchasing digital content or physical goods from the Amazon online store.”

The full report, Global Tablet Vendor Market Share by Region: Q2 2011, is published by the Strategy Analytics Tablet & Touchscreen (TTS) service, details of which can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/3zs57yr.

I personally think 7.5M total tablets shipped is very low. We'll see on October 18th when Apple does earnings. I think they'll have doubled that number themselves. Apple sold ~10M last quarter, and that was every single iPad they could build since suppliers were having production issues. Those issues being cleared up + back to school sales = 15M is my guess.