Predit what Ted Does... (1st rounder)

[red]

which "god" do you have in mind?

no one in this draft really hits me as a must have world beater. except for mcfadden

Wow, then I must be an idiot for having suggested it, huh, Red?

no no, i'm just curious. i'm not ripping on you

just no one stands out to me this year, i was wondering who did for you

[KYPack]

I keep hearing the same deal. Eveybody wants to trade down this go round.

I can't see a 30th pick having any kind of trade value. In a draft without many top guys, why would anybody want our near second round pick?

[Patler]

I can't see a 30th pick having any kind of trade value. In a draft without many top guys, why would anybody want our near second round pick?

I doubt you could trade up with it, just down, and then it would have to be with a team that suddenly still sees a player at #30 that they have rated much higher than that, and probably at a position they need. It would likely have to be with a team within the first 5-6 picks of the second round, who is willing to throw in their 3rd or their 4th plus something else just to move up less than about 8 spots or so. Plus, there would have to be no one at #30 that TT is particularly excited about, at least no one much better than what he thinks he can get early in the second.

Its a tough deal to make.

[Lurker64]

The only way I can really see a trade happening is if one of the top QBs drops, and either Kansas City or Atlanta (or Baltimore, if they don't take Ryan) want to jump up over Miami (assuming they don't take Ryan #1 overall) to pick up Brohm or Flacco. Other than that I can't really see us trading down much more than 10 or so spots from where we are unless the offer is very good.

Still, I wouldn't be at all surprised for Thompson to trade the #30 overall pick to Atlanta for the #34 pick and Atlanta's fourth or fifth. The Falcons have a lot of picks and not a lot of Quarterbacks.

[Tarlam!]

which "god" do you have in mind?

no one in this draft really hits me as a must have world beater. except for mcfadden

Wow, then I must be an idiot for having suggested it, huh, Red?

no no, i'm just curious. i'm not ripping on you

just no one stands out to me this year, i was wondering who did for you

I think my point is, the way the team is set, TT could throw everything at 1-2 guys. Whomever he thinks those guys are. We have a great team already. He has so much cash it's not funny.

So if TT decides to take a Shermin on us, I 4 1, am OK with it. TT knows his players. I don't believe he reaches. If he trades up, it will be a godlike footballer. That was all I was saying.

[sheepshead]

Re: Predit what Ted Does... (1st rounder)

What will Ted do at #30?

Personally I think he is going to trade down because the skill level from the late first round to the second round isn't much of a difference... I could see Ted trying to grab another 2nd 3rd and 4th round pick for our late first rounder...

Thoughts???

Any GM, I mean any GM would get out of the first round if they could. If something resembling value comes knocking - he's out of there. don't look for it though. Until a rookie salary cap is established-get out! Look, teams are thinking of forfeiting!

[texaspackerbacker]

I have to go along with Tarlam on this one.

The reason to trade down just ain't there this year. The Packers are beyond needing a bunch of players to build up depth.

I wouldn't automatically assume Thompson will trade up either, but if somebody of superior quality was ripe for the picking AND/OR another team was offering to trade their pick for a decent, maybe bargain price, it could happen. I doubt Thompson would be the one to initiate the conversation, though.

[Lurker64]

The reason to trade down just ain't there this year. The Packers are beyond needing a bunch of players to build up depth.

At the same time though, star players can be found in any round. You draft guys because you think they have the shot at being a good player, but you're not guaranteed of anything. If Ted is looking at drafting, say a OT, and he has about five guys on his board that he grades out just about even (any of them have a shot at being a longterm starter in this league), and he has an opportunity to trade down about six spots for another pick, it still makes sense to do so even if we're not fishing for depth.

If Ted is in the first round looking at drafting a CB and he has Cason, Flowers, and Lee on the board with approximately equal trade and Atlanta wants to trade up ahead of Miami to get Brohm, there's no reason not to make that tread assuming it's a good value. If you think guys have an equal grade, you think they have a pretty much equal chance of being a quality player in the league.

There's always a reason to trade down, and it's not just "you're looking for depth", sometimes it's just the best value move.

[Guiness]

Depends on how the draft unflolds leading up to #30. If there is a corner or tackle there of great value, TT will pick at that spot. If all of the first round value is gone at positions of relative need, he'll likely trade down to try to get say a mid second and probably 1 or 2 additional day 2 picks. I don't see him trading up in the first. Maybe he'd trade up in the second round if he felt it was worth it, but I don't think we have the ammunition to move up very far in the first round. 5 to 8 spots maybe, but I don't see the value at #22 that wouldn't be there at #30 that would justify giving up extra picks in later rounds. Especially considering how well TT has drafted in the middle rounds.

I think you've got it here Gunakor. Depends on how things unfold, which is why so many of the trades go down on draft day. If everyone knew who was going to be on the board at certain picks, all the trades would be made weeks in advance!

That's why I can see it going either way. If there's a guy TT likes in the first round hanging around, I could see him jumping a few spots - Cason comes to mind, and he could be concerned Dallas is going to grab him. I can see him giving up a 6th or something to move up.

What I don't see him doing is packaging up a bunch of picks to move up 15 slots to get one of the bigger names. I just don't think he believes in that, and would rather roll the dice that he'll find a starter later (see thread about 4th round or later starters!)

I also agree that he's more likely to move up in the second round. That same 6th rounder will move you up 3-4 slots in the first, but probably 10 slots in the second. Or someone in need of WR help might come knocking. I would think he'd be willing to trade anyone outside of DD and Jennings. Martin, Jones and Robinson could all be had.

[Gunakor]

Depends on how the draft unflolds leading up to #30. If there is a corner or tackle there of great value, TT will pick at that spot. If all of the first round value is gone at positions of relative need, he'll likely trade down to try to get say a mid second and probably 1 or 2 additional day 2 picks. I don't see him trading up in the first. Maybe he'd trade up in the second round if he felt it was worth it, but I don't think we have the ammunition to move up very far in the first round. 5 to 8 spots maybe, but I don't see the value at #22 that wouldn't be there at #30 that would justify giving up extra picks in later rounds. Especially considering how well TT has drafted in the middle rounds.

I think you've got it here Gunakor. Depends on how things unfold, which is why so many of the trades go down on draft day. If everyone knew who was going to be on the board at certain picks, all the trades would be made weeks in advance!

That's why I can see it going either way. If there's a guy TT likes in the first round hanging around, I could see him jumping a few spots - Cason comes to mind, and he could be concerned Dallas is going to grab him. I can see him giving up a 6th or something to move up.

What I don't see him doing is packaging up a bunch of picks to move up 15 slots to get one of the bigger names. I just don't think he believes in that, and would rather roll the dice that he'll find a starter later (see thread about 4th round or later starters!)

I also agree that he's more likely to move up in the second round. That same 6th rounder will move you up 3-4 slots in the first, but probably 10 slots in the second. Or someone in need of WR help might come knocking. I would think he'd be willing to trade anyone outside of DD and Jennings. Martin, Jones and Robinson could all be had.

Agreed, but the ONLY trade up in the first round I could imagine would be to move up a couple slots to get ahead of Dallas to grab Cason. I don't think TT would get away with dealing #30 and a sixth rounder to move up 5 spots though. He'd likely have to deal his 4th along with #30 to move up to #24-27, which I'd be more than okay with should he do it. He does have that extra 4th round compensatory pick.

If he doesn't do that, and Cason doesn't fall to us, I don't know what he'd do with #30. I'd think he could package #56 and #60 together to move up into the upper half of the second round, and grab Brandon Flowers or Justin King to fill our need at nickelback. We need depth on the O-Line, but I don't know what the value will be at those 2 positions at the end of the first round. Most of the good ones at both positions are slated to go top 20. Defensive end maybe? KGB is nearing the end of his contract, and Cullen Jenkins became very average last season after a breakout 2006 season.

[cheesner]

There's always a reason to trade down, and it's not just "you're looking for depth", sometimes it's just the best value move.

I agree. Its like 2 years ago when TT traded down in the 2nd. Posters became irate because they wanted Chad Jackson at 36 and we ended up getting Greg Jennings at 52. TT had GJ ranked ahead of Chad, he knew he could draft a better player later, so he traded down. That worked out pretty well.

[KYPack]

There's always a reason to trade down, and it's not just "you're looking for depth", sometimes it's just the best value move.

I agree. Its like 2 years ago when TT traded down in the 2nd. Posters became irate because they wanted Chad Jackson at 36 and we ended up getting Greg Jennings at 52. TT had GJ ranked ahead of Chad, he knew he could draft a better player later, so he traded down. That worked out pretty well.

I've got guilt on this one.

Jackson tore up at the combines. He did great in all those wierd drills they have, so I thought he was an all-timer. I was pissed when we traded out of the spot to snare him. It was wasted energy

That year convinced me to peruse Packer Rats, & sit back and watch the draft unfold. The basic fan just doesn't know enough about these guys to even make an informed guess. Nutz and that mob really do study this stuff and they come close, but nobody has the data the teams have, so let 'em do there work.

Unless you are a Raider fan. You know they are gonna fuck it up.

[The Leaper]

I'm guessing we pick at #30...with about 95% certainty.

If we did move, I would venture a guess that the chances were slightly higher that we would move up than down. I don't see Ted trading down unless someone gives him a crazy good deal to do so...and I don't see that scenario happening for pick #30. Ted could move up if he saw someone falling into the mid 20s that he felt was a clear top 20 talent in an area of need.

[red]

I'm guessing we pick at #30...with about 95% certainty.

If we did move, I would venture a guess that the chances were slightly higher that we would move up than down. I don't see Ted trading down unless someone gives him a crazy good deal to do so...and I don't see that scenario happening for pick #30. Ted could move up if he saw someone falling into the mid 20s that he felt was a clear top 20 talent in an area of need.

the problem with that leaper is that you can make a strong argument that we really don't have any clear needs

i'd say most of us on here would say that we need a CB the worst, maybe thats because thats all we've been hearing this offseason after one lousy game by harris. it might have just been drilled in our minds long enough, and we've been saying it enough, that we think we really need a CB

for all we really know, drafting a CB or TE, or OG might be the farthest thing from tt's mind. he might like what he has there

we really have no clue what he'll do. he'll throw us a curveball no matter what we think

[the_idle_threat]

we really have no clue what he'll do. he'll throw us a curveball no matter what we think

He's gonna draft a power forward. You heard it here first.