Packers weighing contract options for Grant

[vince]

double post

[RashanGary]

The reason I like your 5 year deal is because:
(and this assumes Grant is a good to very good running back)


A. It locks him up through his prime for a very reasonable price
B. It makes him happy because he's in a really shitty situation with his age/injury/contract situation.


Take away the "If we treat our guys like shit, we'll fall apart" part and I'd just ride him for three years at bottom rate. However, I think the 5 year deal you proposed is just good enough for us and good enough for him to work out.

[Patler]

The Packers had Tauscher under contract, but gave him more because he deserved it.
The Packers had Driver under contract, but gave him more because he deserved it.
The Packers had Harris under contract, but gave him more because he deserved it.

Between now and when he becomes an UFA, there is no way the Packers will pay him minimums if Grant remains their featured back. It is a totally different situation than with drafted players (especially "first day" draftees) who received signing bonuses and salaries above minimums. They might be forced to play out rookie contracts. Grant would be payed significantly less than they would, if he was held to minimums.

[mission]

im with ya patler... or cliff, whatever your name is.

i love that our organization does that... win or lose, i love knowing that i root for the team with class.

that said, at this point in the discussion, i think "deserved it" needs to be defined. im as big of a ryan grant fan as anyone but i wanna wait to see how he looks in training camp, i want to see him for at least 4 games before we begin talks and i wanna see the stats after 8 before we extend.

if we do anything this offseason with ryan, i think its a huge mistake. bring it up, let him know we're going in that direction but keep that carrot out there. i want to see what happens with this kid if he knows big money is on the line.

be fair. but dont be stupid.

[Patler]

that said, at this point in the discussion, i think "deserved it" needs to be defined. im as big of a ryan grant fan as anyone but i wanna wait to see how he looks in training camp, i want to see him for at least 4 games before we begin talks and i wanna see the stats after 8 before we extend.

if we do anything this offseason with ryan, i think its a huge mistake. bring it up, let him know we're going in that direction but keep that carrot out there. i want to see what happens with this kid if he knows big money is on the line.

be fair. but dont be stupid.

I would offer him a two or three year contract, with a signing bonus and salaries that would pay him an average of a million or so per season. With a two-year contract, that would require around $1 million in signing bonus, and on a three-year about $1.5 million. I would include performance bonuses that would give him the opportunity to earn more, perhaps even significantly more. The cap impact if he is a flash-in-the-pan and flops would be insignificant. If he is what he appears to be, he would be somewhat fairly compensated with the performance bonuses.

[vince]

that said, at this point in the discussion, i think "deserved it" needs to be defined. im as big of a ryan grant fan as anyone but i wanna wait to see how he looks in training camp, i want to see him for at least 4 games before we begin talks and i wanna see the stats after 8 before we extend.

if we do anything this offseason with ryan, i think its a huge mistake. bring it up, let him know we're going in that direction but keep that carrot out there. i want to see what happens with this kid if he knows big money is on the line.

be fair. but dont be stupid.

I would offer him a two or three year contract, with a signing bonus and salaries that would pay him an average of a million or so per season. With a two-year contract, that would require around $1 million in signing bonus, and on a three-year about $1.5 million. I would include performance bonuses that would give him the opportunity to earn more, perhaps even significantly more. The cap impact if he is a flash-in-the-pan and flops would be insignificant. If he is what he appears to be, he would be somewhat fairly compensated with the performance bonuses.

Patler, Grant would never agree to this deal you're suggesting. If he just accepts the MINIMUM salary allowed under the CBA, he will make more than that over the next three years.

1. As a 2nd year pro, the minimum allowable salary in 2007 was $435,000. Assuming that increases 10% with the salary cap, that goes to $478,000 next year.

2. In his third year, the minimum allowable salary in 2007 was $510,000. Assuming that increases 10% per season, that goes to $617,000 two years from now.

3. In his fourth year, he's an RFA. Assuming the Packers want to keep him at that time, the minimum allowable salary to protect him in 2007 was $2,096,600. Assuming the same increase in this number, that goes to $2.8 mil by the time he becomes an RFA.

That means that the MINIMUM he'll make if the Packers don't sign him to another deal is $3.9 million. That of course assumes that the Packers want to keep him through that time.

Edit: Sorry Patler, I didn't read your post quite closely enough. He may go for such a deal if the performance bonuses are significant enough.

The bottom line here is that I've seen enough of his skills, his work ethic, demeanor and his performance to project his future in my mind. Others obviously haven't.

I don't see anything that would remotely suggest Grant is a flash in the pan. He absolutely transformed this offense running behind a questionable line.

I'd prefer the Packers lock him up through his prime now. If he is what I think he is, then that gives both Grant and the Packers the security they are each looking for at a reasonable price.

[Patler]

that said, at this point in the discussion, i think "deserved it" needs to be defined. im as big of a ryan grant fan as anyone but i wanna wait to see how he looks in training camp, i want to see him for at least 4 games before we begin talks and i wanna see the stats after 8 before we extend.

if we do anything this offseason with ryan, i think its a huge mistake. bring it up, let him know we're going in that direction but keep that carrot out there. i want to see what happens with this kid if he knows big money is on the line.

be fair. but dont be stupid.

I would offer him a two or three year contract, with a signing bonus and salaries that would pay him an average of a million or so per season. With a two-year contract, that would require around $1 million in signing bonus, and on a three-year about $1.5 million. I would include performance bonuses that would give him the opportunity to earn more, perhaps even significantly more. The cap impact if he is a flash-in-the-pan and flops would be insignificant. If he is what he appears to be, he would be somewhat fairly compensated with the performance bonuses.

Patler, Grant would never agree to this deal you're suggesting. If he just accepts the MINIMUM salary allowed under the CBA, he will make more than that over the next three years.

1. As a 2nd year pro, the minimum allowable salary in 2007 was $435,000. Assuming that increases 10% with the salary cap, that goes to $478,000 next year.

2. In his third year, the minimum allowable salary in 2007 was $510,000. Assuming that increases 10% per season, that goes to $617,000 two years from now.

3. In his fourth year, he's an RFA. Assuming the Packers want to keep him at that time, the minimum allowable salary to protect him in 2007 was $2,096,600. Assuming the same increase in this number, that goes to $2.8 mil by the time he becomes an RFA.

That means that the MINIMUM he'll make if the Packers don't sign him to another deal is $3.9 million. That of course assumes that the Packers want to keep him through that time.

Not that's not the minimum he will make. He could make much, much less. Blow out a knee next year and he gets only the 2008 minimum.

Your summary assumes he will merit a tender in the third year. If he does merit it, he would easily achieve the performance bonuses I proposed, which I did not attach a figure to, because I did not feel like going in to great detail, but should be significant. I also proposed a two or three year deal. You obviously only focused on the three year part of it. Grant may prefer two years, which would be an easier negotiation for both parties and under my proposal even without performance bonuses would exceed what he would make under the minimum tenders.

The hook for Grant would be in the first two years, with signing bonus and salary guaranteeing him more than he would get under the minimums by a significant amount, AND the chance to earn significantly more in those years with performance bonuses. It offers him injury protection, not unlike first day draft picks get.

If he doesn't play well enough to get the performance bonuses I suggested, he sure as heck isn't going to be tendered as you discussed for the third year, so my proposal would benefit him. My proposal would give him as much or more than what you summarized over three years and would guarantee him more in the first two years. More upfront, same or more overall.

Good for both sides.

[vince]

Yeah I missed the performance bonuses and your post and my edit crossed over. Sorry about that.

Injury is a concern, so particularly with performance bonuses that could increase his salary significantly, he could very well be interested in what you're suggesting.

[Patler]

I would like to see the Packers offer him a decent short term deal, along the lines what I suggested. A 1-2 million dollar signing bonus on a two or 3 year deal, with other bonuses possible is certainly not an insult, and could pay him well while he sets himself up for a big pay day down the road.

Basically, I would kind of approach it like a mid to late first round draft pick negotiation, but for a shorter term based on his circumstances.

I doubt Grant will be a truly elite back, like Green was. He could be a very good back, like Bennett or Levens. Grant has shortcomings as a blocker (which he might improve) and as a receiver (which he also might improve). Until he shows improvements in those areas, I would prefer a more wait and see approach for a long term contract.

However, if he picks up next year where he left off this year, I certainly would not hesitate renegotiating my two or three year deal after only one season.

[Guiness]

I doubt Grant will be a truly elite back, like Green was. He could be a very good back, like Bennett or Levens. Grant has shortcomings as a blocker (which he might improve) and as a receiver (which he also might improve). Until he shows improvements in those areas, I would prefer a more wait and see approach for a long term contract.

However, if he picks up next year where he left off this year, I certainly would not hesitate renegotiating my two or three year deal after only one season.

He's pretty darn close to elite play already. I know, I know, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. But Grant had some pretty amazing statistics. Like the second most rushing yards (after LT) for the second half of the season. Peterson had that monster 200+ yd game, but Grant did it during the playoffs, against a Seattle team that was supposed to give us fits!

IMO he has already surpassed Levens. I saw somewhere that he already has more 100yd games than Levens did in his career! I think the main question with him is not durability.

[vince]

I have no concerns whatsoever about his ability to receive out of the backfield. While the team as a whole has had problems coordinating an effective screen game, Grant's 30 catches this year and 4 explosive 20+ yd. gains receiving have demonstrated he can catch the ball and run effectively as a receiving back when he's thrown to.

If he's a featured back as he's now expected to be, he may never need to do a ton of blocking, but I haven't seen him be deficient in that area either, and with his work ethic, I have no doubt whatsoever he'll be more than adequate in that area too.

Signing him to a shorter-term contract will cost the team more over the course of his prime years, or cause them to lose his services during that time.

Obviously, only time will tell if he continues to produce as he did this year.

[Patler]

He's pretty darn close to elite play already. I know, I know, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. But Grant had some pretty amazing statistics. Like the second most rushing yards (after LT) for the second half of the season. Peterson had that monster 200+ yd game, but Grant did it during the playoffs, against a Seattle team that was supposed to give us fits!

IMO he has already surpassed Levens. I saw somewhere that he already has more 100yd games than Levens did in his career! I think the main question with him is not durability.

Elite backs do it all, run, catch and block. Backs that are great runners, but not good blockers or receivers become two down backs and are worth less than a more complete back. Right now Grant is a two-down back because of his shortcomings, not because they had a very good third down back to use in his place. Levens and Bennett may not have been as good of runners, but were very good in the passing game, both receiving and blocking. Since Grant is more one-dimensional, I put him at their level and not the Ahman Green level.

It also remains to be seen if Grant will be as successful running when teams have respect for the Packers running game. This year they did not. I think he will be, but he still has to prove it.

[run pMc]

IMO

Grant is a good back. Maybe great, not elite.

I agree with Vince that signing him early would benefit the cap the most, but I could see TT letting it play out thru next season to make sure he isn't some flash in the pan. I'm OK with that -- it's not like GB is right at the edge of the cap.

If you think losing Ryan Grant at age 29 is any worse than losing Ahman Green at age 30, I think you are mistaken.

This may not be true. Green had a lot of wear on him when he left town, and that was after exceeding most expectations with his comeback from a scary-bad leg injury. If Grant stays healthy he'll probably have much less wear on him at 29 than Green did at 30. OTOH, I'm not a fan of keeping 30 year old RBs since they decline awful fast around that age.

An incentive laden contract is a very good idea. Either way, I'd like to see Grant stay with the team for a few years, and I'd hate to think that TT lowballed him. The ability to reward and treat players well goes a long way towards recruiting FAs and to having a harmonious locker room. It's tough to win when players are unhappy and the locker room is in turmoil.

[vince]

Here are the contracts for all 32 of the featured backs for each team.

The only guys making less than 3.5 mil/year are still working through their rookie contracts. A 5/15 contract for Ryan Grant would still make him the lowest paid featured back in the league not under their draft contract. Even if you're not convinced Grant is great, you gotta say he's better than half of the guys on this list. When guys like Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney and Joseph Addai come due, that deal looks even better yet.

Also, the average length of deal is exactly five years, and that includes a lot of guys at or past their prime, unlike Grant.

Name.....................Age......Years......Milli ons......Avg. per Year......Year Signed
Reggie Bush............22..........6...........52.5...... ........8.8...............2006
Shaun Alexander......30..........8...........62.0....... .......7.8...............2006
Edgerrin James.........29.........4............30.5........ ......7.6...............2006
Larry Johnson...........28.........6............45.0.... ..........7.5...............2007
LaDainian Tomlinson...28.......8............60.0............ ..7.5...............2004
Cedrick Benson..........25........5...........35.0........ .......7.0...............2005
Frank Gore...............24.........4............28.0... ...........7.0...............2007
Ronnie Brown............26........5............34.0...... ........6.8................2005
Adrian Peterson........22.........6............40.5...... ........6.8................2007
Clinton Portis...........26.........8............50.5..... ..........6.3...............2004
Jamal Lewis.............28.........2............12.0.... ...........6.0...............2008
Carnell Williams.......25.........5............30.0....... ........6.0...............2005
Ahman Green...........30.........4............23.0...... .........5.8...............2007
Fred Taylor...............32........4............23.0.. .............5.8...............2007
Willis McGahee.........26.........7............40.0...... .........5.7...............2007
Thomas Jones.........29.........4............20.0........ .......5.0...............2007
Rudi Johnson..........28..........5............25.0.... ...........5.0..............2005
Brian Westbrook.......28.........5............25.0...... .........5.0..............2005
DeShaun Foster........28.........3............14.5........ .......4.8..............2006
Travis Henry.............29.........5............22.5.... ...........4.5..............2007
Warrick Dunn...........33..........3............12.5...... .........4.2..............2006
Willie Parker............27..........4............14.0... ............3.5.............2006
Marshawn Lynch........21.........6............19.0......... ......3.2..............2007
Joseph Addai............24.........5............12.0..... ..........2.4.............2006
Laurence Maroney.....22.........5.............9.0.......... ......1.8.............2006
Kevin Jones.............25..........5.............7.0... .............1.4.............2004
Steven Jackson.........24.........5.............7.0...... ..........1.4.............2004
LenDale White..........23.........4.............2.5....... ..........0.6............2006
Brandon Jacobs.........25........4..............2.3....... .........0.6.............2005
Justin Fargas............28........UFA
Marion Barber...........24........RFA
Ryan Grant..............25........ERFA

[BallHawk]

3 years, 17 million would be a fair deal, IMO.