Clouds on the horizon for AAPL????

[Partial]

Partial;

You are doing a dangerous thing, you are making excuses for a report that was a miss, plain and simple. It's not ridiculous, its a miss. Their first in 6 years.

In another thread you raved about analysts projections on the stock price, now you say their quarterly projections don't matter. Well, guess what, their stock projections are based on their quarterly projections, and that is what their recommendations come from.

In some ways the street's projections are more important, because they should be objective. If you follow only the companies own numbers, you will be misled by overly conservative projections so they never miss. You acknowledged as much when you wrote;"Apple itself is setting expectations of 37B next quarter, so they'll likely hit 40."

Stay objective.

How is it a miss? Apple said they had a "product transition" and lowered expectations. They nailed the numbers they said they would. If you exceed what you're supposed to, it's a hit - not a miss.

Analysts with cool heads are not sweating this. In fact, many estimates raised target price yesterday. Stock has already rebounded to 408. Turns out it was a gross over-reaction yesterday.

The problem with the risk taking analysts estimates is they're too high and setting Apple up for failure since it's a dream stock. Apple says 25 Bil, crazy analysts say 30 bil, so when they hit 29 it looks like a crap quarter.

Still long for AAPL. Still on the way to 1000 absolutely.

[Patler]

How is it a miss? Apple said they had a "product transition" and lowered expectations. They nailed the numbers they said they would. If you exceed what you're supposed to, it's a hit - not a miss.

Analysts with cool heads are not sweating this. In fact, many estimates raised target price yesterday. Stock has already rebounded to 408. Turns out it was a gross over-reaction yesterday.

The problem with the risk taking analysts estimates is they're too high and setting Apple up for failure since it's a dream stock. Apple says 25 Bil, crazy analysts say 30 bil, so when they hit 29 it looks like a crap quarter.

Still long for AAPL. Still on the way to 1000 absolutely.

If you don't understand why this is a "miss" you don't understand the market very well. The question to ask is not if this is a "miss" or not, it absolutely is a miss. The question to ask is why they missed. All financial reports are judged on the market by the consensus estimates of the analysts. If it is judged only against the company's numbers, no one would ever miss. It's the analysts job to be objective.

Anything analysts did yesterday is irrelevant, because it was before AAPL's announcement, which came after the close. However, as I wrote in another thread, the important thing is what new estimates come out after the announcement, and so far those look good. Analysts are seeing it not as lost sales, but as postponed sales which they expect to be picked up in 2012 Q1 & Q2.

AAPL could still be in line for some strong profit taking that could drift the price downward over the next week or 10 days. It's down a just little over 4% as I type this, but could continue to drift negative.

Partial, a bit of friendly advice: You have a tendency to laud the analysts when they support your opinion on AAPL, and ridicule them when they don't. You did both in the quote above:

"Analysts with cool heads are not sweating this. In fact, many estimates raised target price yesterday. Stock has already rebounded to 408. "

" Apple says 25 Bil, crazy analysts say 30 bil, so when they hit 29 it looks like a crap quarter."

You really should try to be more objective and less emotional in your analysis, or at some point it will come back to bite you.

[Zool]

Patler you're being logical. Just have him watch this video and study the lyrics.

[Partial]

If you don't understand why this is a "miss" you don't understand the market very well. The question to ask is not if this is a "miss" or not, it absolutely is a miss. The question to ask is why they missed. All financial reports are judged on the market by the consensus estimates of the analysts. If it is judged only against the company's numbers, no one would ever miss. It's the analysts job to be objective.

Anything analysts did yesterday is irrelevant, because it was before AAPL's announcement, which came after the close. However, as I wrote in another thread, the important thing is what new estimates come out after the announcement, and so far those look good. Analysts are seeing it not as lost sales, but as postponed sales which they expect to be picked up in 2012 Q1 & Q2.

AAPL could still be in line for some strong profit taking that could drift the price downward over the next week or 10 days. It's down a just little over 4% as I type this, but could continue to drift negative.

Partial, a bit of friendly advice: You have a tendency to laud the analysts when they support your opinion on AAPL, and ridicule them when they don't. You did both in the quote above:

You really should try to be more objective and less emotional in your analysis, or at some point it will come back to bite you.

I look at specific analysts. A lot had ridiculously high estimates (30+ bil). Some have numbers right around what Apple had come in (28 bil). I don't necessarily look at the average because as life has taught us the average person is not very smart. I look at what the best and most in tune w/ supply chain sources say.

By all accounts, Apple kicked ass yesterday. Was it a super mega kickass? Maybe not, but it was still a mega kick ass. I'm still long for AAPL. The stock is still extremely undervalued. Postponed sales is absolutely right.

I'm extremely objective. I only look at numbers. No emotion is at play at all. We're looking at different numbers, though.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/19/apple-earnings-smackdown-the-bloggers-got-clobbered/?iid=SF_F_LN

They missed by a little bit. I'm not worried and you shouldn't be either. This is an exciting time to be an AAPL owner.

[retailguy]

^^That ought to be his theme song.

Partial, one more warning and I'm done. YOU ARE NOT DIVERSIFIED. Get there today. Take the profits you've made, and get your exposure to a reasonable level. If you don't you're setting yourself up for a big fall. The risk just isn't worth it.

[Patler]

I look at specific analysts. A lot had ridiculously high estimates (30+ bil). Some have numbers right around what Apple had come in (28 bil). I don't necessarily look at the average because as life has taught us the average person is not very smart. I look at what the best and most in tune w/ supply chain sources say.

By all accounts, Apple kicked ass yesterday. Was it a super mega kickass? Maybe not, but it was still a mega kick ass. I'm still long for AAPL. The stock is still extremely undervalued. Postponed sales is absolutely right.

I'm extremely objective. I only look at numbers. No emotion is at play at all. We're looking at different numbers, though.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/19/apple-earnings-smackdown-the-bloggers-got-clobbered/?iid=SF_F_LN

They missed by a little bit. I'm not worried and you shouldn't be either. This is an exciting time to be an AAPL owner.

You do realize, don't you, that the estimates by which all companies are judged is the "consensus estimates", which for most investment sites is a weighted average leaning toward the estimates of the historically most accurate for the company? For AAPL, that generally includes 20-30 estimates (maybe more).

The article you cited makes it even worse for AAPL, if I read it correctly. Not only did they miss the consensus estimate, they missed every single individual estimate of the 53 reported. They missed even the closest one by 250 million in sales.

In a way, this is AAPL's fault. They continually offered unreliable estimates and guidance, which resulted in very significant "beats" of the consensus estimates (that were even higher than AAPL's own estimates) for the last 5-6 years. I have posted many times that AAPL share price did not follow normal patterns. It often leveled or dipped after earnings announcements that beat consensus estimates. In retrospect, it was because no one really knew what to expect.

AAPL cried wolf once too many times, no one believed them, and the consensus estimates reflected past actuals compared to AAPL's own guidance. Only this time AAPL actually may have been accurate in their revised estimates; but no one believed them (why should they based on AAPL's past?). It resulted in a clear miss this quarter.

In an ideal world analysts could believe companies and their estimates would closely match. Reports would not vary much from estimates, and share prices would better reflect actual financials.

If you can't accept that this was a miss for AAPL, in my opinion you are not being objective at all. Passion frames your arguments. This was anything but a "kickass" report from AAPL.

I will continue to hold some AAPL, but I may sell half of what I have. The stock could stagnate for a quarter or two, and I might be able to find something that will return better. I can always buy back in to AAPL in a quarter or two if their next reports are better.

[Patler]

^^That ought to be his theme song.

Partial, one more warning and I'm done. YOU ARE NOT DIVERSIFIED. Get there today. Take the profits you've made, and get your exposure to a reasonable level. If you don't you're setting yourself up for a big fall. The risk just isn't worth it.

Retail;

I understood Partial to say that most of what he has saved is in some mutual funds. If that is true, he may in fact be adequately diversified. This might be nothing more than additional money he chooses to invest on his own. In that regard, its not any different than starting a business. That money isn't diversified either, but it is an investment in something you believe in.

Maybe I'm wrong and all of his eggs really are in a very small basket.

[Partial]

Retail;

I understood Partial to say that most of what he has saved is in some mutual funds. If that is true, he may in fact be adequately diversified. This might be nothing more than additional money he chooses to invest on his own. In that regard, its not any different than starting a business. That money isn't diversified either, but it is an investment in something you believe in.

Maybe I'm wrong and all of his eggs really are in a very small basket.

This is correct. I have a large chunk of cash in AAPL and an equally sized one in 401K. Fiance has 401k maxed out annually as well in mutual funds. She has her roth money in mutual funds as well. This is about a 4th of our invested money.

[Patler]

So, AAPL finishes the day off $23.62 (5.59%). Not as bad as it could have been. But, it declined steadily from about 10:30 this morning until the close. Volume was almost double both the 10-day and 90-day averages. It closed less than a dollar above its low for the day, which it hit just before the close. There was no panic on the open either in price or volume. A good part of the early morning it was down 4%, but then it started a gradually but steady decline for the remainder of the session.

The next two days will be interesting. Does it level, continue to decline, or bounce back a little? I always expected that at the first sign of anything negative, there would be a lot of profit taking. A lot of people have significant paper profits in AAPL, and some will want to lock them in. A sell-off with slowly eroding price could drag on for a few days as more and more investors decide to lock in their AAPL profits.

I think I will put a stop in for half my shares at around $380, which would be at about 10% below its close on Tuesday. If it goes below that, I think it will languish at least until it's next quarterly report.

[retailguy]

Retail;

I understood Partial to say that most of what he has saved is in some mutual funds. If that is true, he may in fact be adequately diversified. This might be nothing more than additional money he chooses to invest on his own. In that regard, its not any different than starting a business. That money isn't diversified either, but it is an investment in something you believe in.

Maybe I'm wrong and all of his eggs really are in a very small basket.

This is correct. I have a large chunk of cash in AAPL and an equally sized one in 401K. Fiance has 401k maxed out annually as well in mutual funds. She has her roth money in mutual funds as well. This is about a 4th of our invested money.

What partial posted before indicated 50% of his money. It still is 50% of his money. His fiance is not yet his wife. (Technical? Sure, but true).

Even 25% of my money invested in one company stock is gambling. It might be a well placed gamble and it might not. He's frequently said over and over that he plans to use this "investment" money to pay cash for a house. Unless he's planning to live in a shed, that's a LOT of money. Far too much from this perspective to be invested in one single company stock.

It is just too risky. If it fails it has significant life effect. It is not hard to diversify and ensure that you have your investment available to grow for many years. This way? Destruction is inherently more likely. That's my point.

[MJZiggy]

^^^Denial isn't helping either. Instead of trying to find data to support your opinion, aren't you supposed to let the data form your opinion?

[Patler]

What partial posted before indicated 50% of his money. It still is 50% of his money. His fiance is not yet his wife. (Technical? Sure, but true).

Even 25% of my money invested in one company stock is gambling. It might be a well placed gamble and it might not. He's frequently said over and over that he plans to use this "investment" money to pay cash for a house. Unless he's planning to live in a shed, that's a LOT of money. Far too much from this perspective to be invested in one single company stock.

It is just too risky. If it fails it has significant life effect. It is not hard to diversify and ensure that you have your investment available to grow for many years. This way? Destruction is inherently more likely. That's my point.

If 25% of his entire savings is in one stock, that's extremely risky.

[Patler]

Instead of trying to find data to support your opinion, aren't you supposed to let the data form your opinion?

That seems to be a skill learned later in life!

[MJZiggy]

That seems to be a skill learned later in life!

God I'm old...

[retailguy]

If 25% of his entire savings is in one stock, that's extremely risky.

Like I said, "technically" it is 50% of his savings, as he, and said 'fiance' are NOT yet married, and he's reliant on her money to hit 25%....

That's why I said it was risky. If he wins this time, in my mind, it encourages this behavior in the future, and eventually, he'll lose. The longer it goes on, the bigger the loss. That's how folks lost their entire life savings when Enron collapsed!